|
||
|
||
|
Server Time: 11/21/2008 6:09:02 PM PACIFIC |
 figuring how much your favored, DJpoker, 8. Jul 2003 20:32 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I am having a devil of a time figuring out how much of a favorite or how much of a dog I am in certain hands. Obvioulsy, I don't know what the other players have, but lets say I have AKo and the flop comes 8 5 3 rainbow. Say the player bets out and I put him on one of the 3 pairs, how big a dog am I. I know that continuing the hand largely depends on pot odds, but tell me an easy way to figure out my status. Thanks. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: figuring how much your favored, cold_cash, 8. Jul 2003 21:48 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Do you want to figure out the chances of making your hand, or what the chances are that the hand you're trying to make will win the pot? For instance, do you want to know the odds making your flush if you flop a flush draw, or do you want to know the odds of packet jacks holding up against AK if the hand goes to the river? One thing to remember when you're figuring odds -- even if you make your hand, how sure are you about it being a winner? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: figuring how much your favored, cold_cash, 8. Jul 2003 22:15 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| One more thing I just wanted to say.. I'm not an expert by any means, but making a profit with just 2 overcards after the flop is not an easy thing to do, especially if you're playing low limit. If you bet/raised before the flop, then continued to bet/raise after the flop, you might get someone to fold the second or bottom (or maybe even top) pair if you're playing at a higher limit with presumably more solid players. If you play limits that are lower than a gopher's basement, (like I do), its unlikely you'll get anybody to fold ANYTHING, regardless of how you bet. Unless the flop has completely missed them by a mile they'll continue to hold on; and when all you've got is 2 overcards this can turn into a very ugly situation. This is just my opinion, but I usually drop overcards in a New York minute unless I have other draws going along with them. If I don't, I usually wind up in trouble. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: figuring how much your favored, Schuster, 8. Jul 2003 23:00 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| It depends heavily on what their kicker is. If they have a gutshot with their pair, or an ace or king kicker, you're a bigger dog. Check out http://prock.freeshell.org/ for a nifty free program that will chug numbers for you. You can enter hole cards, board cards, and dead cards, and it spits out exactly how much equity each hand has. It's a nifty tool! Lee | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: figuring how much your favored, tommyhawk, 9. Jul 2003 04:46 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| thx Schuster, This is a great tool. Thnaks for sharing this i was looking for something like this this one is real easy to use. For me it is diificult to get my hands on turbo holdem and this is a good alt. tyvm, tommyhawk. Keep on learning. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: figuring how much your favored, Schuster, 9. Jul 2003 11:56 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Hey Tommy No problem. It's helped me out a lot too! Lee | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: figuring how much your favored, stdioh, 9. Jul 2003 10:36 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Assuming that they have one pair and that they don't have an A or K for a kicker, then you will win if you hit one of your cards and they don't hit their kicker or re-hit their pair. What that means is that you have 6 outs and if you hit one then they have a redraw to 5 outs. So your chance of turning an ace or a king is 6/48 = 1/8. If you turn your card then your chance of getting redrawn on is 5/47 = 1/9.4 so your chance of hitting the turn and holding up is 1/8*8.4/9.4 which is 1/8.95 Now we need to look at the chance of hitting a turn that doesn't put you drawing dead and a river that hits you. There are 11 cards which hit one of you and 4 cards in your hands leaving 37 outs to a null-turn or 37/48 and then your chance of hitting the river is 6/47 so your chance of hitting brick, hit is 37*6/(48*47) or 1/10.16. Since we now have 2 mutually exclusive events we can add them to get 1/10.16+1/8.95 = 1/4.76 ... so your odds of hitting your hand without your opponent improving are a little better than 4:1 against. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: figuring how much your favored, captainahab, 9. Jul 2003 11:15 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| First, you have to figure out the odds induvidually. So, figure him on A-8, then work your way down. To do this you must learn the number of configurations left for the last two cards. There are 45 cards left in the deck (52 minus your hole cards minus his hole cards minus the flop). There are two spots left. So, the number of combinations left is 45 choose 2 = 990. Which last two cards let you win? Which last two cards let him win? Which two cards split the pot? To know this we have to get more specific. What are the suites of the induvidual cards? Assuming everything is off-suite then flushes are not possible. Which cards allow you to win: 4-2 (makes straight) K-K (makes three-of-a-kind) A-K (makes higher two-pair) K-5 and K-3 (makes higher two-pair) K-Q through K-9 and K-7 and K-6 and K-4 and K-2 (makes higher pair) -The number of possible 4-2 is 4 (fours) * 4 (deuces) = 16. -The number of possible K-K is 3 (kings) choose 2 (spots) = 3. There are three Kings left placed in two spots. -The number of possible A-K is 2 (aces) * 3 (kings) = 6. -The number of possible K-5 is 3 (kings) * 3 (fives) = 9. Multiply by two to get the K-3 is 18. -The number of possible K-Q is 3 (kings) * 4 (queens) = 12. Multiply this by eight to cover all the other similar ones. 12 * 8 = 96. 16 + 3 + 6 + 18 + 96 = 139. Which cards allow you to tie: None this time. Which cards allow you to lose: Everything else. So, A-K off-suite up against A-8 off-suite with a flop of 8-5-3 of different suites makes you a 139 / 990 = 14% dog. Or, the odds against you winning are worse than 6:1. I hope that helps and I haven't made any mistakes. It's interesting to note that if he has an ace or king kicker you are in BIG trouble. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: figuring how much your favored, DJpoker, 9. Jul 2003 19:48 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Thanks for the info guys. I was trying to figure out a quick way to figure out my odds to win the hand. I know the odds of making my hand better, but your insight is much appreciated. I was just curious because they always show who is the favorite on TV and I had trouble figuring it out, but thanks math folk. DJpoker | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| POKER FORUM HOME | POKER FORUM | LINK TO US | ARCHIVE | ONLINE POKER | Copyright 2002, United Poker Forum |
|
Getting Started |
UPF Tournaments |
Poker News, Views, Rules |
Poker Strategy & Psychology |
Money and Bankroll Poker Bonuses & Promotions | World Series of Poker (WSOP) | Play Online Poker | Poker Odds & Statistics | Tournament Poker | Poker Books, Videos & Learning Tools Looking for a Poker Game | Poker Bad Beats | Not Quite Poker | Quizzes and Polls | Forum Suggestions & Bugs |
|
|
|
|
Interesting Links: Online Poker | Free Poker Games | United Poker Network |
|