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Server Time: 12/1/2008 8:09:31 PM PACIFIC |
 My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, Mark Gregorich, 27. Jul 2003 21:44 | ||
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| Hello everyone. I played the $1k no limit tourney at the Orleans today (great turnout - around 230 players give or take a few). When we were down to 20 players, a key hand developed for me. I started the hand with about $25k, with the blinds at $700-$1500 and a $300 ante (very high ante in relation to the blinds). After two players passed, I opened for $5000 with QQ (aka "Driving back to Henderson"). The small blind, who covered me, made it 15k. This player had been playing extremely solid, and there was no question in my mind he held a big hand (probably 10s or better, or AK). The big blind folded, and it was up to me. I thought I had four options: * fold * move all in (he would certainly call) * call, with the intention of putting the rest in on the flop * call, and see what comes on the flop (possibly getting off the hand if an A and another potential killer card, such as a J or T, come) Obviously, I gave some of these options more serious consideration than others. I will post later with my decision and reasons for it. In the meantime, I would be interested in some feedback on what I should have done here (by the way, we were 2 players out of the money at this point.) Mark Gregorich | ||
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| Re: My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, Andrew Wells, 28. Jul 2003 04:16 | ||
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| You don't say how small the shortstacks are, or how soon they could be blinded out. However since you believe the small blind is playing very solid, his out-of-position raise would leave you with a tough decision on the flop. He's going to put you all-in there if you play since you say he has you covered and you would be already in for more than half your stack. I suspect that if he had AK he might have elected to come over the top with enough to put you all-in before the flop. Therefore I think you have to let go of QQ. If you decide to play it, then push all-in before the flop. Leaving yourself with 10K if an ace flops is just going to cripple your stack if you get nothing to play through the next set of blinds. You would be down to one despairation raise that could be small enough to easily get picked off. So, I'd give up the 5K and keep the 20K stack. Next time you make a move at the pot you may not be played back, and 5K is not too hard to recover from at this stage. 20K is still enough to be dangerous to someone, while 10K would be much less so. | ||
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| Re: My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, Big_Slick, 28. Jul 2003 05:23 | ||
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| Hi Mark, Andrew is right, there are a lot of factors to consider. However, knowing what I do, I would have folded my $5,000 and waited for a better opportunity. Queens can be a dangerous hand here. With only 2 spots to go before you are in the money, I would have played a bit more cautiously. Regardless of the outcome though, good job on making as far as you did. | ||
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| Re: My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, shorn, 28. Jul 2003 05:50 | ||
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| Being two out of the $$ would be the defining reason in my decision to fold the hand. You haven't made yourself pot committed with your raise and to go all-in (the only other reasonable option in my mind) has devastating effects should you lose being so close to the $$. At best, I would think you are ahead by the coin flip (AK vs. QQ), because if he is playing extremely solid (and has noticed your play), I don't think he would make this play with TT or JJ. So, I think the best situation for you is to fold and conserve to fight another day. Interested to see how it played out. | ||
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| Re: My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, Slate, 28. Jul 2003 07:12 | ||
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| Tough situation. How were the hands you have been playing? Were they very good. Did the SB know you have been playing good hands. That's the main determining point for me. If I have been playing very good cards at the table then I would just fold and trust he has me beat. You have invested 20% of your stack. Do you want to add another 40%? But then again is this playing too tight? For 40% more you could see the flop and maybe hit a monster. I would fold only because I got hit hard one time by QQ. We both had even stacks, this person went all in late position, from studying him I knew he was stealing blinds plus I had a strong feeling he did not have a top 10 hand. I had QQ so I went all-in against him. (gut feeling) He had AJ off-suit Flop came x,10,Q I hit a set of queens and he got up to leave. River 2s Then he said king me and a K came on the river and I was gone. I would fold it to fight again later. Not worth the risk, but then again sometimes the risk takers win big. | ||
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| Re: My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, noiseboy, 28. Jul 2003 09:07 | ||
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| Due to the amount of money already in, I think you can narrow down the options to all-in or fold. I think you would have to give a close look at the player and see if you can pick up any tells, because this decision is very close. | ||
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| Re: My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, noiseboy, 28. Jul 2003 09:14 | ||
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| Also, there are two theories regarding play just out of the money. 1) play tight until you make the money and 2) take advantage of those who are playing tight to make the money by stealing pots from them and accumulate chips for the final table. If you knew something about this player's play in previous tournaments, that would help you make the read. If it were a player who subscribed to theory a, then I would probably fold, if the player is one who loosens up when everyone else is tightening up, then you can possibly move all-in, or call and see how the flop develops. If you have no previous knowledge of the player's style, then it's a difficult decision. | ||
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| Re: My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, mkpoker, 28. Jul 2003 09:13 | ||
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| This is one of those gut-wrenching decisions you hate in a NL tourney. The more I think about it, the more mucking is probably the right answer, for all the reasons everyone has discussed. If it were me, though, I'd probably push all-in hoping opponent has JJ, TT, AJ or something similar. At worst, I'd hope for AK and a coin-flip race. I'd be mighty upset (obviously) if opponent turned over AA or KK. Also, I agree with others that the best options are raise all-in or fold. Not much middle ground here. | ||
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| Re: My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, stdioh, 28. Jul 2003 09:40 | ||
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| I would fold the queens without a second thought there. If you were playing against a dummy or a maniac you could push all in, but against a solid player with more chips than you at that point in the tournament, he is almost certain to be on KK or AA. Even if he is on AK, you only get a coin flip and just off the money with a safe stack is no time to be flipping coins. If you're very lucky he's holding JJ, but would he really come back at you like that with JJ - does he have a lot of disrespect for you? Nope, I say you have to get rid of it, curse your bad luck, and wait to get them back. You've just lost one full orbit of folds but you can still survive, wait for something better, and since there is so much ante money on the table, a single steal is really all you need to pull to outlast other players at least into the money. With KK, I'd say you could push in there and of course with AA, but I would pitch anything else. | ||
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| Re: My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, Mark Gregorich, 29. Jul 2003 12:34 | ||
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| Sorry for the delay in posting my QQ decision at the Orleans (a good omaha game at Bellagio kept me up WAY past my bedtime last night). After pondering my options, I ruled out folding. I had entered the pot for $5k, and the SB had made it $15k. Thus, there was 23.6k in the pot(with our bets and the BB and antes), and it cost me 10k to call. I just felt it was too likely he held AK here, plus equally likely he had JJ or TT rather than AA or KK. Essentially, 2.36:1 on a coin flip type situation. Of course, if I call I only have 10k left, so I'm basically pot committed, making my price 33.6 to 20 (still a good price with my hand, which figures to be a small favorite over his). Thus, if I was willing to go out on the bubble, I felt I should play the hand. For me, the issue now became whether I was in fact pot committed to the hand. If so, I may as well just move all in and see the hand out. However, I decided there were 1 or 2 specific flops that would cause me to fold my hand and save my case 10k for a better opportunity. So, this is the course of action I decided upon. I called the SB's bet, and watched in horror as the dealer unveiled a flop from hell: AJ5, all hearts (I didn't need to look back to know my QQ was all black). Predictably, the SB moved all in, and I went "in the tank" for awhile, deciding if there was any way I could fold this hand with over 30k in it, leaving me with just 10k and the blinds rapidly approaching. Basically, my thoughts on folding the hand prior to seeing the flop were it had to include an ace and one of his potential set cards lower than a queen (J or T). Also, I would call if I had a backdoor flush draw. Well, this board certainly fit the bill, but I was still highly reluctant to fold. Pretty much the only hand I thought I could beat here was TT (possibly 99), and he may have up to 11 outs with these hands as well. So, I folded. Two hands later, I picked up 88 and went broke. Not an alltogether enjoyable ride home. Did I play this right? I'm not sure. Moving in preflop certainly would have removed any douts I held about folding the best hand after the flop and, given the size of the pot, was probably an ok course of action. Then again, there just weren't many flops I wouldn't continue with (I was calling if the flop was Axx, since I could still beat TT and JJ; I told myself I could only consider folding if the flop was AJx or ATx, plus no flush potential for me). Folding preflop would probably have gotten me to the money, but I felt winning this pot in which I was receiving a very favorable price would greatly increase my chances to win the tournament. This no limit is a tough game. Thanks for reading - Mark Gregorich | ||
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| Re: My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, shorn, 29. Jul 2003 13:31 | ||
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| Mark- Thanks for sharing your thought process on this hand. I am not sure that I agree with the course of action, but your explanation was logical and far be it for me to tell you that you played it wrong when you had been at the table with this guy for so long. I guess the only part I have trouble with is I don't think it is as likely that he held JJ or TT. I think AK, KK or AA are much more probable for that move out of the SB against a player of your stature. I will agree wholheartedly with one statement though...NL is a tough, tough game. Steve | ||
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| Re: My key hand at the Orleans $1k no limit, noiseboy, 29. Jul 2003 16:50 | ||
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| I had this revelation last night that he probably had AK so you probably made a really good laydown. With AA's or KK's, he would likely just be happy to win the pot before the flop so he would likely overbet a larger amount or just move-in to get rid of you. The reason I say this is because you are so close to the money at this point, why would your opponent take a chance on the flop? However, you know the player better than me, but my thinking is that the pot was pretty big, and with AA's and KK's, and being just out of the money, it seems like he would be happy to lose you without risking a flop. If your opponent is a good player, I don't think he'd risk reraising with JJ's--99's unless he had you on a pure steal, with those hands he really wants to see a flop, and a reraise would risk you shutting him out. So I think that leaves AK, you're play allowed you to stay alive, when an A came on the flop, you folded and still had a chance at a comeback. The other option was to reraise all-in, but with the amount of money in the pot, he probably wasn't going anywhere if he really had AK, but at least you would get to see all 5 cards to try to spike the Q. You'd be a slight favorite and you would get the money in with the best of it, which is all you can ask. Anyway, you are a much more experienced NL player than me, I'm just some jerk who read a bunch of books, and can still count my tournament successes on the fingers of one hand. I think you're play of calling or all-in were definitely best, you can't fold your QQ's with that big a pot unless you are sure you are beat. Good luck, hope to see you at a final table someday. :) | ||
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