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Server Time: 10/11/2008 12:47:20 PM PACIFIC |
 Be careful recording Win Rates, Mark, 4. Jul 2003 14:05 | ||
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| Hello, IF YOU DON'T KEEP RECORDS DON'T BOTHER READING THIS POST. This post may help some of you who keep long term records of win rates ($/hr, BB/hr). I developed my own tracking database using Access and have been recording my results for a few months now. When i finally got around to tabulating the date and creating reports I was very surprised at what i saw. After looking farther into the data and my reporting process i found "bug" in my math and thought i would share it. Basically, for one game i don't play very often, i was recording a total profit for the game, but at the same time, was showing a losing win rate per hour. For example Total +/- = +$100 $/hour = (-$25) This happened because i was averaging the indivual session win rates together. This way of calculating gave the wrong result. For example lose $10 in 10 min, win rate is -$60/hour win 12 in 60 min, win rate is +12/hour Now, if these were the only 2 sessions i play, i still show a profit of $2. However, if i average the Win Rates, i show a -$24/hour for that game. While this rate is correct, the value only shows worth after many, many hours have been played. I hope this may helps some players mark | ||
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| Re: Be careful recording Win Rates, Robbins, 4. Jul 2003 15:33 | ||
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| Hey Mark, Is it difficult to make one of these databases? I'd love to try and make one for myself. Thanks. | ||
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| Re: Be careful recording Win Rates, Mark, 5. Jul 2003 09:03 | ||
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| Like in poker, it depends. If you already know databases, it can be very simple, if you have to learn how to use/create one, it will be a little more diffucult. Having said that, i taught myself how to use Access 2002 with the Access2002 Bible ($100). Access is quite powerful and can do alot of things that a simple Excel Spreadsheet can't - however, a simple Excel spreadsheet is probably sufficient for most people. Where Access comes in handy is after you have collected huge amounts of data and want to query that data. (for example, after 5 years of poker you want to query all your games to see which online site was the most profitable) Mark | ||
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| Re: Be careful recording Win Rates, Paul Stine, 4. Jul 2003 17:50 | ||
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| on 4. Jul 2003 14:05 Mark wrote: > Hello, > > IF YOU DON'T KEEP RECORDS DON'T BOTHER READING THIS POST. > > This post may help some of you who keep long term records of win rates ($/hr, > BB/hr). I developed my own tracking database using Access and have been > recording my results for a few months now. > > When i finally got around to tabulating the date and creating reports I was > very surprised at what i saw. After looking farther into the data and my > reporting process i found "bug" in my math and thought i would share it. > > Basically, for one game i don't play very often, i was recording a total profit > for the game, but at the same time, was showing a losing win rate per hour. > > For example > > Total +/- = +$100 > $/hour = (-$25) > > This happened because i was averaging the indivual session win rates together. > This way of calculating gave the wrong result. > > For example > > lose $10 in 10 min, win rate is -$60/hour > > win 12 in 60 min, win rate is +12/hour > > Now, if these were the only 2 sessions i play, i still show a profit of $2. > However, if i average the Win Rates, i show a -$24/hour for that game. > > While this rate is correct, the value only shows worth after many, many hours > have been played. > > I hope this may helps some players > > mark > Mark, If you do some searching in the rgp archives on Google you should be able to find a formula for the average and variance of non-uniform length sessions that was posted by Sklansky or Malmuth a fair time ago (at least a few years.) I thought this might help in your analysis if it is something you don't do already (mostly thinking of variance here.) In fact there are some good discussions of variance estimator, both biased and unbiased, in the rgp archive on google (back in 1996 and 1997 this was dicussed extensively.) I suggest you used the advanced search and limit your search to the group rec.gambling.poker. Paul Stine College Station, TX | ||
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| Re: Be careful recording Win Rates, Mark, 5. Jul 2003 08:55 | ||
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| Thanks | ||
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| A Simple way to track your earn rate, flintsword, 5. Jul 2003 07:01 | ||
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| I just use an excel spreadsheet, one sheet per month, with the following columns: Date, Start play, Buyin$, End play, $Out, Session gain, Session $/hr, Monthly $/hr, Yearly $/hr, Game type, Game, Paradise Balance, Bugsysclub balance, Partypoker balance, UB balance, B&M balance, Misc balance. (eg) Under "Game type" I have for a session "T$10NL(6,1,1,3)" which meant I played four tournaments no-limit and came in 6th, 1st, 1st, and 3rd. For this five hour session, the "Buyin$" would be $44 and the "$Out" would be $120 Pretty primitive and it evolves month to month, but I think for strict amateurs, like myself, it is suitable. flintsword | ||
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| Re: A Simple way to track your earn rate, Mark, 5. Jul 2003 08:58 | ||
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| i used to do the same sort of thing with Excel. But then i had to buy Access for my business. If your not familiar with Access it is "like" Excel, only 1000 times better. You can create graphics and data entry screens, and have separte reports which display any data you wish, including total sums and equations results. mark | ||
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| Re: Be careful recording Win Rates, Easy E, 5. Jul 2003 18:39 | ||
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| Unless I 'm calculating incorrectly, your win rate was $1.71 an hour. Doing it by session (or anything but a total $/total time) is misleading, IMO and overvalues one side of the equation or another. Large numbers of hours will help it even out, but it won't be truly accurate. | ||
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| Re: Be careful recording Win Rates, flintsword, 5. Jul 2003 21:07 | ||
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| $120-$44 = $76 ... $76 divided by 5 hours = $15.20 per hour Not bad for a hobby ... :) flintsword | ||
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| Re: Be careful recording Win Rates, 4 POKER, 5. Jul 2003 21:20 | ||
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| on 5. Jul 2003 21:07 flintsword wrote: > $120-$44 = $76 ... $76 divided by 5 hours = $15.20 per hour > Not bad for a hobby ... :) > flintsword Flintsword, Yes, $15.20 an hour is a very good earn for a hobby, however, that was only based on 5 hours of play. It's definitely not long enough to get even close to an accurate read, though. Now, if you can still come up with those results after playing for a year or two on a consistant basis then yeah, those results would be really good for those limits, indeed. 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: Be careful recording Win Rates, flintsword, 6. Jul 2003 09:31 | ||
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| Sorry 4 POKER, I may have mistakenly given the impression that those 5 hours of play were in any way significant. You are 100% right that 5 hours is way too short a span. My calculation was ONLY to correct the calculation Easy E made that my sample 5 hours of play came out to $1.71 per hour. In another eight months I will have a full year of iron clad data, ... and then, and only then, will I begin to be able to have any reasonable degree of confidence in my numbers. Since I am pushing the envelope a bit, playing in games I honestly have no business being in, to improve my play by observation, my numbers are going to be a little cracked anyways. Thanks for the warning though, which is bang-on the thread of being careful recording win rates. flintsword | ||
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| Re: Be careful recording Win Rates, 4 POKER, 6. Jul 2003 19:09 | ||
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| Ahhh, I see. Ok, ........makes sense to me now. | ||
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| Re: Be careful recording Win Rates, Easy E, 7. Jul 2003 06:45 | ||
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| on 6. Jul 2003 09:31 flintsword wrote: My calculation was ONLY to > correct the calculation Easy E made that my sample 5 hours of play came out to $1.71 per hour. Well, you hadn't given us the 5 hours originally, so I was only calculating the win rate on your $10/$12 example (to show that the actual number $1.71 over 70 minutes was vastly different than the -$24 that you calculated.. which you did say was wrong when you gave it) in order to verify my point about the method being generally flawed.... But not important, either way | ||
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| Re: Be careful recording Win Rates, flintsword, 7. Jul 2003 17:39 | ||
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| Easy E, I see where your confusion comes from. There is the data at the beginning of the post, by Mark. Later on I gave a SEPARATE example, seen below: "just use an excel spreadsheet, one sheet per month, with the following columns: Date, Start play, Buyin$, End play, $Out, Session gain, Session $/hr, Monthly $/hr, Yearly $/hr, Game type, Game, Paradise Balance, Bugsysclub balance, Partypoker balance, UB balance, B&M balance, Misc balance. (eg) Under "Game type" I have for a session "T$10NL(6,1,1,3)" which meant I played four tournaments no-limit and came in 6th, 1st, 1st, and 3rd. For this five hour session, the "Buyin$" would be $44 and the "$Out" would be $120 Pretty primitive and it evolves month to month, but I think for strict amateurs, like myself, it is suitable." I *do* mention 5 hours for my data, but it looks like you thought it was my thread from the beginning. Sorry for the confusion. If the method you use to track your earn rate is different, I am sure I would not be alone at UPF interested in hearing from you. flintsword flintsword | ||
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