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Server Time: 10/8/2008 4:27:07 AM PACIFIC |
 Percentage of wins on the river for analysis, RICK K, 4. Jul 2003 06:54 | ||
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| Hey gang, A fellow player asked me this while at a table yesterday, so I asked him if he wanted me to pass this question along. This player wanted to know if there is a "guideline" for what pecent of play going to the river that results in your win would be thought of as unacceptable-adjust one's play "normal" Better than normal expectation He realizes fluctuations, and has a degree in statistics, but asks what you good players thought. thanks Rick K | ||
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| Re: Percentage of wins on the river for analysis, stdioh, 4. Jul 2003 08:10 | ||
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| First it really depends on the table texture at which you are playing. If the play is really loose and passive then you can see a lot more flops than normal, but lets say that you see 15% of flops for some fairly loose fairly passive table - a table you would want to play at. Again, if the table is fairly loose and passive then you should get more free turns when you don't have cards than you would at an agressive table, so lets say that you see about 30% of the turns when you see the flop. Now once you've seen the turn you are either on a draw that you can afford to see the river with or on a made hand that you think is the best, so it is unusual not to hang around to the river. Maybe if you've got top pair and get checkraised you'll much it or something. Let us say that if you see a turn you see 90% of the rivers. That means you see the river on about 4% of hands, so one in 25 hands. Of course we're not counting hands that you win without getting to the river in this count. If you're getting in 35 hands per hour that would mean that you see a river roughly once every 40 minutes or so. But this is all very much dependant on style and table texture. If the table is very tight agressive you'll likely see very few rivers and win more pots uncontested. If it is very calling-stationy, then you'll only win hands on the river and will see more. Very loose and you'll get involved in more hands. If there is a maniac at the table you'll have better pot odds on flops and turns that you see meaning that you can chase more draws and will fold there less ... it is very much a multivariate system, but the short answer is 4% is a good number. | ||
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| Re: Percentage of wins on the river for analysis, flintsword, 4. Jul 2003 08:21 | ||
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| stdioh gave a good answer, so I'll tackle your question from a different angle. I just finished looking into my online play journals and found that the number of times I saw the river decreased over time, as my "burn-rate" became an "earn-rate". I get 6%, on a sample of a 250 games. Hope the data helps. flintsword | ||
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