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Server Time: 12/1/2008 7:02:45 PM PACIFIC |
 This hand - LT winner or loser?, DJpoker, 6. Aug 2003 00:25 | ||
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| Ok guys, Just got back. Only played 2 hours due to early work call in the morning, but made $125 so it was definitely worth it. The majority of the take came on this hand and I honestly want to know how poorly I played it. Kill Pot (6-12). I'm on the button - dealt 5-4 suited. 6 callers for $6 but no raise. Flop comes 3 - Q - 7 rainbow (1 of mine) 2 checks - bet (solid player) - call (played every hand) - call (played many weak hands) - call (me) - checks fold Turn comes 3 - Q - 7 - A (4 unique suits) 1st bets (solid) - 2nd calls (wild) - 3rd calls (?) - I hesitantly call Here is where I want to know if my call is a long term loser or winner. I have a double belly buster with a 2 or 6. Those are my only 8 outs. I figure each player with at least 1 card other than a 2 or 6 even though I thought no one really had 2 or 6. So I subtracted 9 from 52 = 43 / 8 = or roughly 5:1 shot The pot had $96 so I was betting 12 to make it 108, which if I have this odds thing figured out - the pot was laying 9:1 for me. My implied odds were large as well, but I'm not sure about that. River comes: 3 - Q - 7 - A - 2. Nut straight for me. First checks, second checks, 3rd bets. I think for a moment, trying to act weak and then say $24. 1st and 2nd fold. 3rd looks and says reraise to $36. I reexamine the board, talking out loud about how there is no flush, so I say make it $48. He called and turned over pocket QQ. He slowplayed the hell out of them and got caught. He said he never even thought about the straight. He thought I had Aces up. I know this is a long post, but this is precisely the type of hand I want feedback on. Please let me know if my logic is correct. I know I won this hand, but I obviously would have lost without catching. Thanks for the critque and please advise or clarify anything I might not have explained correctly. This type of hand can make all of us better in the long run. Take care, DJpoker | ||
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| Re: This hand - LT winner or loser?, WilliamS, 6. Aug 2003 06:31 | ||
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| DJ, I would've folded the hand preflop, even with the callers in front and great position. If I found myself seeing the flop with the same conditions I think I would've probably folded after the flop. You have 9 bets in the pot and at that time the only out you have is a 6. Which if you figure in your implied odds you might could justify a call. I agree with you on the turn. With that large a pot and 8 outs I think you made the right play by calling. Long term though, I feel you should wait for better starting cards to put your money in. If you play those cards I think the flop has to hit you harder in order for you to continue. I think this hand is a "leaking hand" long term. Just my take, Will | ||
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| Re: This hand - LT winner or loser?, McMonkey, 6. Aug 2003 06:45 | ||
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| DJ, Being a relative beginner, my word should be taken with a grain of salt. That being said I think you got very lucky here and this type of hand will lose you money in the long run. The turn bet doesn't concern me. As you said you had pot odds (I believe you still would even if you didn't manipulate the numbers a little ;-] ) I think the reason this hand will be a loser long run is because of the flop bet. As I understand it (if I'm doing the math right), you had 9:1 pot odds on the flop ($54 in the pot and a $6 bet to call). I'm not exactly sure on the odds of you making your straight at this point, but I'm pretty sure it's worse than 9:1 (please let me know if I'm wrong) Personally I find that these types of draws are usually trouble for me, both for the long shot nature and the effect they have on me when I miss. As a result I try to stay tight and steer clear of the lower suited connectors unless I'm in a good enough position (position, table attitude, chip wise) to take the gamble. | ||
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| Re: This hand - LT winner or loser?, Jav, 6. Aug 2003 10:05 | ||
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| I agree. Your turn bet was fine, but only because you made a flop bet (and a pre-flop bet) that probably was pretty loose. Depending on the table you might make a justification for it; but in general I think you should have thrown the hand away pre-flop, and on the flop. If you hadn't got your river card, you might be upset with yourself for going all the way with that hand. But I'm also not sure about all the implications of this hand being a kill hand; and how that might have affected your decision making process. | ||
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| Re: This hand - LT winner or loser?, Big_Slick, 6. Aug 2003 10:18 | ||
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| Hey DJ, I don't mind the bet pre-flop. In fact, I like it. However, I would have folded after the flop. However, if the Ace and three had flopped (giving an open-ended), I would have definately played through to the river without any raising and that many callers. I can't remember the last time I chased an inside straight. You basically were counting on "perfect-perfect" to win the hand. Those type of plays are a big leak for a lot of players. It's sweet when it hits, but that it rare. | ||
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| Re: This hand - LT winner or loser?, Schuster, 6. Aug 2003 12:05 | ||
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| Comments are spliced within. > Kill Pot (6-12). I'm on the button - dealt 5-4 suited. > > 6 callers for $6 but no raise. I'm going to disagree with some of the others and say that I think it was alright to play here. There are enough callers to make your call profitable, as long as you play well after the flop. Beware that doing so will increase your variance a lot though, especially since it is a kill pot. More often than not, you won't hit anything. > Flop comes 3 - Q - 7 rainbow (1 of mine) > 2 checks - bet (solid player) - call (played every hand) - call (played many > weak hands) - call (me) - checks fold So here's the deal. If I count right, you're getting 9 to 1 on your call, and you're 11 to 1 against nailing your gutshot on the next card. But, if any of those cards is one of your suit, then you've got a backdoor flush draw, and a backdoor draw to the wheel straight. To hit either is about 1 in 25, but that measly 4% from each has made your chance of making a hand go up to about 17%, or in terms of pot odds, a little better than 5 to 1. This is one of the *rare* cases where a backdoor draw can turn an unprofitable call into a profitable one. Do not go overboard with these types of holdings, but be aware there are times when it is correct to call with them. If the board were different at all in that you your gutshot wouldn't be the nuts (6 8 Q to your 45 gutshot), there was another straight draw somewhere (like the board being 3 7 T), or a 2 flush on board, you cannot make this call. Also beware that if you are not comfortable factoring backdoor draws, then don't call. Higher variance play means you need a larger bankroll to support the swings as well. For example, if I offered you 37 to 1 on rolling snake eyes, it's marginally plus EV to play, but also very variant. If your bankroll was small compared to the bet, you couldn't play here. > Turn comes 3 - Q - 7 - A (4 unique suits) > 1st bets (solid) - 2nd calls (wild) - 3rd calls (?) - I hesitantly call > > Here is where I want to know if my call is a long term loser or winner. I have > a double belly buster with a 2 or 6. Those are my only 8 outs. I figure each > player with at least 1 card other than a 2 or 6 even though I thought no one > really had 2 or 6. This call is perfectly fine. You've got a 5 to 1 shot of hitting with 9 to 1 pot odds, and if you do hit, you'll have the unbeatable nuts. It would be bad poker not to call here. > He called and turned over pocket QQ. He slowplayed the hell out of them and got > caught. He said he never even thought about the straight. He thought I had Aces > up. He lost this pot for himself by letting so many others in before the flop. > I know this is a long post, but this is precisely the type of hand I want > feedback on. Please let me know if my logic is correct. I know I won this hand, > but I obviously would have lost without catching. I hope I've helped, and I'm definately interested to hear what some of the others think of the hand. Thanks for posting DJ! Lee | ||
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| Re: This hand - LT winner or loser?, mongi, 6. Aug 2003 13:33 | ||
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| I think the key to this hand is that you had great position. This allows you to take more chances in a situation with very good implied odds. You did a good job of recognizing the double belly buster on the turn and correctly called the turn bet. The preflop call is ok if you know you will not get raised although I wouldn't call with much worse than this. If you mucked this hand everytime pre-flop I don't think you would be losing much. | ||
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| Re: This hand - LT winner or loser?, DJpoker, 6. Aug 2003 21:50 | ||
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| Thanks for the responses. To summarize: 1) It seems my pre-flop bet was a little loose, but in this case I had position and there were no raises. If I had the same hand in EP or even MP I muck. 2) The trouble with my hand appears to be on the flop. I did have a loser, but I was considering that only $6 to call was worth a peek at the turn. It was the QQ guys fault for slowplaying. A pre-flop raise gets me out anyway. A raise on the flop gets me out too. 3) With the turn card, I had what amounted to an open-ended straight (8 outs) and had great pot/implied odds to call. I will seriously think about this type of hand in the future. As Charlie would tell Maverick "This time it was successful, but I think we proved why the move was ultimately wrong." Of course she chased him after providing her expert analysis and the rest is history. LOL. Good luck out there. DJpoker. | ||
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