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Server Time: 11/21/2008 10:29:38 PM PACIFIC |
 odds question?, Don Hayes, 13. Jul 2003 11:22 | ||
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| I am a newbie trying to get my mind around P.E.V. I downloaded the basic data on hold em from the odds page and it said if I have a pair and stay through seven cards that the odds are 4.21 to 1 against making trips. I figured if after the flop there are 47 unseen cards and only 3 outs the odds would be 47 to 3 or about 15.6 to 1 against and on the river 46 to 3 or 15.3 to 1 against. my question, is the 4.21 an error or if it is correct where is my underlying assumption astray when figuring out the odds. I assume in a 2-4 game if the odds are 15.3 against trips assuming that would be the nuts the pot would have to be more than 4x16 or apx 64 dollars to make it worthwile to call. I appreciate the help in advance thanks Don | ||
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| Re: odds question?, PokerDude, 13. Jul 2003 22:23 | ||
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| If you have a pair, you only have two outs Officially Licensed Dude | ||
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| Re: odds question?, stdioh, 14. Jul 2003 13:52 | ||
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| You have to figure your odds of making your hand on the turn and add to that your odds of not making your hand on the turn, but making it on the river. Your chance of hitting trips on the turn when you are holding a pair, are 2/47 = 1/23.5 and your chance of missing the turn and then hitting the river is 45/47*2/46 = 1/24. Thus your chances of making trips are 1/11.87 It sounds to me, however, like the figure you were looking at included hitting your kicker and improving to 2 pair. In that case, you would have 5 outs to 2 pair or better which would give you odds of hitting on the turn at 1/9.4 and odds of missing the turn and hitting the river of 1/10.30 which combine to 1/4.91 And a 1 in 4.91 chance is 3.91:1 against. Usually, you don't want to draw to 2 pair, however because there are chances that you will make your hand and it won't be good. There are also chances that the board pairs and counterfeits your hand. There are chances that you are drawing dead as well and if you hit your trips you are no good or if you hit your 2 pair you are no good. | ||
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