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Server Time: 11/22/2008 1:12:40 AM PACIFIC |
 What Would YOU Do (2)...???, mkpoker, 22. Jul 2003 13:10 | ||
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| This similar hypothetical situation (inspired by an actual hand) better illustrates the dilemma RB was tyring to draw out, I think: The situation is the same as described below. It's the first hand of the WSOP. You're in LP and receive QhJh. An EP player calls. MP makes a minimum raise, you call. Blinds fold, EP calls (3 to see flop). Flop comes Ah 7h 2h. EP makes a sizable bet. MP raises all-in. Do you call? | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, shorn, 22. Jul 2003 13:24 | ||
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| No. This is a great example of the gut wrenching decision that you have to make. Your hand cannot improve (other than seeing KT of your suit come off), and you have to ask yourself, what are the others in with? You may already be behind 1 player and with the action that you have seen, it is likely that the other has a re-draw to beat you. The BEST case (IMO) is that one player has only the K and the other has a set for re-draw. So, you could be ahead, but there are likely 12 outs on the turn an then 15 on the river where you will lose. Add that to the fact that you could be drawing dead already, and this makes it a fold for me. It is too early in the tournament to risk all of your chips on a hand that you don't know for sure is good right now (as in the AA hand). | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, Slate, 22. Jul 2003 13:28 | ||
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| I would fold. Its the first hand and MP seemed to be coming out some what strong. He could have Kh ANYh or KhAs looking for another heart. Most likely he has the Aany and Kh to come out some what strong. My biggest reason for folding is... 1 - Its the first hand and you do not know how this player plays. Is he aggressive and stealing the pot? Or does he have a Nut flush draw. 2 - If I call and lose I would feel terrible since it was the start of the tourny.. 3 - Since you have not much in the pot you have not lost much yet. EB is the one who has lost more. Later in the tourny I may have called based on MB's play. -Slate | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, Jav, 22. Jul 2003 13:32 | ||
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| That's a tough one. Sinice EP limped in originally, he could have a variety of hands. And since MP made a minimum raise, it's hard to place him as well. I would think that the EP person could possibly have KhTh, but I would have a hard time putting the All-in MP player on a flush. I would more likely put him on a set or AK. I would probably guess the All-In player has AK with maybe the K of hearts, and the EP player has a weaker hand (like an Ace with a weaker kicker). So even if I pretend my read is perfect, that's a hard all-in to call. If he gets his heart he'll beat you. If he has a set instead of AK, you still have to worry about the board pairing up. I think I might just lay this hand down and wait for a better opportunity. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, DRich, 22. Jul 2003 13:43 | ||
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| Fold. It is WAY too early to commit your whole stack without the nuts. You are only in two bets, i am too conservative to make this call. I believe this hand would lose in this scenario 1 out of six times. Assume the other player already has trips, if the board pairs your dead. It is also likely he has AxKh so if another heart comes out you lose. Too risky for me early in the tournament. DRich | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, 4 POKER, 22. Jul 2003 17:22 | ||
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| on 22. Jul 2003 13:43 DRich wrote: > Fold. It is WAY too early to commit your whole stack without the nuts. You are only > in two bets, i am too conservative to make this call. > > I believe this hand would lose in this scenario 1 out of six times. Assume the > other player already has trips, if the board pairs your dead. It is also likely he > has AxKh so if another heart comes out you lose. Too risky for me early in the > tournament. > > DRich If you turned your cards face up after the flop, who's hand would you rather have....a made hand, a hand that held a four flush, or a set? You are giving the assumption that the made hand is going to be outdrawn, and although it *can* happen....give me the made hand anyday. It is the favorite. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, shorn, 23. Jul 2003 04:39 | ||
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| That may be true but you can't win anything by risking your whole stack on this hand. And, you should surmise with relative certainty that (1) either you are already beaten or (2) someone has a draw to beat you. With no $$ at stake this early in the tournament, made hand or not, this is a clear fold. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, Barry T, 22. Jul 2003 14:47 | ||
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| Hi. Fold. Not even close. If you win, you have a big chip lead at a moment when a big chip lead means nothing. If you lose (and you certainly would not be shocked to lose) you will be out of the event with one year to wait to enter again. In other words, you can win relatively little, and lose everything. How can this even be a decision? BarryT | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 16:42 | ||
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| Winning very little vs. losing everything is irrelevant. What matters is the odds that you win. In this case would could be drawing dead to a better flush already or you could be up against a set and a draw to a better flush in which case you have less than a 50% chance of winning the hand. The question remains, what do your opponents hold? I guarantee you that you are, in that situation up against at the very least an opponent who holds a set in which case if you are heads up you have a 2/3 chance of winning, alone much worse than your 4/5 chance of winning heads up preflop with AA against anything else. If you are wrong and your opponent has a nut flush then you are drawing completely dead. In the best case your opponent has a worse flush than you, but why the giant overbet? There are two kinds of giant overbets in tournaments. Giant overbets made with the nuts in an attempt to take the money now (because the hand is vulnerable) or isolate and slaughter a fish that calls anyway and giant overbets made by fish who don't know any better. Who is the player betting at you? Even fish have good cards sometimes. You're best to fold and wait for something better. With AA preflop, you have the best possible hand and anybody, nomatter who, has a terrible hand. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, Keyser Soze, 22. Jul 2003 15:29 | ||
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| Fold. To much of a risk that someone has a Kh, I also agree as mentioned above, the chip lead would mean little at this time. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, Andrew Wells, 22. Jul 2003 15:57 | ||
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| You have absolutely no business calling even a small middle position raise cold before the flop if you're not going back it up when you flop something this strong. Suppose you flop JJQ with the same action, are you going to muck because MP might have QQ or someone with an overpair could hit the two outer to send you packing? How much of a favorite do you think you have to be on the flop in the initial hand to risk going out for a shot a more than doubling through. If you do win the hand, are you planning on sitting on your ass for the next four hours while your chip equity erodes? Can you handle the role of table bully well enough with a stack more than double anyone else to actually give yourself a real shot at making the money on day three? I wouldn't want to be put to an early all-in decision either, therefore QJs is just as much trash as 72o in this spot. However if they gave me a free play in my big blind with this hand/flop and someone shoved all-in after a lead bet, I'm either going to have a cold deck story to tell or I'm going to get to play a little faster than I expected for awhile. It's irrelevant that the event is the WSOP when you leave your ego with the coatcheck attendant at the door. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 16:43 | ||
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| I'm in total disagreement here with you Andrew. You call cold preflop to a small raise and then back it up with a flop like this? Sure. To a massive disgusting overbet? No damn hell way. This is not a no limit cash game, it is a tourney and *that* is an important distinction. I could see calling all in in a cash game, but *never* in a tourney with this holding. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, Andrew Wells, 22. Jul 2003 18:05 | ||
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| You missed my point, I would never call even the smallest raise cold before the flop with a hand like QJs on the opening hand of a tourney. I give the counter example out of the big blind to say that yes I take my shot with the second nut hand on the flop though. I can see a theif or a set making the all-in move, but I don't believe the nut flush is going to do anything but try to milk this hand for more. All-in from the current nuts on the opening hand doesn't seem practical. If I'm up against AsKh, I'll take the made flush thank-you. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, 4 POKER, 22. Jul 2003 17:04 | ||
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| Good point Andrew. If you're going to call a raise with Q-J and mention that the hand is soooted, then obviously you're taking into account of the possibilities in flopping a flush. First off, Q-J, whether it's suited or not should not be a hand that you cold call a raise with after there has already been a limper. It is total trash in N/L unless *you* are making a stand with the hand under a good circumstance. And I agree, if you're going to play the hand in the first place and than flop the second nut flush, and then FOLD? what were you looking to flop in the first place, A-K-10 of hearts? Q-Q-J? That's why the hand is a total dog in N/L, because you're going to have to hit it at least twice. IMO, folding would not even be an option here. With that flop and that holding, I'd rather push all-in here than if I were holding A-A. This is a made hand and is much the favorite to hold up against a set. Even if someone else holds the bare K of hearts, you'd still be the favorite. And I feel, if you can't committ to a flop like this, than forget it. Let me see the cold deck...I'll take my chances. If that means getting busted out on the first hand, then so be it. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 16:34 | ||
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| That does not illustrate his point at all. In this case, it is likely that one of the opponents is holding the nut flush. You can fold this no problem. If you held the nut flush it would be more comparable to the AA preflop situation. If you are holding the nut flush, it is very possible that one of your opponents is on a set. If he is on a set then there is a 1/3 chance he will tighten up and win the hand. You still call, holding the current nuts. Note that if you have a flop of Ah5h4h and you hold KhQh you have less chance of winning all in against a set than you do holding AA preflop against any other hand. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, mkpoker, 22. Jul 2003 17:19 | ||
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| It's not exactly the same situation, true enough, but I think it's a more interesting question. With AA pre-flop, you know with absolutely certainty that you have the best hand...at that point. In the above example, you *probably* have the best hand (with the next to nut flush), but can't be 100 percent sure. (I disagree with STDIOH that it's "likely" another player has the nut flush. I would probably put them on a set, possibly a lower flush, or the nut flush draw. It's all these possibilities that make decisions for this hand tougher, in my mind. Just look at posters responses! Everyone agreed that calling AA was the right play, but opinions are divided on this question. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, chasepoker, 22. Jul 2003 17:22 | ||
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| I would call in in about 2 seconds flat 2 main reasons 1) This player has got be holding KTh or worse K9h and below would even a total mug have raised an EP caller with KTh or worse ? 2) If you double up this early i believe it is in fact equivilant to quadroupling up if you know how to handle a large stack and push people around with it. I would call and then have a great story to tell being the first person out of the WSOP. Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, shorn, 23. Jul 2003 04:47 | ||
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| Why? What possibly do you win with $20,000 on the first day of a 5 day tournament? Absolutely nothing. Sure, your name might appear as the "chip leader", but who cares. You also might have the istinction of "calling off all of your chips" potentially to a better hand. IMO, you simply can't do this so early without the stone cold nuts. Eliminate one of the other two players and then you are the one being the aggressor and it is a different story. Yes, you are probably ahead. But, the chances are too great for you to be outdrawn and with literally nothing to win, it isn't worth it. | ||
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| Re: What Would YOU Do (2)...???, stdioh, 23. Jul 2003 08:38 | ||
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| You can play all the hands better when you have twice the stack of anybody else at your table. It provides you with safety and allows you to be safely agressive. | ||
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| A better question, stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 16:47 | ||
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| I've got a better question. The same scenario happens except on the flop a single player bets all in and then exposes a set of aces (we'll assume that this doesn't cause his hand to be mucked - lets say it is allowed) ... so you now have perfect information. You know that he has a 1/3 chance of winning the hand and you have a 2/3 chance of winning the hand. Now with AA preflop you have an obvious all in since you have a 4/5 chance of winning regardless of your opponent's cards. Here you are only 2/3 and there is very little in the pot and very much in the stacks. Do you go in here or fold? I would be inclined to take a flier and play. I think a 2/3 chance to double up at the start is worth the 1/3 chance of blowing out. Being the dominant stack at the table would be an advantage even early (certainly not as much of an advantage as when they blinds get big) and you are giving yourself a much better chance at making the money in the end. You also give yourself bad beat insurance in that now you can get all in with a bad player when you have the best of it, lose, and not be out of the tourney because your stack is that big. Though I'd be willing to bet that a lot of players would fold. I'm interested to hear your opinions. | ||
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| Re: A better question, mkpoker, 22. Jul 2003 17:13 | ||
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| I'd take that bet, but probably for different reasons than most. The fact is, I'm not likely to be the best player at the WSOP (or at any tourney, for that matter). To do well, I'm going to need a little luck. So If I know I'm better than a 50-50 chance, I'll play most of the time (depending on the situation, of course). Incidentally, that's *exactly* the same reason I'd call the AA play Risky outlined below--I KNOW I'm the favorite; no chance I'm being set up or outplayed, so I'd go. | ||
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| Re: A better question, chasepoker, 22. Jul 2003 17:27 | ||
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| For your problem stdioh i would again call same reasons ( big stack early = great chances to power through and go a long way ) Also i feel that a 66% chance of winning is a large enough edge to warrant going all in that early. You dont often get that many chances to hold an edge like that and i would take it. I think these type of questions demonstrate peoples attitudes to tourny's i personaly like to get a large stack early and then feel confident doing well from there, others prefer the more patient methodical way i wonder which way wins the most money ( for every time i double up and finish top 5 there must be 5 times where i bust out and could have finished top 20 ) Interseting questions has made me think about my NL tourny strategy !!!! Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: A better question, stdioh, 23. Jul 2003 08:40 | ||
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| Funny. I think of myself as being patient and methodical, but I'll also take a flier when I know I have the best of it. I wonder if that is a good thing or not. | ||
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| Re: A better question, 4 POKER, 22. Jul 2003 17:52 | ||
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| I've got a question. Do you think that a player could be making a *move* on the flop with a much lesser holding that we're all giving him credit for having? Being that this is a hypothetical situation.....I think it's a good idea and a valid point to not just assume that the others involved have the monster holdings that were stated. And because very often players will underestimate the possibilty of a made hand....I therefore feel even *better* about the option of calling all in here. I just don't think that with a flop like that, that you'd need to worry every single time that someone may hold a set and the other guy held a K high four flush. Many players make huge mistakes by not reading their *own* opponents correctly, therefore they will tend to make a bet that leaves the Q high flush a huge favorite. Just a thought ......looking at it from a different perspective because bluffing and semi-bluffing are still a part of the game....even in tournament play. | ||
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| Re: A better question, stdioh, 23. Jul 2003 08:41 | ||
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| It is possible that he is making a move, but it is a stupid move because he's overbetting far too much to gain far too little. It is possible that he's making a move, but you aren't "allowed" to punish him without the nuts. | ||
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| Re: A better question, shorn, 23. Jul 2003 04:51 | ||
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| With perfect information, I definitely call. As you pointed out, a 2/3 chance of doubling through seeing as I am not one of the top players in the tournament shouldn't be passed up. In the first example, without information, you can't assess your chances to be much better than 40% to win, so I think it is a fold. | ||
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| Re: Here's What TJ Cloutier Did, mkpoker, 22. Jul 2003 17:58 | ||
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| When I posted this question, I mentioned that it was based on an actual hand. It was, and TJ Cloutier was the player who flopped the 2nd nut flush. He CALLED the all-in bet. Sure enough, the EP player (who made a big bet on the flop) was holding 7-7--the flop had given him middle set. The MP player, who pushed all in, had KhTh--the nut flush. TJ, with a lower flush, was drawing dead, and was knocked out the 1st hand of a major tournament (not the WSOP, though, I added that part for a little extra drama). Looking back, TJ said it was an enormous mistake. He should never placed all his chips in jeopardy so early in the tournament, unless he really knew his opponent (which he didn't, in this case). | ||
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| Re: Here's What TJ Cloutier Did, 4 POKER, 22. Jul 2003 18:02 | ||
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| I think TJ's mistake was made pre-flop. | ||
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| Re: Here's What TJ Cloutier Did, Andrew Wells, 22. Jul 2003 18:23 | ||
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| Precisely. | ||
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| Re: Here's What TJ Cloutier Did, shorn, 23. Jul 2003 05:01 | ||
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| I disagree. I know that you and Andrew have much more experience than I do, but I don't think that QJs is a bad hand to limp or call a small raise with assuming that their are a few players in and you have some sort of position. However, once that flop comes and you have TWO people who have shown strength, don't you have to ask yourself what they would risk ALL of their chips on?? I thought that the best NL players "aggressively pursue small pots, but back off on the first sign of strength from opponents." Granted, you have a good, made hand, but little other information as you don't know these players yet. So, they could have anything here...the nuts, two sets, complete crap. My point is that this early in the tournament you are risking your chance of winning the event for 1 hand where, if you win, it won't mean anything down the line. As I said in another post, if you eliminate one of the players, then the play becomes more palatable. But, with the order of betting, the all-in player is clearly protecting a really good hand here by moving all-in because he has no information about you or the BB either. I just think discretion is the better part of valor so early when the positive result (you win) means so little and the negative result (c ya later) is a disaster. | ||
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| Re: Here's What TJ Cloutier Did, Andrew Wells, 23. Jul 2003 07:26 | ||
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| The problem with your assessment as I see it is that you don't value doubling up early as worth anything down the line. This would be true if you win and then don't play anything else until the chip situation at your table evens out. With a stack more than double anyone else's at the table early on, you get to change gears and attack hard with speculative hands until one of two things happen. You either lose a showdown to another player who makes a stand all-in (which puts you back to an average stack size), or you get far enough ahead in chips (four to six times the initial stack) to coast into the money playing just the power hands. With an early big stack relative to the other players at your table, you can now afford to semi-steal with a limper involved as well as the blinds. You can make your initial raises larger than 2-3X the blinds, which helps you bully. You can make more semibluff moves after the flop because you now are risking chips with a lower integral value against players with more at stake. All this means you are favored for awhile to pick up significant dead money at your table. You get to peck away at the weakies until you have amassed a very large chip lead or you get sent back down to an average stack. It is worth a great deal to have the early chip lead, but only if you intend to use it appropriately. If you don't plan to change your strategy with the large stack, then it could be argued that it would be best not to take any risk without the nuts to get in that spot. | ||
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| Re: Here's What TJ Cloutier Did, shorn, 23. Jul 2003 07:55 | ||
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| Andrew- Once again, great thoughts. I am not sure that you have completely convinced me, but you have changed my thoughts on the value of a larger stack size this early if used appropriately. Thanks for the lessons. Steve | ||
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| Re: Here's What TJ Cloutier Did, chasepoker, 23. Jul 2003 10:02 | ||
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| It is so important to get an earl stack size ( if you know how to use it properly ) that personaly i believe it is even worth talking a chance early on. As i mentioned previously though it all depends on a players style if you feel more comfortable just slowly accumulating chips by pushing the small edges all the way then go for it, i however feel that a tounry is not always long enough for those small edges to take effect and that taking an early risk is worth it. I am NOT advocating aggressive play just for the sake of it, merely highlighting the importance of a large stack early. I wonder if anyone can get the stats of how the top 20 in the WSOP in the past 10 years have started off their comps. This is another point i think Slansky differs from me on, in his tourny book chapter entitled " Why the first day leader of the WSOP never wins ". Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Here's What TJ Cloutier Did, Slate, 23. Jul 2003 10:25 | ||
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| I think I would have to agree with you Chasepoker. I have played many tournaments where I have never built my chip stack up. Short stacked the entire tourny. Many times I have made it to the final table out of 200 players with this short stack and I believe I would have won these tournaments if I would have built a bigger chip stack early to be able to take stabs at different pots. | ||
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| Re: Here's What TJ Cloutier Did, Jav, 23. Jul 2003 10:42 | ||
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| You definately might have won or done better if you could have gotten a bigger stack earlier, but you may not have. Some people (maybe you, maybe not) even play better with smaller stacks. When you're short stacked you usually have to play extra tight and extra aggressive, which tends to be hard to play against... | ||
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| Re: Here's What TJ Cloutier Did, 4 POKER, 22. Jul 2003 19:35 | ||
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| .......But he can play my chips any day of the week! | ||
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