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Server Time: 2/13/2012 9:45:58 PM PACIFIC |
 A good example of applying odds/implied odds, shorn, 10. Jul 2003 05:28 | ||
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| I was playing in a normal 5-10 game on Party last night when I participated in a hand that I thought was a good example of how to apply odds (and more importantly "implied" odds) to make a calling decision at the table. Here goes: I am OTB with QTo. 3 limpers in front of me, I limp, the SB raises, the BB calls and we all call. So, 6 players, $60 in the pot. The flop comes 6KJ rainbow giving me the outside str8 draw to the nuts (any A or 9). The SB bets, the BB calls, the first limper folds, the second limper raises, the third limper folds, and it is $10 to me. OK, there is now $80 in the pot, so it is laying me 8 to 1 on a 5 to 1 (roughly) shot, so I think I have an easy call. I throw my two cyber chips in and lo and behold the SB 3 bets behind me (damn!). The BB folds and the remaining limper caps it! Hmm...time for the thinking cap. So it is $10 more to me with $110 in the pot. I know I am most likely in 3rd place here, but what do they have? I put each player on one of four hands: AK, KJ, 66, JJ, or KK. I suppose someone else could have QT, but that is less likely as these guys wouldn't ram and jam with draws. So, I make my decision to call with two thoughts: (1) I am getting 11.5 to 1 implied odds on my call (the SB owes $5 more) and am drawing to the nuts and (2) if the board pairs on the next card I am gone; if not, I will re-evaluate again before seeing the river. The turn is an offsuit 2. OK, not really what I was looking for, but not terrible either. I would rather hit the A on the river for my str8 (assuming that I get there) than on the turn because if someone does have AK, that will (1) be extra equity in the pot for me on the end AND (more importantly) (2) they won't have a redraw to a boat on the river. There is $125 in the pot when the SB bets out again and the limper raises. So it is $20 to me and the pot is $155. I am getting 7.75 to 1($155 to $20), so I have another easy call right? WRONG. What are the chances that the SB is going to flat call the raise with me given all the action that I have seen? Pretty close to 0% IMO. And, it is likely that if he 3-bets, the limper will cap it again given that I am almost certain he has a set. So, my implied odds are really $205 to $40 ($155 + $30 more from SB and $20 more from limper), or BARELY 5.13 to 1. I am now almost right on the number instead of an easy call. Still, with a 5 to 1 shot, I am still making $$ on the call, so I call the $20 and as I suspected, the SB 3-bets and the limper caps. $20 more goes in for me (sigh). The river is the beautiful offsuit 9 giving me the nut str8. YES! The SB checks, the limper bets and I raise. SB calls all-in ($12) and the limper (obviously reluctantly) calls. SB shows AK, limper shows 66 and I am cyper shipped a monster pot ($297) with my str8. The point of all this is that when there are people behind you who have shown strength previously in the hand, you MUST calculate your odds based on the likelihood of another raise (or 2) after you have acted. If you don't do this and only look at what the pot is currently laying you, you very well could be donating $$ on what is actually a -EV play when you think you have the propoer odds to call. Applying implied odds concepts might not always be easy, but doing so will increase your hourly rate in the long run both by prompting you to fold when you think you should call and potentially call when you think your actual odds are better than the current price the pot is paying. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, Big_Slick, 10. Jul 2003 07:15 | ||
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| I am cyper shipped a monster pot ($297) with my str8. I wanna be cyber shipped a monster pot!!!!!! | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, shorn, 10. Jul 2003 07:31 | ||
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| Be patient Slick. You will be. Up to that point, I was having a crappy night. I had average cards, but never flopped anything and was down about $90 in 3 hours of play. So, another lesson is that if you are playing well and correctly, 1 hand can turn it all around. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, 4 POKER, 10. Jul 2003 07:22 | ||
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| Shorn, I think you're *still* wearing that "thinking cap" of yours.......great post! | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, shorn, 10. Jul 2003 07:32 | ||
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| Thanks. I thought it might help someone because I know that I had trouble with implied odds in the book examples from S&M. A real live example has always been better for me. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, 4 POKER, 10. Jul 2003 07:38 | ||
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| Shorn, In all honesty, I feel that you explained it better than S&M, too. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, shorn, 10. Jul 2003 07:47 | ||
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| Wow...thanks. I wasn't trying to sound arrogant and insinuate that! I just meant that for me it was one of the tough theories to think through when I was learning and I don't recall a whole lot of great examples in the book. Anyway, thanks for the plug! | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, 4 POKER, 10. Jul 2003 08:01 | ||
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| I'm serious. I wasn't trying to give you a "plug". Your post was great. I myself had a much easier time *understanding* what you said just by the way you made it "reader friendly". (S&M can be confusing sometimes and you broke it down better IMO by adding a real life story with it). P.s., you don't have to respond back....I wouldn't want to embarrass you any further by carrying on about your GREAT POST!! ....just wanted to give credit for where it was due, that's all. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, stdioh, 10. Jul 2003 13:17 | ||
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| I respect your play in general, shorn, but don't let implied odds be an excuse for getting yourself juiced by players with monsters protecting eachothers hands. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, shorn, 11. Jul 2003 06:35 | ||
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| I don't think I used it as an excuse and I actually think I evaluated the situation pretty well as far as my reads etc. I invested $90 total on this hand and won a $300 pot. However, you could look at it that the last $20 was a discretionary investment on my part because I had the nuts. So, I actually invested $70 to win $248 which granted is not 5 to 1 on money terms, but each time it was to me the calculations worked out that way as a +EV play even when I was considering calling the $40. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, stdioh, 11. Jul 2003 10:18 | ||
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| That is my point shorn. You had a 1 in 5 shot, and it seemed at each moment like you had good pot odds, but that is because you didn't take into account the information that was there in front of you. When you're calling 2 bets now, but you know that it will become 4 bets you have to think of it in terms of 4 bets now. If you repeated this hand in simulation many times you wouldn't make enough money off of it. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, shorn, 11. Jul 2003 11:09 | ||
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| If you do the math for 4 bets at each point, you still get better than 8 to 1 so that is where we disagree. Now if you are saying I should figure odds now based on ANOTHER call on the turn of 4 bets, OK. But as I pointed out, I made the flop call NOT expecting a cap AND that I would re-evaluate on the turn. I think we can agree to disagree here because I would play it the same again. I do thank you for the additional insight though...always appreciated. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, stdioh, 11. Jul 2003 11:33 | ||
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| Certainly this is a valid point of contention and I can see arguments for calling along here, but it would depend on what I knew of the table and the other players. In general my preference here is for folding, but I'm not saying that a call is always wrong. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, MozMan, 10. Jul 2003 12:01 | ||
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| Hey shorn- Thanx for posting that one! I have always struggled with the concept of implied odds; my limited thinking kept me thinking of it only in terms of "how much can I GET the other players to contribute," not "how much will they pump the pot to reduce my odds." You just made a big lightbulb go on in my head. -Moz "The reports of my assimilation are greatly exaggerated." | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, stdioh, 10. Jul 2003 13:15 | ||
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| QT is such a dangerous hand though - you probably should have folded it in the first place. I think that when there were 2 bets to you on the flop, you should have realized that it was very likely to come back to you as 4 bets. For that reason, I would have folded there and not worried about it. Once you called 2 it was necessary to call 4. Now on the turn you know that it is going to get pumped again and your odds are terrible. Yes there is *that* much money there, but now you're getting dragged along for bets of twice the size and again you know that you aren't going to get away without it being capped. Again, I think ti would be ok to throw them away. Yes, you got there, but if you hadn't got there, how much would you have spent on the hand? How much did you make as a profit? What was your chance of winning the hand (and you still have to worry about making your straight and getting redrawn when the set pairs the board)? I think that if you simulated that hand on the flop and ran many iterations of it you would find that your play slowly lost money there. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, shorn, 11. Jul 2003 06:32 | ||
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| You are right...QT is a dangerous hand that I only play on the button. But, when it came to me at two bets I had no way of knowing it would be four bets to continue, regardless of whether or not SB was the pre-flop raiser. How many times have you seen a bet out of the blind that is then raised and the blind calls the raise instead of re-raising? More times that not in my experience. In fact, if the SB had a monster, he would generally flat call the flop raise and then check raise the turn, right? That was the more likely scenario in my thought process. So, I was genuinely getting 8 to 1 on my flop call which in my opinion is a big money maker on a 5 to 1 shot. I realized that if the board paired on the turn, then there was no doubt I would fold, even to one bet. But if the A or 9 came, I had the nuts. By the time it was $20 to me on the turn, the pot was becoming enormous and since there was only 1 more card to come and I was still drawing to the nuts (the board didn't pair on 4th street), I calculated my odds to be just correct to call. And I got lucky and hit on the river, no doubt. I respect your thought prcoess stdioh as I view you as someone who has a vast poker knowledge and lots of experience at the tables (a quick math mind too). But, in this case, i will play this hand the same way again given the circumstances. IMO, you can't throw away draws all the time just because you fear two big monsters against you. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, stdioh, 11. Jul 2003 10:20 | ||
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| My point is this. When it comes to you at 2 bets you have to assume that it will become 3 or 4 bets when you are drawing. You can't assume that it will only be the best. I'm not talking about playing like a rock - far from it. My point is that tight poker involves fearing the worst. When you look down at your KJo UTG you fold it because you worry that somebody to act after you has a dominated hand, not because you are hoping that you'll flop well and be good. Fear doesn't have a place in poker, but awareness of danger does. Your hand was dangerous in that there was a very real possibility that it would cost you too much to draw and as a result you are better off not getting involved and waiting for a better opportunity to make your money. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, shorn, 11. Jul 2003 11:21 | ||
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| I hear you. But let's do the math for the flop (where I think it is where we disagree). As I recall it was $80 to $10 when it came to me. If I were to assume that it ould be capped, then I am facing $20 on $105 ($75 + $15 more from SB, + $10 more from the limper) which is STILL 5 to 1 (on the number) for a draw to the nuts. Now, I hear you when you will reply that "well even if you hit on the turn someone else can still outdraw you" and that is true. But if I thought like that all the time, I should never draw. Bottom line, I think I made the marginally positive EV play in each case and I didn't link the decision on the flop and turn together...I evaluated them separately. As I said in my other post, I respect and thank you for your insight, but I would have played this the same way again. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, stdioh, 11. Jul 2003 11:35 | ||
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| Aha! Here's my point though. Even if you were marginally +EV this is a high deviation hand. If playing the hand made you $0.20 it might not be worth playing simply because the risk involved is not commensurate with the profit. But that is another story - I can't really argue this one because I am such a swingy player myself. | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, shorn, 11. Jul 2003 11:42 | ||
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| True. It is highly volatile as are most drawing hands. Unfortunately, you can't always draw to yout nut hand with 8 passive callers!! | ||
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| Re: A good example of applying odds/implied odds, Dynasty, 10. Jul 2003 14:45 | ||
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| You're using the wrong terminology here. The appropriate term would be "effective odds". TOP defines effective odds as "the ratio of the total amount of money you expect to win if you make your hand to the total amount of bets you will have to call to continue from the present round of betting to the end of the hand." Implied odds only deals with the amount you have to call at the moment. As far as the play of the hand goes, I think you are making this much more complicated than is necessary. At no point should you consider folding this hand post-flop. It is a +EV approach to never fold a nut 8-out straight draw or nut flush draw in a large pot. Even in small pots, it should be an extreme rarity. | ||
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