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Server Time: 12/1/2008 7:43:42 PM PACIFIC |
 Right move or not?, guinnessman, 4. Aug 2003 11:56 | ||
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| I was in the 200 person limit tournament at Foxwoods on Saturday and made the final table. Seven people are left and I am running 6th with $31,000 in chips but 3rd place only had about $50K with two big stacks $100,000+. Blinds are $10K/$15K and the BB gets to me so I put up almost 1/2 my stack. 3 folds and then a slow shaky raise to $30K by someone who I had seen before and never hesitates with a good hand so I figure him for low pair...possibly A 10, but more likely low pair. I had 10 clubs - 7 off suit and thought for a while, and went all in with my 10- 7.... My logic was that if this guy had a pair lower than a 7, I would be a 44%-56% underdog (+/- 2%) (I have not run the numbers, but I think that is close. I would essentially be betting 16K (what I had left) to win 72K (31 from me, 31 from him, 10 from SB). If I fold, I am left with $16K, putting up SB of $10k on the next hand. What do you think? ** He had 3-3 and I got a good flop with 3 clubs, including the 8 + 9 so I had any club, any 6,7,10, or J as outs. The king and queen of spades ended my tourney and sent me home in 7th. I spent the whole ride home arguing that I made the correct move. I could have hung around for 6th or 5th, but the only chance I had at winning was making the call there. | ||
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| Re: Right move or not?, Eaglesfan1, 4. Aug 2003 12:16 | ||
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| I probably would have folded. You were on the Big Blind though and probably were reluctant to give up your 10,000 but sometimes you just have to. Though Im just a novice and probably would have finished last in that tournament. | ||
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| Re: Right move or not?, shorn, 4. Aug 2003 13:30 | ||
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| Since you are essentially all-in on the bext hand, I think you have to play this for all of your chips based on your read and his position. You were a slight underdog, but doubling up there would mean something whereas if you folded and went allin in the small blind, you were back where you started again. Good play...just a bad result (nice finish though in that crap-shooty event) | ||
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| Re: Right move or not?, 4 POKER, 4. Aug 2003 13:41 | ||
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| on 4. Aug 2003 13:30 shorn wrote: > Since you are essentially all-in on the bext hand, I think you have to play this for > all of your chips based on your read and his position. You were a slight underdog, > but doubling up there would mean something whereas if you folded and went allin in > the small blind, you were back where you started again. > > Good play...just a bad result (nice finish though in that crap-shooty event) shorn, Question. If you played in NL ring games on a regular basis opposed to playing in limit ring games.....what type of game would be the crap-shooty type game.....limit or NL? I always thought that the game with the higher fluctuations and the game that consisted of more "gamble" was classified as the crapshoot game. Example....Omaha 8 vs. Omaha high. Omaha high is more of a gamble type game making it more of a crapshoot. They both require a ton of skill, but I still always thought that O8 was more stable. Please explain the difference of NL and limit. I know limit is more of a boring type grind for a tournament....but a crapshoot? Maybe I'm missin' something here....I thought that limit poker favored the better player...or is that just for long term results? | ||
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| Re: Right move or not?, shorn, 5. Aug 2003 05:00 | ||
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| Dave- Actually, I was specifically referring to the particular tournament that Foxwoods runs on Saturday morning's. It is a limit event where you get $800 in chips to start and a re-buy for the first 2 rounds of another $1000. They cap the entrants at 200. The crap-shooty part of it is that they start the blinds quite high (25/50) and increase them every 20 or 30 minutes by double. So, if you don't have $4000 or so by the first break, you have little chance of surviving the tournament's 4th round where blinds get to 200/400 or so. To me, you don't have enough time to move your chips here, so the "skill" factor is reduced considerably. As far as ring games go, I think limit is much more of a crap shoot (at low limits 10-20 and below) than NL because there are many times when you can't get folks to fold a weak draw for 1 or even two bets. Obviously long run, this is good for you, but shorter run it leads to wider swings (in mt experience). Sure, there are those times against a real loser in a NL ring game where the same happens, but I find it to be less frequent. Steve | ||
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| Re: Right move or not?, 4 POKER, 5. Aug 2003 17:38 | ||
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| on 5. Aug 2003 05:00 shorn wrote: > Dave- > > Actually, I was specifically referring to the particular tournament that Foxwoods runs on > Saturday morning's. It is a limit event where you get $800 in chips to start and a re-buy for > the first 2 rounds of another $1000. They cap the entrants at 200. The crap-shooty part of it > is that they start the blinds quite high (25/50) and increase them every 20 or 30 minutes by > double. So, if you don't have $4000 or so by the first break, you have little chance of > surviving the tournament's 4th round where blinds get to 200/400 or so. To me, you don't have > enough time to move your chips here, so the "skill" factor is reduced considerably. > > As far as ring games go, I think limit is much more of a crap shoot (at low limits 10-20 and > below) than NL because there are many times when you can't get folks to fold a weak draw for 1 > or even two bets. Obviously long run, this is good for you, but shorter run it leads to wider > swings (in mt experience). Sure, there are those times against a real loser in a NL ring game > where the same happens, but I find it to be less frequent. > > Steve Steve, Thanks for your response and your explanation on your thoughts. Dave | ||
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| Re: Right move or not?, chasepoker, 4. Aug 2003 18:22 | ||
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| I think you ' have ' to call here, the alternative is to go the next hand where all you do is call anyway. It comes down to a math question here and you are getting a very good price on you all in. To further prove the point if the guy had turned over his 33 you would have called i guess ? Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Right move or not?, Mark, 4. Aug 2003 19:21 | ||
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| I think you made the right play. You were getting 3:1 on a probable underpair ( good read). You were in a situation where you need to gamble sooner or later. Your only other option was to wait 1 hand for the small blind and then go all in. But even if you doubled up in the SB, you would be right back to where you started. If you didn't go all-in in the SB, you would have such a small amount left that your only chance of improving your place would be to hit a great run of cards to double up with about 4 times in a row. So you were getting 3:1 odds when you were probably a 2:1 dog, your not likely to get too many more chances like that before you lose the rest of your stack. Good play Mark | ||
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| Re: Right move or not?, stdioh, 5. Aug 2003 13:59 | ||
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| Well, if you really did read him for a small pocket pair, then by all means call there with your 7To and flip a coin. At this point it is the right time because being in the SB will force you all in with pretty much anything next hand and you've got a read that gives you a coin flip. Take it. That said, I would be worried that I was in more trouble than that. Just because he is unhappy with the raise doesn't mean he is on a small pair. What if he's on A2 - you're in some trouble there. What about JQ - you're in lots of trouble there. 88? Really bad. *BUT* you're pretty much nailed to the wall here and about to be blinded out, so taking a "grip it and rip it" attitude, shoving in, and seeing how it goes is ok. | ||
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