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Server Time: 2/12/2012 10:40:19 AM PACIFIC |
 Nut 4-flush after flop question, johnny, 31. Jul 2003 07:51 | ||
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| I was browsing Mike Caro's basic Hold 'Em odds (http://www.poker1.com/mcu/tables/Table25.asp) and noticed that the odds that "If you have four parts of a Flush after the Flop, you will make it:" are 1.86:1 against. I knew this already but it just dawned on me that this means if you think you have the best flush draw, there is never a time in a limit game when you should fold on the flop. It's impossible for the pot to be laying incorrect odds for calling. Wait. I just realized these are the odds of making your flush by the RIVER. The odds of making it on the turn are 4.22:1 (I think). So, I guess my question is, how loose do you play with your flush draws (with an unpaired board)? To get the 4:1 necessary for the call on the flop you just need two others seeing the flop with you and one of them betting/calling. So if YOU bet the flop, either they fold and you've got the pot or at least one calls and you've got the odds. I'm just wondering if I'm giving away too much money on my flush draws, but it seems like it's rare when I should fold. Advice? Thanks. Johnny. | ||
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| Re: Nut 4-flush after flop question, Guru, 31. Jul 2003 08:08 | ||
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| What you are looking for in this situation is enough players in the pot. You want at least four players with you to keep going with proper odds. If you four flush on the flop, you will catch the flush about 1 in 3 times by the river. If this is the case, you want four people in the pot to make it a +EV move. So your goals are simple: 1)Try to see the turn and river as cheaply as possible. 2)Keep all the players in the pot for proper pot odds 3) Muck the hand if it gets heads-up and you believe the opponent has a made hand. It's a losing proposition at this point. Also, you want to be sure you have the nut flush or at least lead by a K or Q to minimize the chance of being outflushed. You also pointed out, properly, that you want to tread carefully if the board pairs up, but you can't run scared every time either. This is when you need to have a reasonable read on the opposing players probable starting hands. | ||
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| Re: Nut 4-flush after flop question, johnny, 31. Jul 2003 08:19 | ||
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| on 31. Jul 2003 08:08 Guru wrote: > What you are looking for in this situation is enough players in the pot. You want at > least four players with you to keep going with proper odds. I thought you just wanted proper odds. Do you mean you need four others with you to call on the turn? Because to call after the flop you only need 4:1 odds which would require just one person calling/betting since there had to be at least two bets in the pot before the flop. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks. | ||
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| Re: Nut 4-flush after flop question, Guru, 31. Jul 2003 08:59 | ||
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| Lets look at it this way... You're playing 1/2 HE. Everyone folds to you, you call. Only the BB stays. You see the flop and have the four flush. There is now $2.50 in the pot (You and the BB for $1 and the SB for his $.50). BB bets and you now have 3.5:1 pot odds. Not really good for you. Now say the BB leads out and you decide to call. Now there is $4.50 in the pot. Turn comes and no flush. This is where you really get into trouble. Betting is now double which kills the pot odds and since you are only getting 1:1 odds with each subsequent bet, your odds continue to dwindle. BB bets out again. Now the pot odds are 6.5:2 or 3.25:1 and the odds of you hitting the flush on the river are over 4:1 against and if you're not leading with the Ace or the board pairs, there is a chance it's still not the best hand. In effect, worsening your odds. This is very bad. You can see why you want people in the pot. To some extent, you're right. If at least three people (including yourself)see the flop, the odds will almost always be there for you to call one bet to see the turn, but it's clearly better with more. If it will cost you two bets to see the turn, it's usually a good idea to get out unless there are a lot of callers. Also, remember the odds you were talking about were for you to hit the flush, not to have the best hand. In the long run, you have to factor the fact that your flush will not always be the best hand into the equation for getting good pot odds to draw. There will be some times in this same 1/2 HE game where you put $6-$15 into a pot with your flush, only to be beaten by someone with AX to your suit or hit the boat on the river | ||
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| Re: Nut 4-flush after flop question, shorn, 31. Jul 2003 08:24 | ||
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| Rarely will I use the 1.86 to 1 as a calling decision if I flop a four flush (the exception being when I potentially have other outs like AKs and a board of 742 with two of my suit). So, I want 4 to 1 to continue with the hand when it comes to me to bet AND I want to be reasonable sure that it won't get raised and re-raised behind me. Position is very important here. If you are UTG with 3 to follow and you flop the 4-flush, it might be better to check/call the flop instead of betting out (betting out in a very passive game with a lot of calling stations would be correct play, however). If you are last to act and there has been a bet and a few callers, you might want to throw in a raise in LP in order to see the river for free if the turn doesn't help you. You are paying 1 BB to get to the river here instead of potentially 1.5 BB's, so a good value. Basically, as with most poker questions, it depends on the factors involved how to best play the 4-flush. However, position, game texture, and extra outs are a few of the determining factors that I use when deciding to check, bet, call, or raise. Steve | ||
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| Re: Nut 4-flush after flop question, chasepoker, 31. Jul 2003 08:45 | ||
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| Remember the implied are also a factor ( even more so in No Limit games ) it's not just the odds of your flush hitting against the odds the pot is laying you but it is the total pot you expect to win if your flush hits. In No Limit this can mean calling a pot sized bet on the flop ( if the pot is small ) with stuff like a gut straight draw as long as you can anticipate winning a whole bunch of chips by the end of the hand. Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Nut 4-flush after flop question, TexRoadkill, 31. Jul 2003 09:57 | ||
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| I always find it dangerous to chase a flush or straight all the way to the river. I like to have a good pair and preferably a flush and draw straight if I am going to go the distance. | ||
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| Re: Nut 4-flush after flop question, stdioh, 31. Jul 2003 13:01 | ||
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| But there are lots of times when you don't want to draw for that nut flush. For intance, if you think one of your opponents is on a set, then pairing the board will make your flush worthless and therefore it has less value if it stands up. You also have to worry about putting yourself in a situation where you will not have odds to call. For instance, if there is 10 in the pot and a bet of 10 to you and you're on a nut flush draw, you can call in that you'll make it enough times by the river, but if you don't hit on the turn there is now 30 in the pot.and a bet of 20 comes to you and you'll have to fold. If you assume that you'll fold the turn when you don't make and hence not see the river then you don't have odds to call the flop anymore and as a result you shouldn't be in there in the first place. Does that make sense? Yes, generally you can call along with a flush draw in hold'em almost all the time, but it is good to see when you can't - especially if you get into no limit hold'em where the rules change drastically with this sort of thing. | ||
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