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Server Time: 12/1/2008 8:34:18 PM PACIFIC |
 Hypothetical Situation..., Wren, 31. Jul 2003 11:04 | ||
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| You have the opportunity to play in a limit HE game WAAAAY outside of your financial comfort level, say a high enough limit that you pretty much have to pool ALL of your monetary resources in order to sit down. If you sit in this game and lose 30 or 40 big bets, you'll be screwed financially. Furthermore, the players in this game are, on average, excellent players. However, here's the catch: in this game, you'll be dealt AA every single hand, and the other players, despite their adeptness at the game, will not clue into this fact. Do you sit down & play? Now, let's change the scenario slightly. Say you'll be dealt QQ every single hand. Now, do you sit down & play? What about AK? JJ? AQs? What is the minimum hand you'd be willing to play under these circumstances? | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., ezcheese, 31. Jul 2003 11:15 | ||
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| What percentage of the time does AA win?? AK?? Anything that wins enough of the time to be profitable I will play. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., shorn, 31. Jul 2003 11:37 | ||
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| I would sit down with any of the hands you mentioned provided that I am good enough to lay it down when it misses. All of those hands are simply too strong (JJ maybe the exception) to not sit down. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., Snorbolus, 31. Jul 2003 11:44 | ||
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| Assuming that we are not talking about cheating here but rather some weird experiment or something. I think that I would, with some trepidation, go for the AA offer. Probably even a similar KK offer. Not sure about AKs, maybe. Don't much like the sound of anything else. But I am a wuss when it comes to money that I can't afford to loose. Snorbolus on 31. Jul 2003 11:04 Wren wrote: > You have the opportunity to play in a limit HE game WAAAAY outside of your > financial comfort level, say a high enough limit that you pretty much have to > pool ALL of your monetary resources in order to sit down. If you sit in this > game and lose 30 or 40 big bets, you'll be screwed financially. Furthermore, the > players in this game are, on average, excellent players. However, here's the > catch: in this game, you'll be dealt AA every single hand, and the other > players, despite their adeptness at the game, will not clue into this fact. Do > you sit down & play? > > Now, let's change the scenario slightly. Say you'll be dealt QQ every single > hand. Now, do you sit down & play? > What about AK? JJ? AQs? > > What is the minimum hand you'd be willing to play under these circumstances? | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., stdioh, 31. Jul 2003 11:54 | ||
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| I would definitely sit if I got AA every time, or if I got KK every time. AK wouldn't be reliable enough - it loses often enough that I could easilly go broke. QQ, same thing - I just wouldn't be in a comfort zone with it. But AA on every hand I would sit with 40 BB for sure if that was all my money in the world. Actually, now that I think about it you said I get that hand every time, but that doesn't mean I have to play it to the river ever time. I'm changing my mind and saying I'll play QQ and AK, but only if other players don't get wise to it...sure. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., mkpoker, 31. Jul 2003 11:58 | ||
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| That's a great question...and maybe it explains why I'll never be a professional gambler: I would *never* play in a game outside my comfort level; one where I could be "screwed financially" if the outcome was wrong. Poker is fun, challenging, and sometimes a way to pick up a few extra bucks. But even if the odds were on my side, I'd never bet the mortgage. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., Jav, 31. Jul 2003 12:48 | ||
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| Absolutely! No matter how good the other players were, they could not make up for such a gigantic advantage. I would do this with AA, KK, QQ, and AK. Anything else I wouldn't want to risk my entire financial stability for. Of course this assumes that I am myself, with my current poker skill level. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., ezcheese, 31. Jul 2003 12:56 | ||
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| I don't think I'd do QQ... AA, KK, maybe AK... heads up, what is the advantage of QQ to AK? 60%? | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., Jav, 31. Jul 2003 13:01 | ||
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| If I got QQ every hand, I think I could play it profitably against just about anyone. Obviously this also takes into acount that Wren suggested my opponents won't figure out that I have QQ every hand. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., chasepoker, 31. Jul 2003 13:09 | ||
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| I would play AA, KK,QQ,JJ and AKs the EV on all these hands is so good that i would just have to play ! Of course this is all dependant on the fact that the people i am playing with dont know this or change their game accordingly. But hell yeah i would take any of the above hands and take a risk ! It would be an opportuinty too good to miss ! Why you thinking of a bit of dealing off the bottom / fixing the deck ? Sweet, count me in which airport do i have to get to ? Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., Wren, 31. Jul 2003 13:24 | ||
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| Pearson International (Toronto). 50/50 split? :D on 31. Jul 2003 13:09 chasepoker wrote: > I would play AA, KK,QQ,JJ and AKs the EV on all these hands is so good that i would just have to > play ! > > Of course this is all dependant on the fact that the people i am playing with dont know this or > change their game accordingly. > > But hell yeah i would take any of the above hands and take a risk ! It would be an opportuinty too > good to miss ! > > Why you thinking of a bit of dealing off the bottom / fixing the deck ? Sweet, count me in which > airport do i have to get to ? > > > Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., chasepoker, 31. Jul 2003 13:26 | ||
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| Sounds good to me..Stdioh you going to be playing ? Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., stdioh, 1. Aug 2003 14:01 | ||
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| I'll be serving the drinks. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., mongi, 31. Jul 2003 13:31 | ||
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| I would assume that you would be playing at a middle to high limit game. In this case all of these hands would play fairly well assuming the game is not particularly loose. I would think you would have a tremendous advantage in a game were only 2 or 3 players were seeing the flop. However, I wouldn't be 100% confident that I would play hands like AK or JJ as well as I should due to the added pressure of possible financial catastrophe. So I would say yes to QQ and up. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., TexRoadkill, 31. Jul 2003 14:58 | ||
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| I'd take it with any guaranteed pairs every hand. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., Risky Business, 31. Jul 2003 15:22 | ||
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| It sounds like you're playing against a computer......as who wouldn't notice that you had the same 2 starting cards each time? It's a trick question, right? You should never play above your financial limits AND you should never play against superior opponents with so much on the line. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., Wren, 31. Jul 2003 15:46 | ||
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| Nah, it's not a trick question. What I'm really looking to find out here is how risk-averse people are. Obviously it's a situation that would never come up in the real world, but it's interesting to think about. A player would obviously have such a tremendous edge if he/she could be dealt AA every single hand, and that would almost certainly entail a very large win at a high limit game, but there is still some associated risk - obviously, he/she won't win EVERY hand, and it's conceivable that it could be cracked 6 or 7 times before pulling in a win. Being dealt any significantly +EV hand over and over again would pull in a profit, but obviously the weaker the hand, the lower the EV, and the higher the chance of going bust (and, consequently, ruining one's life). As it can be seen from the responses, people have varying attitudes toward risk. Some people here claimed they'd play ANY +EV hand over and over again in this situation, one claimed he'd play any pair, and most said they'd play AA, and probably KK. Some, including yourself, said they wouldn't play at all, because it would just be too risky. Anyhoo...just thought I'd post the situation here after a friend and I originally came up with the concept - thought it'd make for some interesting discussion. on 31. Jul 2003 15:22 Risky Business wrote: > It sounds like you're playing against a computer......as who wouldn't notice that you > had the same 2 starting cards each time? > > It's a trick question, right? You should never play above your financial limits AND > you should never play against superior opponents with so much on the line. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., Risky Business, 1. Aug 2003 07:21 | ||
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| Yep. I'm shocked that anyone, anywhere would risk financial ruin on nothing more than positive expectation and favorable odds. Maybe I took your situation more seriously when answering. We all went to school (some of us) and have lived our lives the way we have so we don't have to depend on 'odds' and 'expectation' to put food on the table or fulfill our desires to have a roof, car, and furniture. I don't think "financial ruin" really set in before some of the others posted, and they'd actually back down if it were actually shoved in their face. Sorry to ruin the fun of the post. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., Schuster, 1. Aug 2003 10:15 | ||
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| Well, I think the biggest reason I would do it is because I don't really have all that much to risk! I'm 21, still in college, no car, no place of my own... Risking everything and losing would be easy enough to rebuild, whereas risking everything and winning would be a huge boon! If I had a home, a car, all that stuff... I would probably rethink my answer. But as it stands, I'd jump in that game in a second. Lee | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., BobbyLocust, 31. Jul 2003 16:27 | ||
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| I currently play with all my financial resources at risk. So, in answer to your question, HELL YES! | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., pt_Gatsby, 31. Jul 2003 16:48 | ||
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| I think the answer depends on two things; 1) You need to know your true risk aversion. Since I'm only 24, I would be far more willing to jepordise everything I have (which is... well... yah. I think right about now the 0.10/0.25 table counts as 'all in'!). Its similar to investment strategy. In the big picture, are you actually able to absorb the loss? Can you lose your house but still work a job? 2) YOu need to know the exact details of: Number of bets you have, the chance of you winning each hand, the average money you must invest per pot... and the max/min strategy. (I theorize that it would be to play position based... I don't know if being aggressive to drive out flushes and what not is good enough). If you are aiming to win 40% (based upon 7 people) of the pots (for AA), then the chart goes something like this: (Lose this number of hands in a row) 2 hand - 36% 5 hand - 7.78% 10 hand - 0.6% 25 hand - 0.0003% Since you have a net positive EV, you must be able to play as many hands as possible. The concept of winning more no longer applies. You need to be able to play longer, or rather, more. So, in short, you can play any hand with positive EV, but need to know your win rate and the number of hands you can play with your current resources. Naturally, playing this heads up, I would just about play with minimal backup (having some 80% win rate), whereas with ten people, I would have to be able to play many more hands. For each step down, I would have to be able to play more hands. Where do I draw the line? If I could do this for infinite money, I would do it for less than a coin flip. In fact, I would do 'all in' on the first hand if it would ensure me 'infinite' money (which, it does not), even if my win percent was only 30% or so. Otherwise, I would have to relate it to the amount risked. If I could only double it, then I would require probably that multiple decimal place chance of being dropped out - afterall, to earn double what I have at no risk isn't that bad. However, if I could earn multiple times the amount, I would have to go with progressively worse odds.. and at the same time, it has diminishing value to me. 100x or 101x times doesn't make much difference... Oh well... Just random thoughts. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., Andrew Wells, 31. Jul 2003 19:22 | ||
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| I'd have to pass on the game. If someone gave me 4:1 odds on a coin flip for all my money I couldn't take that bet. The game situation is analogous in that you are going to be a favorite every hand, but you have some meaningful risk of going broke. The risk of ruin would have to be in the 10% range to begin to consider playing. I'm not sure you would be a 90% favorite not to start out with a loss of 30-40 bets in such a game even with AA. I can't do the math, but if I was shown that I was 10:1 against going bust, then it would be worth a shot to try and win the first couple of pots and wing it from there. | ||
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| Re: Hypothetical Situation..., Schuster, 31. Jul 2003 20:19 | ||
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| In a heartbeat. As long as I have enough for a normal buy in, I'd sit at that game for days. Same with KK, QQ, JJ, AK. If I had more than a normal buy in for the game, I'd go with AQ, KQs, TT too. Lee | ||
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