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Server Time: 8/29/2008 12:18:09 PM PACIFIC |
 Should I bet?, Barry T, 28. Jul 2003 16:39 | ||
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| Hi. This hand happened yesterday. I raise second UTG with JJ. A very tight lady, who respects my play makes it three bets. I am certain she has AA, KK, QQ or AK for this raise. All fold to me; I call. Flop is KT6 with two spades. I have red jacks. I know for certain I am beat. However, I am pretty sure if I bet and she has exactly QQ, she will lay it down. Should I bet? (By the way,I knw the answer to this one). BarryT | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, MozMan, 28. Jul 2003 16:46 | ||
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| The way I figure it, when you bet, you do it for one of two reasons: 1- To get a worse hand to call, or 2- to get a better hand to call. If you make her for a better hand, but think she will fold to a bet, then bet. -Moz "I smoke 'cause I'm hoping for an early death, and I need to cling to something." | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, Big_Slick, 28. Jul 2003 18:28 | ||
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| 2- to get a better hand to call Hey Moz, Did you mean "to get a better hand to fold"? | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, MozMan, 28. Jul 2003 19:29 | ||
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| LOL! YES!! thant's exactly what I meant. My bad! :) -Moz "I smoke 'cause I'm hoping for an early death, and I need to cling to something." | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, Roy Cooke, 28. Jul 2003 19:44 | ||
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| What is it your smoking :-) Roy Cooke on 28. Jul 2003 19:29 MozMan wrote: > LOL! YES!! thant's exactly what I meant. My bad! :) > > -Moz > > "I smoke 'cause I'm hoping for an early death, and I need to cling to something." | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, MozMan, 28. Jul 2003 22:54 | ||
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| Good old fashioned tobacco. I'm too old for the kid stuff any more... ;) -Moz "I smoke 'cause I'm hoping for an early death, and I need to cling to something." | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, Big_Slick, 28. Jul 2003 19:47 | ||
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| LOL... I thought you were talking about some advanced play. | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, MozMan, 28. Jul 2003 22:54 | ||
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| Yeah, some of plays are so advanced I don't even understand them! :P -Moz "I smoke 'cause I'm hoping for an early death, and I need to cling to something." | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, mroban, 29. Jul 2003 07:03 | ||
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| whew, that almost set me back a few months! I think betting to get a better hand to call is a strategy used by many at Party Poker though. | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, mkpoker, 28. Jul 2003 17:58 | ||
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| You should bet without hesitation. I'm sure someone will tell me why this analysis is wrong, but here goes: By your account, you think she *must* be on one of four hands (AA, KK, QQ, or AK). There are 6 ways to make AA or QQ, but only 3 to make KK in this case (because a K is on the board). Similarly, there are only 12 ways to make AK with a K out. This means she has one of 27 possible card combinations. And if she has any QQ (6 permutations), she'll fold. In other words, there's a 27:6 (4.3:1) chance that she'll fold if you bet. In the pot right now, there are at least 6 bets (probably more with the blinds, but you don't say). So your pot odds are least 6:1. 6:1 is better than 4.3:1, so you should bet every time. | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, Roy Cooke, 28. Jul 2003 18:57 | ||
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| Hi Your math is slightly incorrect.....You are right there are 27 combinations....and in 6 of them she will fold...So you are 6-21 to make her fold....3-1/2-1underdog!! Roy Cooke Roy on 28. Jul 2003 17:58 mkpoker wrote: > You should bet without hesitation. I'm sure someone will tell me why this analysis > is wrong, but here goes: > > By your account, you think she *must* be on one of four hands (AA, KK, QQ, or AK). > There are 6 ways to make AA or QQ, but only 3 to make KK in this case (because a K is > on the board). Similarly, there are only 12 ways to make AK with a K out. This > means she has one of 27 possible card combinations. And if she has any QQ (6 > permutations), she'll fold. In other words, there's a 27:6 (4.3:1) chance that > she'll fold if you bet. > > In the pot right now, there are at least 6 bets (probably more with the blinds, but > you don't say). So your pot odds are least 6:1. 6:1 is better than 4.3:1, so you > should bet every time. | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, stdioh, 29. Jul 2003 11:51 | ||
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| Nonetheless, she will bet any of the possible hands here if you check and you can fold her off more with a checkraise. I think that adding the chance to fold her off AK makes up for the additional small bet. | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, Big_Slick, 28. Jul 2003 18:24 | ||
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| If you are sure she will fold if she holds QQ (or less), you need to bet. The pot justifies this move and it will only cost you a half bet at that. | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, Roy Cooke, 28. Jul 2003 18:46 | ||
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| Well Barry you are 21-6 underdog that she has QQ.....The pot is laying you more than that.....You should bet.....It is not even close! Roy Cooke on 28. Jul 2003 16:39 Barry T wrote: > Hi. This hand happened yesterday. I raise second UTG with JJ. A very tight > lady, who respects my play makes it three bets. I am certain she has AA, KK, QQ > or AK for this raise. > > All fold to me; I call. Flop is KT6 with two spades. I have red jacks. > > I know for certain I am beat. However, I am pretty sure if I bet and she has > exactly QQ, she will lay it down. > > Should I bet? > > (By the way,I knw the answer to this one). > > BarryT | ||
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| Results, Barry T, 28. Jul 2003 21:39 | ||
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| Hi. Yes, I should bet. I thought this was an interesting math problem, of the sort not usually found at the table (where the math is usually less clear cut) but frequently found in texts and columns. Even if I am only 60% sure she will fold queens, I should bet. It can never cost me more than one small bet, becuse there is no way I ever put another chip in (unless she calls and I spike a Jack). In practice, I did bet. For the sake of the lesson (I guess), she SHOWED me her queens before she mucked them. As my friend Roy Cooke says, life is good. Congratulations to MKPOKER for being the first to observe and communicate the math. BarryT | ||
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| Re: Results, Snorbolus, 29. Jul 2003 06:09 | ||
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| Looking at the problem from your opponent's perspective, is she right to fold her queens when you bet? She must put you on any of: AA (6), KK (3), QQ (1), JJ (6), TT (3), AK (12), AQs (2), AJs (4), KQs (1). That makes 38 possible holdings, 25 of which are currently ahead of QQ, 12 are behind and the other QQ ties. That makes her only about a 2:1 underdog to be ahead. In fact, when I ran this matchup on pokercalculator, QQ was about a 2:1 underdog to win at showdown, after a KT6 flop. Should she have considered raising your bet on the flop? Snorbolus on 28. Jul 2003 21:39 Barry T wrote: > Hi. Yes, I should bet. I thought this was an interesting math problem, of the sort not > usually found at the table (where the math is usually less clear cut) but frequently > found in texts and columns. Even if I am only 60% sure she will fold queens, I should > bet. It can never cost me more than one small bet, becuse there is no way I ever put > another chip in (unless she calls and I spike a Jack). > > In practice, I did bet. For the sake of the lesson (I guess), she SHOWED me her queens > before she mucked them. As my friend Roy Cooke says, life is good. > > Congratulations to MKPOKER for being the first to observe and communicate the math. > > BarryT | ||
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| Re: Results, Barry T, 29. Jul 2003 10:08 | ||
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| Hi. Her problem is way different from two perspectives: 1 - She has to potentially risk five more small bets to find out if she is right, while I am only risking one. 2 - She needs to understand my tendencies. For example, take your calculation. Even if she is right to call all the way if I have all of those hands, I do not have to keep betting them. For arguements sake, I will always bet the ones I am ahead, but only sometimes continue betting the ones I am behind. Well, now she can call the bet on the flop, and fold on the turn if I keep betting. (Much better than what she did). But if I sometimes keep betting hands that are behind (will I?), she has a bigger problem. Of course, if she thinks I will ONLY bet hands that can beat queens(which she did), then she should clearly fold. I faced this problem two nights ago. I raised from early position with red QQ, and was three bet out of big blind. The flop had the inevitable king and two spades. The blind bet, I raised, he called. We both checked the turn when a spade fell, and we both checked the river when the 4th spade came. He won with three kings. I hope this helps. BarryT | ||
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| Re: Results, Snorbolus, 29. Jul 2003 11:58 | ||
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| Thanks for the reply. It does help. I understand that her problem is different. I was trying to decide if, even if she knew that you were the type of player who might try to pick up the pot by betting as you did, she might still be forced to fold because of the chance that your hand was good. I was thinking: raise the flop then fold if you call and bet the turn. That still leaves the problem of what to do if if you call the raise on the flop, then bet the river after you both check the turn. By betting the flop you certainlly put her in a bad position when she has QQ. Snorbolus on 29. Jul 2003 10:08 Barry T wrote: > Hi. Her problem is way different from two perspectives: > > 1 - She has to potentially risk five more small bets to find out if she is right, while I am only > risking one. > > 2 - She needs to understand my tendencies. For example, take your calculation. Even if she is > right to call all the way if I have all of those hands, I do not have to keep betting them. For > arguements sake, I will always bet the ones I am ahead, but only sometimes continue betting the ones > I am behind. Well, now she can call the bet on the flop, and fold on the turn if I keep betting. > (Much better than what she did). But if I sometimes keep betting hands that are behind (will I?), > she has a bigger problem. Of course, if she thinks I will ONLY bet hands that can beat queens(which > she did), then she should clearly fold. > > I faced this problem two nights ago. I raised from early position with red QQ, and was three bet > out of big blind. The flop had the inevitable king and two spades. The blind bet, I raised, he > called. We both checked the turn when a spade fell, and we both checked the river when the 4th spade > came. He won with three kings. > > I hope this helps. > > BarryT > | ||
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| Re: Should I bet? - Math, beigs, 29. Jul 2003 09:02 | ||
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| is there anyway to easily practice the math? It hurts my brain to sit their and try to calculate the odds of a player folding. I know how you guys do it, but can I practice this with Turbo or something? What's 'pokercalculator'? Thanks, beigs on 28. Jul 2003 18:46 Roy Cooke wrote: > Well Barry you are 21-6 underdog that she has QQ.....The pot is laying you more than > that.....You should bet.....It is not even close! > > Roy Cooke > > on 28. Jul 2003 16:39 Barry T wrote: > > Hi. This hand happened yesterday. I raise second UTG with JJ. A very tight > > lady, who respects my play makes it three bets. I am certain she has AA, KK, QQ > > > or AK for this raise. > > > > All fold to me; I call. Flop is KT6 with two spades. I have red jacks. > > > > I know for certain I am beat. However, I am pretty sure if I bet and she has > > exactly QQ, she will lay it down. > > > > Should I bet? > > > > (By the way,I knw the answer to this one). > > > > BarryT | ||
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| Re: Should I bet? - Math, Barry T, 29. Jul 2003 09:55 | ||
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| Hi, If there is an easy way,I have not found it. Taking a good statistics course might help, though. I mostly work the problems longhand after the sessions. As Barbie said, "Ouch! Math is hard." BarryT | ||
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| Re: Should I bet? - Math, Jav, 29. Jul 2003 10:33 | ||
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| Lol, is that a Simpsons reference? | ||
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| Re: Should I bet? - Math, Barry T, 29. Jul 2003 10:45 | ||
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| Hi. In 2000, Mattel shipped an electronic talking Barbie which said "Math is hard" as well as some other things. Women's groups and educational types protested that this perpetuated the sterotype that girls cannot do math. So Mattel RECALLED all of the dolls and replaced them with, I guess, smarter ones. BarryT | ||
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| Re: Should I bet? - Math, stdioh, 29. Jul 2003 11:53 | ||
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| There was also a Simpsons reference that referred to this with the Malibu Stacy doll that said such things as, "Lets go to the mall." - of course one of them said, "My spidey sense is tingling." But indeed, it was a real case and I remember it well. | ||
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| Re: Should I bet? - Math, Jav, 29. Jul 2003 13:02 | ||
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| I can see some people in a room laughing about making a barbie say that math is hard. But how does that concept ever get created into a product? You would think that someone with half a brain would see the problems that were going to arise when it hit the shelves. | ||
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| Re: Should I bet? - Math, Risky Business, 29. Jul 2003 10:48 | ||
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| If it were the Simpsons, it would have been Malibu Stacy. I'm sorry that I know that. on 29. Jul 2003 10:33 Jav wrote: > Lol, is that a Simpsons reference? | ||
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| Re: Should I bet? - Math, Snorbolus, 29. Jul 2003 11:37 | ||
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| Pokercalculator is a freeware program that calculates or simulates win frequencies at showdown for several different poker variations. It is a very nice program: http://koti.mbnet.fi/jraevaar/pokercalculator/ I like to use the pokercalculator simulation feature to calculate outcomes where there are too many possibilities to do the maths myself. There is however, a lot to be said for calculating poker probabilities for yourself whenever possible. I find that doing this gives me much more of a "feel" for how to think about these situations than does just getting the answer handed to me. Snorbolus on 29. Jul 2003 09:02 beigs wrote: > > is there anyway to easily practice the math? It hurts my brain to sit their and try to > calculate the odds of a player folding. I know how you guys do it, but can I practice > this with Turbo or something? What's 'pokercalculator'? Thanks, > > beigs > > on 28. Jul 2003 18:46 Roy Cooke wrote: > > Well Barry you are 21-6 underdog that she has QQ.....The pot is laying you more than > > that.....You should bet.....It is not even close! > > > > Roy Cooke > > > > on 28. Jul 2003 16:39 Barry T wrote: > > > Hi. This hand happened yesterday. I raise second UTG with JJ. A very tight > > > lady, who respects my play makes it three bets. I am certain she has AA, KK, QQ > > > > > or AK for this raise. > > > > > > All fold to me; I call. Flop is KT6 with two spades. I have red jacks. > > > > > > I know for certain I am beat. However, I am pretty sure if I bet and she has > > > exactly QQ, she will lay it down. > > > > > > Should I bet? > > > > > > (By the way,I knw the answer to this one). > > > > > > BarryT | ||
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| Should I Bet?: Question back to Barry T, mkpoker, 29. Jul 2003 09:14 | ||
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| Thanks for the question. A relief to get one right (at least mostly right) for a change! But your post raised an interesting question for me, and I suppose, for other less experienced players: When you're at the table, in real time, do you calculate answers to problems like these with precision or do you know by glancing at the situation what the right result is? It took me a good 2-3 minutes to figure an answer to your problem, and obviously, that's not time you can take at the table. Indeed, I've read somewhere (TJ Cloutier, I think) that when you see opponents taking time to calculate pot odds, it's a highly reliable tell (you can put opponents on a good hand, but not one that's good enough to bet without thinking). So I'm curious, when you made your bet, did you know the right odds precisely, or was it an educated estimate? | ||
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| Re: Should I Bet?: Question back to Barry T, Barry T, 29. Jul 2003 09:47 | ||
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| Hi. Good question. I did not take time to compute the exact odds at the table for this example, and in fact I rarely take the time at the table. But I have worked out this and similar problems both before and after sessions, and I knew the odds for this were not even close. And, hey, even I was wrong by a little, it was only a fraction of a small bet I was risking. And when I did the exact math after the fact I would adjust. Once you get into the habit of reviewing your sessions, calculating close decisions regardless of how long it takes, you begin to get a very good feel for it at the table. Plus, you very seldom get such a pure math problem. When you have to factor in the tendencies of your opponent(s), you are always making estimates. Again, you can play with the numbers between sessions, so you get quicker and more confident at the table. But you should be able to know at a glance how many of which kinds of hands might be against you based on your hand and the board. this fact is critical to hand reading. BarryT | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, stdioh, 29. Jul 2003 11:48 | ||
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| Hard to play this. I would say that betting out would be a mistake because it is much more likely to get her calling or raising than folding and there isn't that much money in the pot that you need to get fancy. I see nothing wrong here with check-folding. That said, better than betting out would be checkraising. If you check she will certainly bet any hand that she could have raised preflop with and your checkraise will fold her off her queens plus win you the extra bet. It will *very* likely fold her off her AK as she'll put you on 2pair or more likely a set. If she herself has AA or a set, she'll almost certainly 3-bet at which point you can just let it go. That said, I think I still favour the check-fold here, but I think that a checkraise is better than a leading bet. | ||
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| Re: Should I bet?, LJH, 30. Jul 2003 11:08 | ||
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| barryt, absolutely. ljh | ||
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