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Server Time: 12/1/2008 7:44:12 PM PACIFIC |
 Poker pros or math guys, odds help, palman, 29. Jul 2003 18:33 | ||
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| I'm watching the WSOP on espn...... and I'm a relatively new player but I've been a consistent winner at the sit n gos , and that's virtually all I play and have done better than I expected with them. But granted I don't know odds or the math nearly as well as I should. I think the hand was the one Men was involved where he had 10s7s against lederer's AKo.... The showed the odds of the Ako of winning the hand preflop as only 60%. Can anyone do the rough math that one would do in their head to figure this out? I'm baffled. I always assumed it was 70% if not more. | ||
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| Re: Poker pros or math guys, odds help, Schuster, 29. Jul 2003 23:14 | ||
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| Head to http://prock.freeshell.org/ Download pokerstove, and punch in whatever hand combos you want, and it'll spit out the equity for each hand involved. It's a fun and very useful tool! Lee | ||
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| Re: Poker pros or math guys, odds help, Banning, 29. Jul 2003 23:32 | ||
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| even with both cards higher you are a 3:1 loser, but when they are suited you get a boost. In a book I read recently it talked about when you are nearly broke in a tournament and in the big blind. Lets say the BB is you, and you have 800 chips, big blind is 400. Folded around to button who raises you all in, you should call without even looking at your cards, why? because your 400 against the 1200 you can win is around 3:1 and that is aproximately the worst that it can get unless your against a higher pair than both of your cards (and that isn't too common in that situation) The point is that alot of people asume that one hand totally has another beat, but in reality the worst it gets (within reason) preflop is around 3:1. As soon as you have suited cards, or if they are even partially connected that improves the winning percentage. So that 60% is quite reasonable. | ||
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| Re: Poker pros or math guys, odds help, Bond18, 30. Jul 2003 00:06 | ||
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| Thanks a lot for the calculator shuster, this things great. | ||
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| Re: Poker pros or math guys, odds help, Schuster, 30. Jul 2003 00:49 | ||
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| Not a problem, but I'm just the messenger. Thank the guy who wrote it! Lee | ||
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| Re: Poker pros or math guys, odds help, chasepoker, 30. Jul 2003 03:57 | ||
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| This is a good one as well. http://www.twodimes.net/poker Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Poker pros or math guys, odds help, pt_Gatsby, 30. Jul 2003 09:31 | ||
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| First, the data sheet: Using AKo which do not match the suit of the 10-7 (which is the worst situation for the AKo), you end up with a 60/40 split. The tabulation says (AK vs 107) Straight flush: 0.03 vs 0.19 Four of a kind: 0.13 vs 0.13 Full House: 2.69 vs 2.69 Flush: 2.28 vs 7.23 Sraight: 2.93 vs 6.49 Trips: 4.64 vs 4.46 Two Pair: 23.17 vs 22.47 One pair: 45.30 vs 40.99 Hi Card: 19.11 vs 15.85 Going over the numbers, it shows that while the power of the AKo is greater than 107s, it doesn't combo as well. You have little or no chance of running to a straight or a flush with AKo, and in those cases where you match one pair, hi card, two pair or (to a lesser degree) trips, you are still potentially being outdrawn. Eg: AhKhx hits... A dangerous combination for the AKo, no matter how good it is. A similar, but lesser situation occurs if AhAxxh shows up, but at least then you are defrayed by a full house (which beats the flush) or four of a kind. That reduces the trips to near par value. In a lot of ways, however, AK is less of a drawing hand than 107, but since both are drawing hands by default they are roughly on par. How to calculate this in your head, at a game? I still have problems with this, but I'm getting pretty good now. The starting point is understanding how to relate all the 'conditional' effects, like the value of AK straights versus 56 straights, and the value of farther spreads (46, 36, 37)... as well as those AK, AQ, AJ, A10 and A2, A3, A4, A5. It logically follows that KQo is actually a better hand against 107s, and it is, marginally. That information is rather useless, but its not bad for learning how to judge hands - probably the best way to test yourself. I believe the best hand, short of pairs, would be J10s, or QhJh... Anyway, if you are really interested in learning to estimate on the fly (and its easy to memorise the 2 card combinations - so very much harder when there are 5 cards), the best way is to run simulations that give you the value of particular positions of cards, rather than their 'overall value'. Having two overcards is worth ~65/35, for instance, so having suited vs non-suited is worth roughly 4 less/more, giving you the 61.x% for the lower being suited, and the closed side of AK is slightly less likely to create a straight than a 7/10, in addition to QJ10 meaning that you have 3 cards of the straight for the 7/10... giving you a slight reduction of less than a percent... or ~60/40. By changing the AK to KQ, you would have more of a straight advantage (removing that less than one percent margin, but keeping the rest), and you have a 61.x win rate. --- Note that none of this has any real value in playing, outside of an excersize to determine value. The 'number of outs' is an easier system to apply but doesn't help you if you are able to place him on a particular set of cards. This uses relative value, whereas all of the other charts determine the value against the mean average of hands. The interesting aspect of this is that you learn the value of powerful hands against each other, giving you a slight edge. The current value charts are completely misleading. At the same time, how often would you be willing to play 107 to the end, even suited? The real problem with 107s is that you are beat by dozens of hands (over matching suits, higher card with a ten, closer straights, pairs... its a huge list). The 60/40 thing doesn't really show how bad a hand it really is. | ||
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| Re: Poker pros or math guys, odds help, stdioh, 30. Jul 2003 09:35 | ||
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| Sure. The easiest way to do it is by subtracting winning hands. So first we see that AKo is winning if no player improves. Now figure the odds of 7 or T hitting - about 50% so subtract that from 100% for AK. Now what are the odds that an A or K comes and a 7 or T comes. about 20% so we add that and are at 70%. Now we have to subtract odds for 2 of 7 or T and 1 of A or K, but at this point we're getting into very small percentages, so we'll ignore it (since we're doing rough math). Now it is important to know if the AKo has a suited card with the 7 T, but again rough math so lets just say that the chance of a flush being made by 7T is 4% so subtract that and we have 66%. Now what about a straight coming? Pretty slim, but remember that if we have no pairing of the 7 or T then it is a little more likely (as it is with the flush). Say we have a 2% chance of a straight. And we need to deduct a little more for the pairs and straights/flushes blocking eachother, so we end up with about 62% by my random reckonning. Actually doing the math, apparently, gets you 60% so there you go. | ||
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| Re: Poker pros or math guys, odds help, chasepoker, 30. Jul 2003 09:49 | ||
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| I believe that for tounry play ( especialy NL ) you need to know the odds of the main combinations of all in hands that you might face these are: Pairs vs over/under cards and then all the combinations of cards that you can face ( ie AQ vs KJ or AK vs 98 ) if you have never done this exercise before i think you might be surprised how some cards are not that big an underdog ( for example a 23s vs a AKo is about 40/60 !! ) It is very useful for tournys as you often find yourself in the situation where someone is all in and you are getting, for example, 4--1 pot odds you should call with almost any 2 cards ! Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Poker pros or math guys, odds help, palman, 30. Jul 2003 12:48 | ||
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| yeah, this is mainly what I was interested in, In the sit n go's when they become heads up this will altar my strategy once either my opponent or I are shortstacked. Basically figuring out at which point of my shortstackedness is folding a crap hand actually a bad play because with the huge amount of blinds, and supposing you get a good hand and double up next hand you start off only slightly ahead of where you were before, etc. | ||
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