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Server Time: 11/22/2008 1:38:44 AM PACIFIC |
 What do YOU do....???, Risky Business, 22. Jul 2003 08:05 | ||
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| Hypothetical: You've won your satellite, you've planned your trip, you've made it to Vegas, you've adjusted to the smell of downtown, you've had your fun, and now it's Day 1 of the WSOP. You're dealt A-A in the first round of blinds. (inferring little info about the other players) Do you call a pre-flop all-in bet that bets ahead of you? Risk your tournament in the first hour vs. doubling up immediately? | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, BigDukeSix, 22. Jul 2003 08:09 | ||
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| oh yeah all in without doubt, if you are in any doubt, you are in the wrong place..... like the adjust to smell of downtown btw | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, MozMan, 22. Jul 2003 08:15 | ||
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| AA is a major favorite. There is some gamble involved here, but I think you gotta take it on these cards. They don't come often enough. The only time I would hesitate is if there are one or more callers already ahead of you. You really want this to be heads-up, and the more people that call this all-in bet, the more likely you will get sucked out. -Moz "May your chips never fall from a cow." | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, MozMan, 22. Jul 2003 08:28 | ||
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| BTW, even though I hesitate with other callers, I think I still make the call... now we're talking about not jus tdoubling up, but possibly tripling, or quadrupling... -Moz "May your chips never fall from a cow." | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, chasepoker, 22. Jul 2003 08:29 | ||
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| To be honest i think i would call this with or without another caller, if you cant stick all your money in with AA then what can you stick it all in with ! Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 09:50 | ||
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| Yes, but even 4 handed, your AA is such a big favourite that you can still go in with it. Multiplying your stack by 4 this early on is far too much of a boon not to take the risk. Also, if there are all in callers they almost certainly have KK, AK, or QQ. If you are against AK, KK, QQ and you have AA then the AK is drawing completely dead except to a straight which requires the queens to hit. Thus there are a total of 3 outs against you and that's equivalent to taking KK against A2 only you get paid off 4 fold. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, TKarrde, 22. Jul 2003 11:33 | ||
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| The odds say that you should win 56% of the time. But if you take into account the types of cards that you should be going against it should be even better. Heads up, no problem. Two callers... maybe. Three callers, I'd think hard about it. I would have came to outplay my opponents. Not gamble. And even though you maybe a 60% shot to win. At that point it IS gambling. Maybe if the Vegas trip wasn't a "once-in-a-lifetime". But if it is I'm not going out that early. If I got nothing at stake I'm just as good as I was before. TKarrde "The next best thing to playing and winning, is playing and losing." | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, 4 POKER, 22. Jul 2003 12:01 | ||
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| That's a great point. Example.......If you were at a final table at the WSOP and 2 or 3 of your opponents pushed all-in in front of you, you should not committ to pushing all-in *even* with A-A. The difference in the payouts are huge when you're talking about placing 6th or 10th and although your hand is the favorite pre-flop, once a raising war takes place, *many* of the top professional tournament players would not even hesitate in throwing their hand away. There was a complete list in CP magazine a few years ago that listed all of the top players that would call the all-in bet with A-A, and all of those who wouldn't. The consensis on this was split at 50/50. So although it may seem to be the correct thing, it is something that must be weighed out because it is not as black and white as you may think it is. Anyone can push all-in with A-A, but if you have alot of experience in N/L and final table play, and are really skillful in the game, with *all*of its nuances......some of the best plays made are the ones that weren't even called from the start. It can be the #1 crippling hand when a player just assumes that he should play it simply because it's the favorite coming in. Everything at hand should be considered first. 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, Jav, 22. Jul 2003 13:54 | ||
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| I think that's a good point; but I also believe that what a poker pro says he would do in an interview and what he really does when he's staring down at those bullets could be a different thing for many of them... | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....(All-In King-King !!), Risky Business, 22. Jul 2003 14:27 | ||
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| Why is K-K such a scary hand here? I know the obvious A-A dilemma, and maybe that's enough to toss your Kings, but you all spoke of odds and what a huge favorite you are with A-A...........King-King has 1 single 2-card hand that beats you, or 3 outs of 48 cards to beat you if he has 1 ace......and you don't call with K-K? I repeat what you (rhetorical) said.....will you ever get better odds to double up your stack in the first hour? Don't you have to take advantage here? | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....(All-In King-King !!), stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 16:55 | ||
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| KK is dangerous because any ace has a 30% chance of beating you. With AA against any hand you win 4/5 times. With KK against AQ you win only 3.5/5 times. Now if you *know* that you are not up against AA then KK is great, but when you are then you win 1/5 times. Thus the scare factor of the AA combines with the lower payout against a single ace hand and really diminishes the value of KK. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, 4 POKER, 22. Jul 2003 14:39 | ||
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| on 22. Jul 2003 13:54 Jav wrote: > I think that's a good point; but I also believe that what a poker pro says he would do in an interview > and what he really does when he's staring down at those bullets could be a different thing for many of > them... Well like I said, I read it in Cardplayer magazine and it was split down the middle. The players that were asked were giving their answers based on their own past experiences and actual hand play during a WSOP event. And there are many of them who would not get involved if it meant that 2 or 3 of their opponents were put in a position to now get knocked out of the final table. And whether you want to believe what they're saying or not, the truth of the matter still stands.......going all-in with A-A is not a definite *yes* all the time. There's alot of grey areas in poker...it's not just yes I would, and no, I never would....and it is these type of crucial decisions that can lead you to becoming a bracelt winner....and for all the people that offered their opinions on the matter were all top paid tournament players. If I didn't think that CP magazine was filled with honesty by their writers and/or the people they polled, than I wouldn't be reading it. It would be like saying, Well how do you know if Sklansky really does what he advocates and does TJ Cloutier really play his hands the way he says he does in his tournament play of hands book? Now because I do believe that there are times when you should not committ your chips with A-A, I'd have to say that I believe in what they are saying as well because it makes absolutely perfect sense if you take everything at risk into consideration. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, Jav, 22. Jul 2003 14:45 | ||
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| Agreed. Now I'm interested in your opinion on What Would YOU Do (2)! | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, 4 POKER, 22. Jul 2003 15:02 | ||
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| on 22. Jul 2003 14:45 Jav wrote: > Agreed. Now I'm interested in your opinion on What Would YOU Do (2)! I will give you an honest answer. Even though I have aquired the knowledge of N/L hold-em, my *experience* in tournament play is limited, and because of that....I might push all-in myself if I didn't take the time to really weigh everything out. But just because I may push all-in, does not mean that that was really the best decision. And like most of the answers in playing a hand in poker....."it depends". I wouldn't always push all-in and I wouldn't always fold either. But I still agree 100%, if you really take the time to think about it.....your own play may be to fold. And that is where mistakes come into play now, because your experience and/or skills may be lacking in the whole nuance thing of N/L tournament play at a final table. And knowing when to fold (regardless of your holding), is very important in final table play. Like I said, it's not always a definte yes, that's all. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 16:57 | ||
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| Fine. You could concoct a weird scenario. Lets say you are at the final table and 4 players are all in with exactly equal stacks, all bigger than yours, so unless there is a chop, 3 are getting eliminated and you'll move drastically up the money. Lets also say that you are a hideously small stack so even if you quadruple up you have little chance of winning and will be blinded out soon. Then you could toss the aces. But essentially you've made an oddball situation there that emulates a satelite situation in which you would toss aces. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, Andrew Wells, 22. Jul 2003 18:31 | ||
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| Reference WSOP 1993 for the odd ball situation. The micro-stack moves from 3rd to 2nd place (I think it was something like a $200K money swing) by mucking the big pocket pair. If I remember right it was the largest WSOP pot ever (back then), with AK against a set of fives and $2M in the middle. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, 4 POKER, 22. Jul 2003 18:41 | ||
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| Thank You. Not everything is a cut and dry situation no matter how much you may think it is. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, 4 POKER, 22. Jul 2003 18:58 | ||
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| stdioh, It is not a "concocted" weird scenerio. Plays like this are made at tournaments among the players who have a great deal of experience at the final table .....and they calculate the entire situation as to what their best step/approach may be for *them* to make in order to place higher up on the pay scale, and they understand that being able to move up 2 or 3 spots could make the world of difference in their payout. So you really have to think hard as to what will benefit you the most. Final table play is not as "clear cut "as a certain hand (A-A).may dictate it to be. Now I'm not saying that you should always fold two Aces..... This is simply just a scenerio that can not be overlooked just because it may not "fit in" with the odds dictating that you should *always* push all-in here. And Andrew's post of a play that was made at a WSOP illustrates just that, and it is one that has merit to it as well, IMO. You had mentioned that if a player was at a final table and was extremely short-stacked, EVEN if he were able to quadrouple up by not getting involved when the much larger stacks were battling it out, he'd probably have very little chance at winning anyway because of the limits and the blinds.....well there have been many, many times that the player with the least amount of chips went on to placing first. The old expression, "A chip and a chair" means exactly just that. A buddy of mine was in an event at the WSOP this year and made it to the final table, but he was the shortstack. Well, while the less experienced tournament players were battling their own stacks with each other, my friend just sat there, EVEN while holding good cards. His attempt was to try and move up one or two spots at a time while the othere slowly got knocked out. Instead of him finishing in 7th place (which it definitely *looked like* was going to be his finish)....he finished 3rd and the difference in payouts were enormous. Unfortunately for him though, he was also at the table with Men, "The Master" who had a huge chip lead and didn't get involved while the othere were knocking themselves out, and even though my friend was low on chips, he still had a shot to win, but he just couldn't make any headway. But like I've mentioned, If the other players were more experienced with the whole strategy of final table play, and *if* my friend was not experienced at final table play.......he wouldn't have even gotten to 3rd. I watched the whole thing and it was really quite amazing how well he did by dodging bad situations, thus alowing him a really good shot at finishing in the top 3. And those are just some of the more grey areas and subtlties of poker and final table play, and you have to take everything into account with any decision regardless of the strength of your holding. While certain odds and %'s may dictate what your choices should be.....sometimes, (in tournament play) you have to look at the whole picture, and that was my point because it *always* depends. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 16:52 | ||
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| In a satelite there are many times to throw away AA preflop. In a money tournament there are none. If you are a 56% favourite against 3 opponents you have to take into account that you are multiplying your stack by 4. It is worth the risk. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 16:51 | ||
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| 56% against random hands. But all in callers at that point in a tourney tend to have good hands and AA does much better against three opponets with good hands (big pairs, big cards, using eachothers outs) than against random hands. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, Roy Cooke, 22. Jul 2003 08:25 | ||
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| You move all your chips in and roll the dice....Faint hearts don't win WSOP events. That decision is not even close! Roy Cooke on 22. Jul 2003 08:05 Risky Business wrote: > Hypothetical: > > You've won your satellite, you've planned your trip, you've made it to Vegas, > you've adjusted to the smell of downtown, you've had your fun, and now it's Day > 1 of the WSOP. > > You're dealt A-A in the first round of blinds. (inferring little info about > the other players) > > Do you call a pre-flop all-in bet that bets ahead of you? > > Risk your tournament in the first hour vs. doubling up immediately? | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, Tim C, 22. Jul 2003 16:31 | ||
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| Last NL To I was in I get all in with AA get called by KK and JJ . K comes on the flop and I'm on the rail. But I loved it preflop. Would do it again. Have also lost with AA against KQs, and have beaten AA with AKo so it goes both ways. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, noiseboy, 22. Jul 2003 08:35 | ||
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| I would likely call if it was likely going to be heads-up because unless he is completely insane, your opponent has AA's KK's QQ's (actually QQ's are pretty insane) or AK (also a bit insane). Pretty much he almost has to have AA's or KK's, so you are likely a 4 to 1 favorite. Risking the whole tournament on the first hand is a drag, but if you double up on the first hand you've taken a lot of pressure off when the blinds go up. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, noiseboy, 22. Jul 2003 08:37 | ||
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| BTW, if it were KK's I'd throw it away without a second thought. There's a good chance you are a 4-1 dog, or just playing for a split. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, Oxford3, 22. Jul 2003 09:30 | ||
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| OK. Everyone says go all-in. Lets look at the facts though. Your at the WSOP, where the majority of the players are not professionals and do not play the gap concept or even know it exists. Your oppenent is most likely a loose player and even at a 4-1 or 5-1 favorite your going to loose occasionally and be blown out of a major tournament. Why risk your stack, muck the cards and show everyone that youve done so. They will all think your crazy and you can use that to your advantage later. Now if this was day 3 of the WSOP you have no choice but to go all it. BY the way I was playing in a tournament recently where the money want bad $25,000 for a 200 buyin. I raised the only caller with AA (I was on the button he was under the gun) he came over the top and went all in. I called as fast as I could. He had JJ. When the flop came 84J, my heart sank. No help on 4th or the river and I was out. I was 2 seats out of the money at the time. Nothing is a no brainer! | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 09:51 | ||
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| The gap concept means precisely dick when you know for a fact that your opponent is a giant dog to you. You know for a fact that you have a 4/5 chance of winning or better no matter what his cards are. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, Mano, 22. Jul 2003 12:40 | ||
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| So you think showing everyone that there not a single hand that you are willing to risk all your chips on is a good idea? I think you would get run over and never make it to day 3 - any decent player would simply raise you all in whenever no other players are involved. I agree you need to play very conservatively the first day, but if you play that tight you might as well not show up till day 2. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, shorn, 22. Jul 2003 09:30 | ||
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| Call without hesitation. Yes, it sucks if you lose, but if you win this one hand, you effectively have gotten yourself to Day 2 and that means half the field will likely be gone (assuming of course, you play solidly for the rest of Day 1). | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, Keyser Soze, 22. Jul 2003 09:32 | ||
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| I would call without a doubt!! | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 09:47 | ||
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| Of course you do. There's never a reason not to get all in preflop with your aces if you can because any other possible hand is just such a big dog to you. The hand that has the best chance against you is medium suited connectors. You go all in and if you get unlucky at least you didn't waste 4 days of your time. Doubling up early on like that is just such a huge advantage as you can start playing a big stack game right from the beginning and having a big stack makes it easier to accumulate even more chips. In a poker tournament the rich truely do get richer and the poor truely do get poorer. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....??? (Summary), Risky Business, 22. Jul 2003 10:44 | ||
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| To get so many responses that quickly was surprising. If it were that easy, I wouldn't have expected you all to respond. I was attempting to present a gut wrenching decision...........all or nothing type scenario...........first out or, as you say, near automatic entry into Day 2 (based on what ESPN has showed us) Glad to see poker discipline has prevailed in this instance. I'll try to think of a better topic next time. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, Mark, 22. Jul 2003 11:17 | ||
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| You must move all-in. If i put up any amount of money in for a possible $3 million prize, i would be playing to win. If you're even thinking about folding, you're playing to survive, and will inevitably end up short stacked and get busted (probably on the bubble) AA is a HUGE favorite and if you won't play it, what would you play? For whoever said that you should fold AA on the 1st day but play it in the same situation on Day 3, why? Your not in the money either way. By waiting to Day 3 to get busted, you missed out on 2 days of good ring games. Mark | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, Frank Grimes, 22. Jul 2003 11:24 | ||
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| This is really the best point made and to illustrate it, consider the same scenario if it were the first hand of the final table instead, with all players similarly stacked. The salient point is and should be the expectation of winning the hand. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, stdioh, 22. Jul 2003 16:58 | ||
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| Indeed. If it were correct to fold AA preflop to an all in on the first hand then it would be correct to fold anything there. That means it would be correct to push all in with any hand there. You see where this is going. | ||
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| Re: What do YOU do....???, SmellsLikeVictory, 22. Jul 2003 12:55 | ||
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| Easy, easy call, made gleefully. AA just crushes everything else too much and this would be a dream situation to be in. The WORST hand for you to be up against in this situation is 65s. 65s is the hand with the best shot at being the AA killer with a 23.1% chance of cracking them HU. Of course, who's going all-in on that hand, no one. You're likely against AK or KK or QQ, which you crush even more. Can't fold against those odds, I don't care what you think of chip preservation. Now make that KK instead of AA and it's a totally different story. | ||
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