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Server Time: 8/21/2008 1:04:20 PM PACIFIC |
 WSOP & Bad Beats, Big_Slick, 5. Aug 2003 18:55 | ||
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| All of these whiners who think on-line poker is rigged... just look at the unbelievable cards that dropped in the episode tonight. If I was Phil Ivey, I might have considered jumping off of the Stratosphere. | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, tpir90036, 5. Aug 2003 19:43 | ||
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| seriously man. that was unbelievable. i mean i knew that he didn't make the final table but i didn't want to see him go like that. moneymaker might have played some solid poker at some point in the tournament. but that catch along with the brenes ousting were truly once in a lifetime. maybe i can win next year ;) | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, noiseboy, 6. Aug 2003 10:13 | ||
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| Ummm, just like to point out that it was Ivey who had the "miracle catch", unfortunately he was out "miracled". Basically, with the 3 Q's Money was a huge favorite, over 80% I believe on the flop. It does suck to be reverse sucked out, but it does happen. Personally, I would have liked to see both players at the final table, so it was a shame to see Ivey go. | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, Big_Slick, 6. Aug 2003 10:47 | ||
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| Ummm, just like to point out that Momeymaker's whole tournament was a miracle. | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, noiseboy, 6. Aug 2003 12:00 | ||
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| He definitely got a bit more than his fair share of cards; however, from what I've seen so far, he's not nearly the fish that some would make him out to be. He seems like a pretty tough player, who got lucky at the right times, but also made some difficult decisions that a lot of people couldn't make. | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, tpir90036, 5. Aug 2003 19:45 | ||
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| also....what is with that dutch boyd guy? on one show he said he did chip tricks because he wanted people to know he was good so that they laid down hands. then on the new episode he said he wanted people to think he *didn't* know how to play and was just lucky. uh..well which is it? i guess i am just jealous that i didn't graduate law school when i was 18 or whatever. hope i never have to hear from him again..... | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, Big_Slick, 5. Aug 2003 20:28 | ||
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| I think he was being sarcastic during the chip tricks thing. It was all just for fun. | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, mroban, 10. Aug 2003 17:28 | ||
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| I am sure Dutch is a good player, but so far to me he seems really arrogant and condescending for a guy that has never won a poker tournament and was considered "dead money". Am I the only one that thought he was completely dismissive of Moneymaker when he was taking his glasses off and staring at him. Who does he think he is? To me, Dutch went all in out of arrogance on that hand and it cost him the final table. Hubris is a killer in this game. | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, hobbes8548, 5. Aug 2003 21:45 | ||
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| That was horrible. Does Moneymaker get overly lucky or is it just me. Of course they don't show all the footage so we can't really make a real decision. anyways, that all-in call by Moneymaker against Dutchboy with 33 really left me in shock. I thought any sane person would have folded that hand. That's just me. :) | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, tpir90036, 5. Aug 2003 22:02 | ||
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| well he said that he had him read for overcards....although i am very skeptical of that. which brings up another question: these pros mix up their play enough that wouldn't you think "reading" them is next to impossible? i wish there were a way to know what everyone's reads were and see how often they are right. i think that pros reading pros might be a bunch of mumbo-jumbo....i would love to hear other opinions though..... | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, hobbes8548, 5. Aug 2003 23:22 | ||
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| They should hook up some machine to their heads which reads exactly what each player is thinking about other players during hands. They're probably thinking about what they are going to do over the weekend. I think some pro's overexagerate about their "readings" of other players, especially Phil. "I sometimes look into peoples souls". stfu. :P | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, Big_Slick, 6. Aug 2003 05:59 | ||
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| Yeah, I liked his remark last night when he had Queens and his opponent had jacks. Did you hear him say "I knew you had Jacks"? | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, tpir90036, 6. Aug 2003 08:08 | ||
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| yeah. although i still love playing poker....and realize that there is an element of skill (or rather, an element of not making mistakes) i am starting to think that there is waayyyyy more luck and b.s. than i was meant to believe. in my home game, i am a pretty good judge of when certain people are bluffing based on little things i have noticed about their body language, etc. but "i knew he had jacks" is retarded. if he would have said "you have jacks" before he turned them over.....ok, fine. otherwise STFU and GTFH (go the f**k home). i especially like when people try to become expert readers on the spot. like dutch boyd trying to stare down moneymaker. what on earth did he really think he was going to see in that guy? news flash: you can't get a read on someone who will go all-in with a pair of 3's or 8's facing many possible overpairs. so back to the pros....do they show show up in the top 40 of more tourneys because they are better....or because they are the only people who enter into all of the major tournaments? | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, hobbes8548, 6. Aug 2003 09:57 | ||
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| He sais Jack's after he had turned over the cards. Come on, everybody does that. :) | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, noiseboy, 6. Aug 2003 10:17 | ||
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| I could see how Moneymaker could've read Boyd for overcards. Boyd seemed a bit jumpy or nervous or whatever. | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, mroban, 10. Aug 2003 17:29 | ||
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| and arrogant as all hell. | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, DallasPokerFan, 6. Aug 2003 11:05 | ||
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| > these pros mix up their play enough that wouldn't you think "reading" them is next to > impossible? i wish there were a way to know what everyone's reads were and see how often > they are right. i think that pros reading pros might be a bunch of mumbo-jumbo....i would > love to hear other opinions though..... My opinion is that, if by "reading" you mean that someone is performing legilimency (mind-reading), then forget it. But a few talented people have the ability to size up people extremely well .. that "psychic" John Edwards is one .. the things he does are very hard to do and very amazing, but are duplicatable, and guys like Dan Korem have done so, explaining that there's nothing supernatural about it. So, anyway, there are people who can profile others. If someone like this is sitting at your table, don't walk, RUN to another table! But usually, like Dutch Boyd and Howard Lederer, they are just taking their best guess based on objective and subjective information. The more experience and talent you have, the more often your best guess will be the right guess .. see Scotty Nguyen laying down AK and betting 83 in the same session. That's not to say that an amatuer (Moneymaker) is never going to be right, or a pro (Lederer) is never going to be wrong. But the reason that the same guys appear late in tournaments is because their best-guesses are better than amateurs. But it's still just a best guess. I think Moneymaker or Lederer should NEVER say they "read" someone, but should always say their "best guess" was whatever. That emasculates the opponent, because no matter what the opponent does or doesn't do, it can't change someone's best guess. Thoughts? | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, tpir90036, 6. Aug 2003 11:17 | ||
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| well i certainly didn't mean mind reading. also, allegedly john edwards has shills that work the audience for information as well. but that is neither here nor there. i am just trying to grasp what truly defines these big time tournament players. it is impossible to quantify, but i am trying to roughly figure out what percentage of poker playing is skill/experience and what percentage is luck/b.s. | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, chris waford, 7. Aug 2003 01:43 | ||
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| This brings up a good point about watching TV poker. wpt and wsp are both the same. When a pro makes a move its because they must of picked up a tell on the other player. If an amateur does the same thing its because they are inexperienced. Take Ivy's 99 call on the flop. If an amateur did that and then lost the same way he did, the announcers would say he shouldn't have been in the hand at all. Since it was ivey though, it was a bad beat. | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, tpir90036, 6. Aug 2003 08:12 | ||
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| and another thing.... a lot of the beats they show look really bad just because by the time they get to the last card it's in the 90%+ range....but if you rewind in your head to the beginnings of these hands, most of them are 55/45, 60/40, etc. the "coin flip" being determined on the last card isn't that much different than if it were the first card of the flop. it just looks way worse because it's on the river. | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, DallasPokerFan, 6. Aug 2003 11:25 | ||
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| Maybe the exact figure is un-knowable, but if I was a betting man (and I am), then I'd say about 75% is skill and 25% is luck. The reason? Most all-ins, as I've been watching poker on TV where you see the players' hole cards, are generally made when the all-in player thinks he's got 80% or better chance (high pair, etc.) except in special circumstances (low stack, etc.). Anyway, that leaves 20% up to the draw, and some for making the wrong all-in. Thoughts? | ||
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| Re: WSOP & Bad Beats, hobbes8548, 6. Aug 2003 12:16 | ||
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| I think of it more as 50/50 but i'm a nobody so don't listen to me. Just my input.:) | ||
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