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Server Time: 11/21/2008 10:24:19 PM PACIFIC |
 NL amateur hand., Banning, 20. Jul 2003 22:03 | ||
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| so, I'm playing nl with my 2 buddies. We all have 30 chips to start, and blinds are 1,2. Button is Cagey player to my right makes it 5 to go. I call with 77 thinking if i hit a 7 I'm going to eat him alive otherwise I'm folding. The flop is 566. I sensed fear...I'm UTG, and push all in. Button shudders and starts going crazy and moans about the pair of 6's and then folds flashing QQ. At which point I shake my head at myself and then shake my head at my opponent (in my mind) and rake. Maybe my sensing of fear was correct, as he did throw the hand away, or maybe it was just in my mind and I'm lucky he folded. I was just curious about how you guys would have played the hand? I'm pretty darned sure his fold was ill advised, but my all in play that is the dubious one for sure. 3-handed poker, the odds of two people having pocket pairs is pretty low so I figured myself for the leader, but I wanted to take it right then because I was vulnerable. Should I have considered the over pair? I think that if I were to be afraid of overpairs in short handed nl play I would end up playing too passively. Of course this play was one of those where anybody who did call me had me beat. Thanks for any responses. | ||
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| Re: NL amateur hand., cold_cash, 20. Jul 2003 23:32 | ||
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| This was no doubt a gutsy move, but only you know if it was the "right" one. (Obviously in this situation it was, because you got him to fold.) I don't play much no limit, so I don't know a lot about it, but I think in a no limit game you have to rely even more heavily on intuition than in limit games. If you make the wrong read in a limit game, you lose a few bets... in a no limit game you lose a whole boat-load of money. (Which is why I don't play a lot of no limit.) You thought you sensed weakness (which was wrong in this case... lol) and you made a move... I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with that. But you also ask the question "should I consider overpairs?", but I'm positive you and I both know the answer to that question. (Of course you should consider overpairs.) But since nobody was there, and nobody in here knows what type of player your opponent was, chip count, etc. I think the only answer you're going to get is "That was a gutsy move to make, and you got lucky getting him to lay it down." Just my opinion. Also, if it was me I would have flipped those 7's over right after he folded and let him look at them. Maybe that's bush league, I don't really know, but it might start to get him second guessing himself and might even get him steaming a little bit. | ||
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| Re: NL amateur hand., sburne, 21. Jul 2003 06:37 | ||
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| That is always the correct move, usually the first all-in will take the pot even with nothing....... The only way anyone can call your all-in would be with another 6, even AA should lay down.......Unless they read you as bluff or weak. Which can be painful if this time you had the 6. ;o) | ||
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| Re: NL amateur hand., stdioh, 21. Jul 2003 09:54 | ||
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| On a hand like that, when I am out of position, I like to check and see what the preflop raiser will do. Oftentimes if the preflop raiser makes a small bet, you can checkraise him there and fold him off his overcards or even fold him off an overpair, but I would make it a relatively small checkraise if I could, so that if he comes back over the top I can get away from the hand. Sounds like you had a pretty small stack there so you could only push in or fold if he did that, depending on what you saw from him. If he just checks, then I wouldn't worry too much either. Either he is worried that you are slowplaying or he is slowplaying himself, but his chances of having a 6 are small. If a card falls to give you a gutshot or better, then I can see semi-bluffing here. You may have the best hand already and you've got a draw to what will likely be the best hand. | ||
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| Re: NL amateur hand., pt_Gatsby, 21. Jul 2003 10:16 | ||
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| ------quote The flop is 566. I sensed fear...I'm UTG, and push all in. Button shudders and starts going crazy and moans about the pair of 6's and then folds flashing QQ. At which point I shake my head at myself and then shake my head at my opponent (in my mind) and rake. Maybe my sensing of fear was correct, as he did throw the hand away, or maybe it was just in my mind and I'm lucky he folded. I was just curious about how you guys would have played the hand? ------end quote Assuming that there are no rebuys, and how well you know the players, and how friendly the tournament was (I have to guess not TOO friendly if you threw all in)... I would of matched it without blinking. Here is the logic: ---- odds(risk) With QQ / 665 (rainbow) Ir he has; xx, you have a 80% chance of winning. If he has; 5x, you have a 81% chance of winning. If he has; 5A, you have a 80% chance of winning. If he has; 55, you have a 16% chance of winning. If he has; 6x, you have a 8% chance of winning. If he has; 78s, you have a 67.7% chance of winning. Assumption: With 665 on the table; There are 2/47 cards (6or6) that pose a horrible winning ratio. There are 2/48*1/47 cards (5and5) that pose a bad winning ratio. Your worst probability odds come from him having a 7+8 with matching suites, (ie: 4 card flush). This would put him at even money. ---- benefit(reward) Assuming you are playing in a tournament(?) style game, which will result in fixed ending positions... You are there to win, presumably. If you win this hand, you will have 60 chips to your opponents 30 chips. To put it succinctly, this gives you a huge advantage. Not winning would require some serious bad luck or errors. There is an element of 'what if', and why not fold this one and continue playing? The problem is that in NL, shorthand and tournaments, there is a huge element of bullying. Risking everything isn't exactly wise... but at the same time, you are looking to punish those that will bully you when you have amazing hands (QQ definately being one of them). In fact, the only way I would lay down QQ in a 3 person game would be if a highly flush/straight board developped to the point where him having it would be high probable (ie: 234/56), where having just an Ace would lose it. On the other hand, I can understanding forfeiting 16% of your stake to live another day. That involves more reading your opponent, IMO. If I was playing online, 1v1 (table size), and this situation had developped before I could read his patterns... I wouldn't of even hesitated to throw my money in. Incidently, a 77 in heads up is roughly equivalent to a AKs in win ratios (66% win ratio). That assumes only two hands being delt, however. With three people, its only about 46% (which is above the 26% random hands have in this situation). A QQ has a 65% chance of winning in a 3 person game. As for how you played it, at least you committed. However, being UTG, you took an enourmous risk that he just happened to have any pair, a six (or a five, but you would of won that one), an open straight or (?) a flush draw. He might even of called with unmatched face cards (doubtful, and gives you a 75% win rate)... but your hand was strong and you preyed on his fear of being knocked out. I would of bet large, but not all in. With that kind of a board I wouldn't be willing to gamble my stake... but I know that with that kind of a board, if he has garbage, he will drop (hopefully, heh). ---- I would also appreciate any comments on my logic :) While I have been logging many many hours at shorthanded tournaments, I still don't have comparable expierence to most here. All of this was theory and only that. Only real results matter! | ||
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