|
||
|
||
|
Server Time: 11/21/2008 6:01:29 PM PACIFIC |
 Another situation..., pt_Gatsby, 26. Jun 2003 12:17 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Hi all, Thanks for all your comments on my last newbie question. I took the advice and have ordered some more reading material... In the mean time, I continue to play based on what I have read here and online (ie: Mike Caro's university stuff, ect). And play whenever I get a chance, of course! A question that came up in yesterday's small pokerstars tourny (slightly less than 300 people); A little history to my position - I was at 3000+chips, with blinds being 75/150 (no pressure), the table was alternating between being really tight (3-4 pots were folded all the way to the BB! What's with that!?) and playing very aggressive with weak hands (Consistent all ins for small pairs, unsuited face cards). Being the oh-so-good player that I am (yah...), I decided to call one of these all-ins, 90% sure it was a buy (late raiser, had done so before). With about 800 in the pot already, I figured it was worth 1200 (leaving me with about 1100) to call on my pair of 5's (yes... I know). Cards come up, the opponent has a pair of 4's. They catch the third 4, and I'm down to 1000. Blinds go up to 100/200. Now I'm under pressure. I then proceed to buy 3 pots in a row on fairly good hands (all before the flop!). I play my standard 'desperate maniac' with a straight (was BB), and am suddenly up to 5700. The blinds go up this round and now there is antes, which were going to be hitting the other players . My hand comes up with QJs. I'm playing first and go for the buy (600 in, I think). Normally I would never of done this, but I knew the table quite well and expected it to go through, unless someone really wanted me not to do it again (ah, emotional plays). Fold around till the last guy (BB) who pushes in 5800 odd chips, all in. I think about this for a while - after going through the hands he had played in my mind, I was positive that he had a small pair. All in was the 'go ahead sign', I would of been unsure otherwise. No one else is in the game. With just that knowledge; Should I have played it? Pot before this was 550, plus my 600 already committed. He goes all-in (~5900). I was sure that he had a small pair (77 or lower). How would you look at this, given a similar situation. He had 66. However, no Q, no J, No flush, No straight, so I got knocked out at 87th. I broke the first rule that I learned about no limit... "Don't lose abruptly". I feel that I called the table dead on but did I really play that correctly? Or rather, with only 10 or so tables left and the pressure mounting on the smaller chips, was it worthwhile gambling on it to ensure that you could push through to 'money'? Again, thanks for any comments. Here's to having a similar table in all my games... but not throwing it away! | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., shorn, 26. Jun 2003 12:26 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I think this is a clear fold. You want to avoid coin flip decisions in the middle rounds because what can happen is preceisely waht did happen. You lose and you are out. The key to the tournament game is surviving...make these types of decisions when there is money at stake and not too early. In fact, you might want to not raise with QJs UTG. I realize the table that you were at sounded loose enough to have it work most of the time, but when it doesn't work you lose either a big raise or all your chips. I would have either tried to limp with QJs or maybe even mucked it altogether in EP. Just my 2 cents... | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., shorn, 26. Jun 2003 12:27 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I meant "sounded tight enough" to make the steal from EP... | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., john ray, 26. Jun 2003 12:40 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| i agree w/shorn, too many unanswered questions out there from UTG. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., THWebl, 26. Jun 2003 13:00 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Curious how you KNEW he had a small pair. If he's the big blind, and lets pretend he had AA, what do you think he would have done? Or AK. or JJ. The only thing you knew is that he had a hand he was willing to go all-in with. Maybe someone else sees something here i don't. But I can't imagine the BB only calling, and putting themselves in a position to be outdrawn. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., shorn, 26. Jun 2003 13:33 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Not really sure you get the point here. The key is that it is in the middle of the tournament where yoiu can't win it, but you can certainly lose it. You need to avoid these types of decisions in the middle stages. At best, he was a coin flip ahead (QJ to an underpair). At worst he was way behind as you point out, so either way it is a clear fold. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., pt_Gatsby, 26. Jun 2003 13:44 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Ah, that's exactly what I was looking for. In other words, under no non-desperate circumstances should I have played it, both from outset and after he had pushed all in. (Weak position, marginal hand, low reward = stupid). I guess all that table reading overruled my sense of value... Tunnel vision, and all that. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., pt_Gatsby, 26. Jun 2003 13:41 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I didn't 'know' in the sense that it was absolute. I took some time to think it out before I called it, and this was what I came up with; a) Unlikely anyone would challenge me upright. If they did, it was unlikely anyone at the table would push all in, b) This particular player was playing extremely conservatively; for him to push all-in was a sign of an emotional play, c) I had seemingly bought many hands in the last few rotations, d) As the only player left besides me, he was in a position to play his weaker hand. e) The previous hands he had played to the end had not been all that strong. He was quite passive with strong hands. I based the decision on the unlikely event that he would of gone all in (we were both about tied for chip leaders) on a strong hand. Outside of that, it was a stupid move, one I would never of considered normally. I do agree that the reward vs risk wasn't so good... I overplayed a marginal hand. But in straight odds, does anyone know the potential of QJs vs a small pair? (ie: which one would end up winning out, including matching up 3/4 of the smaller pair) ? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., stdioh, 26. Jun 2003 14:05 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| > I didn't 'know' in the sense that it was absolute. I took some time to think it out before I > called it, and this was what I came up with; I think you're doing something that we all did when we started out and it is something that I was especially guilty of (and still am from time to time) and that is overconfidence in reads. > a) Unlikely anyone would challenge me upright. If they did, it was unlikely anyone at the table > would push all in, But they would challenge you with a great hand. > b) This particular player was playing extremely conservatively; for him to push all-in was a sign > of an emotional play, ok. How about, "I want to punish this guy. I'm going to push my aces in and I bet he calls." > c) I had seemingly bought many hands in the last few rotations, Yes, but your hand isn't strong enough to defend against a resteal anyway. Generally speaking if you are to steal you need to have a hand at least as good as what you had, but you can't always call a resteal with it. I think to call there you would have needed a bare minimum of AQ or JJ...though I would be much more comfortable having QQ or AK. > d) As the only player left besides me, he was in a position to play his weaker hand. Sure, but that doesn't mean that he *doesn't* have good cards, just that he might have bad cards. > e) The previous hands he had played to the end had not been all that strong. He was quite passive > with strong hands. Yes, but there's no way you'll be passive with a very good pair here - especially something like QQ or JJ - it would be a giant mistake to be, since you can't afford to let the board come over you and lose value. > I based the decision on the unlikely event that he would of gone all in (we were both about tied > for chip leaders) on a strong hand. Nope. Generally speaking, the bigger stacks stay out of eachother's way. By coming back at you like that he was displaying a very strong hand - whether he had it or not is irrelevant - he's telling you he's got something big and you should fold. And since you don't want to risk those hard earned chips you have, you should. If he starts pulling this a lot then wait until he does it when you have a real hand and punish him. > But in straight odds, does anyone know the potential of QJs vs a small pair? (ie: which one would > end up winning out, including matching up 3/4 of the smaller pair) ? About 50/50 - I think with JQs you're a very slight lead over an underpair. Maybe you have as much as 55%. So long story short, you gave good reasons as to why he might have a small pair, but no good reasons as to why he couldn't have a good hand. He's entitled to just as many monsters as anybody else so just because he could have crap doesn't mean he does. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., Big_Slick, 26. Jun 2003 13:52 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| A pair of 5's is not a hand you want to all-in with when you are at a full table at the beginning of a tourney. That's just bad poker and you're asking to be booted early. Regardless of whether you think you can read players or not (i.e. "I was positive that he had a small pair"), players that continually go all-in are usually all-out of a tournament fairly quickly. The number one mistake that inexperienced NLHE players make is using the all-in play too often and in the wrong situations. I don't care if you have A-A 4 times in a tourney and go all-in each time. Sooner or later, someone is going to get lucky and outdraw you. It happens all the time. Now, it wouldn't surprise me a bit the BB had gotten sick and tired of you bullying everyone out of the blinds and decided to "take a shot" at you. Don't think that players are oblivious to what you are doing when you continually buy pots. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to know that you can't always have a great hand. Players pick up on this and begin to feel animosity towards you. That being said, Q-J suited is not a great hand to being going all-in with. It is a drawing hand when it's up against an Ace or King. With a reasonable pile of chips, you would have been better off playing solid poker and not trying all these fancy moves. I think it's safe to say that you went to the cookie jar one too many times. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., pt_Gatsby, 26. Jun 2003 14:00 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I don't disagree, but I should mention; I went all in only twice - Once was when I felt someone else was buying the pot with a weak hand (and yes, I don't think that was a smart thing to do now, no matter how carefully I had watched them). The other time was when the BB called me on my buy, which was what I was expecting to have happen - and yes, it definately did backfire. My 'buying' of the other pots wasn't that strong... I had a long string of good hands (actual good hands, heh) and I often raised late and ended up 'buying' anyway... not that many people stayed in at all. My mistake was unquestionably thinking I could do it again, from a weak position, with a drawing hand. Couldn't change gears! Which is funny considering I normally play very conservatively. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., Big_Slick, 26. Jun 2003 14:23 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I went all in only twice - Once was when I felt someone else was buying the pot with a weak hand Let them! Poker is all about picking your spots. You can't let emotions dictate how you play the game. I was playing in a tourney last night when great use of the all-in play was demonstrated. A player UNG held A-A but decided to limp in for deception purposes. Two other players limped in as well. The flop came 4-5-2. The Aces checked. The next player bet $200. The third player folded and the Aces put herself all-in. The other player agreed and went all-in as well. The Aces got booted when her opponent flipped over A-3... he had nutted a straight on the flop. This is the type of situation where you want to be throwing all your chips in the pot. The player with the Aces had watched one too many episodes of the World Poker Tour on the Travel Channel and decided to get cute. It cost her all of her chips. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., pt_Gatsby, 26. Jun 2003 14:34 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Hmmm... that's a good point (hard to argue it when everyone is telling you it, with good reasons!). I suppose this one is worse than just a mistake in that it was a rational mistake. I thought about it, and still did it wrong! Thanks for the comments :) | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., stdioh, 26. Jun 2003 14:06 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I couldn't have said it better. He might be deciding to punish you, but you still shouldn't call because this is the wrong spot to go all in. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., stdioh, 26. Jun 2003 13:56 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| > Being the oh-so-good player that I am (yah...), I decided to call one of these > all-ins, 90% sure it was a buy (late raiser, had done so before). With about > 800 in the pot already, I figured it was worth 1200 (leaving me with about 1100) > to call on my pair of 5's (yes... I know). Cards come up, the opponent has a > pair of 4's. They catch the third 4, and I'm down to 1000. Yeah - that was a very very very bad move, but it sounds like you know that already. > I play my standard > 'desperate maniac' with a straight (was BB), and am suddenly up to 5700. Good - this is the right time for that sort of thing - you weere desperate. You got the hand you needed. > The blinds go up this round and now there is antes, which were going to be > hitting the other players . My hand comes up with QJs. I'm playing first and > go for the buy (600 in, I think). Normally I would never of done this, but I > knew the table quite well and expected it to go through, unless someone really > wanted me not to do it again (ah, emotional plays). Here'e what should be going through your head with that hand. You've got a wonderful drawing hand, but it is total garbage unless you can hit it hard. It is a hand where hitting a jack or queen is nice, but you're really looking for a harder hit than that maybe a pair with a flush draw? I think that raising this hand for a steal is ok, but only if you are the puck or cutoff and it has been folded around to you. If you are in earlier position it becomes a question of limping or folding. I don't think you were under enough pressure to make limping with this hand a mistake. Nonetheless, if the table was as tight as you said, trying to steal with this from early position isn't the end of the world. What you need to realize is that you are stealing - the hand doesn't have a huge amount of verve to it. You're ok with getting called and seeing a flop, but you have to figure that somebody who reraises to isolate you likely has AK or a biggish pair (JJ or better probably). Thus if I were to raise that hand I would still be willing to let it go - which is why I would probably limp with it rather than raising with it unless on the puck or cutoff. > Fold around till the last guy (BB) who pushes in 5800 odd chips, all in. I > think about this for a while - after going through the hands he had played in my > mind, I was positive that he had a small pair. All in was the 'go ahead sign', > I would of been unsure otherwise. No one else is in the game. With just that > knowledge; > > Should I have played it? Pot before this was 550, plus my 600 already > committed. He goes all-in (~5900). I was sure that he had a small pair (77 or > lower). How would you look at this, given a similar situation. You should not have played it, in my opinion. Yes, you did get yourself in pretty deep there, but you weren't married to the pot at that point. You could afford to fold there and not be in desperate shape. The guy is very likely not reraising you on an all-in bluff here - he's got to at least have an ace and more likely some pair. Now here's where things go south. If he's got TT or less, which you put him on, you're only a very very slight favourite to beat him with your large suited connectors. There is a 4% chance that you make a flush something like a 2% chance that you make a straight, and there's about a 48% chance that you beat him without making either. Thus, you're a marginal favourite. Now we weigh the disadvantage of losing vs. the advantage of winning. If you fold here, you're ok. You've lowered your stack, but that money is in the pot and you can't think of it as in any way being yours anymore. So either you are going to double up (plus get one extra insignificant small blind) or you are going to bust out. Busting out has a 45% chance and gives you a 0% chance of winning the tournament. Folding gives you an X% chance of winning the tournament where X is between 0 and 100 depending on stack sizes, quality of players, and tonnes of factors. Calling and winning gives you a chance of winning less than 2X - obviously doubling your stack isn't going to double your chance of winning at this stage. What does that mean? It means that you should fold. Now if you had a 50% chance of tripling your stack you may well have more than twice the chance of winning, in a given situation, but in this case you're just about flipping a coin. Just because it is incorrect for him to go all in against you doesn't make it correct for you to go all in against him. The long and short of it is that if you were truely truely desperate, doubling your stack would more than double your expected money in the tournament and it would be worth taking the coin flip. Since you are relatively safe in your stack size, doubling does not double your chances of moneying and thus you should fold. As a guideline you should have the weighted advantage on a move that ups your total equity in the tournament. Usually your last few chips are worth more than others and doubling your stack on a coin flip isn't worth the risk - it is only when you are seriously squeezed that the last few chips get worth less since you are approaching being blinded off. > He had 66. However, no Q, no J, No flush, No straight, so I got knocked out at > 87th. I broke the first rule that I learned about no limit... "Don't lose > abruptly". I feel that I called the table dead on but did I really play that And the reason for that rule is what was stated above. Here you raised with something iffy in a steal attempt, but then seemed to forget that you were stealing and didn't fold the hand to a massive reraise. If you wanted to play the hand out then you should have limped there - by raising you are essentially either committing to go all in if you are put there or deciding to fold. Your JQ is just not strong enough to go all in here, even if you know that your opponent is on a small pair. And your reads can't be 100% right either. What if he's on a big pair? What if he's on a big ace? AK has you in some trouble, but KQ, AQ, and AJ have you dominated. Likewise AA, KK, QQ, and JJ all have you dominated. There are very few hands that you could have dominated here that somebody would push in with. TT? Maybe, but doubtful. TJs? Naw. Essentially, a coin flip is the best outcome you can hope for here and even there it isn't worth calling. Anyhow, it is good to hear that you are learning to play tournaments and I don't want to be too hard on you. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., pt_Gatsby, 26. Jun 2003 14:17 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Don't worry about being too hard. If something is stupid, its stupid! I would rather hear about it than do it again! But that was one of the best explanations I have heard. At some level I knew it was wrong, but I couldn't really explain why (which is why I brought it up, stupid plays and all). It does give me a couple of questions. Obviously even in a play in which you have 70/30 advantage or so, how often can you equate that with the 'large' picture? I mean, winning 30% more chips will rarely be comparable? Lets say that you had AKs rather than QJ... or just outright, what hand would you be willing to match his all in? Its funny because I can almost see the skill wall hit. I play well up to a certain point, then I get nailed. I guess a lot of it has to do with the learning process, trying to emulate other players/styles. Not always going to work out (and often because you don't understand it yet). But many thanks for that - it really helped out. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., stdioh, 26. Jun 2003 14:44 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| There's no cut and dry way to know what your chances are of winning a tourney. It is an art. Likewise, it takes time and lots of reading to know what the chance of winning is in a matchup and what your opponents are likely to hold. If it was easy, everybody would be doing it and there would be no dead money (read: pai gow) and then only the house would win. So what you need to do is get practice. Really put emphasis on the value of your last few trips and try not to get pot committed unless you are really willing to shove all in. As a general rule, unless you are desperate you don't want to be all in unless you are fairly sure that you will win. Basically if you say, "I have QQ - there is a 10% chance he has AK and a 5% chance he has KK or AA" Thus I'm a 5% chance to be dead meat and a 10% chance to coin flip, but a 90% chance of being at least a 70% favourite and maybe 20% of the time I've against a smaller pair giving me a big edge. So I say that I'm a 75% chance to win the hand." Then you look at your stack and say, "I have him outchipped so all in against him only risks 70% of what I have and the remaining 30% is surviveable. I have a 75% chance of gaining 70% of my stack and a 25% chance of losing 70% of it, but with the money out there, if he folds then I have a 100% chance of increasing my stack by 5%." This should be the sort of thought process. Never be afraid of going "onto the tank" and thinking about something for a while. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., chasepoker, 26. Jun 2003 18:00 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| If you want to really help your game every time you go out of a tourny write down the details of it on, for example, an excell spreadsheet. I did this and found the pattern was i was either going out one of two ways the first was over betting the pot and getting commited to the pot with a hand that was at best 50/50 the other was over playing small pairs ( Q's and below in NL ) before the flop. I have found that when you get all in pre flop with Q's J's and T's all you end up doing is only ever getting called by K's, A's and AK's ( none of which are ideal for small pairs to be up against all in in NL ). Chasepoker | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Another situation..., Schuster, 27. Jun 2003 00:17 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| As everyone else said, even if you knew with 100% certainty he had 5-5, you should not call. In a tournament, since going broke means you're done, you should avoid close gambles for a large amount of chips, because by doing so and losing, you miss the opportunity to make much better bets later. The one thing about this is that it assumes you are one of the better players in the tournament. If you are sitting in a tournament and you know that you are severly overmatched, you should take close gambles (maybe if you are even a slight underdog) for a lot of chips in hopes that you do double up, and ride that out to the money. Of course, playing in a tournament where you are likely dead money isn't smart poker, and should be avoided when possible. Lee | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| POKER FORUM HOME | POKER FORUM | LINK TO US | ARCHIVE | ONLINE POKER | Copyright 2002, United Poker Forum |
|
Getting Started |
UPF Tournaments |
Poker News, Views, Rules |
Poker Strategy & Psychology |
Money and Bankroll Poker Bonuses & Promotions | World Series of Poker (WSOP) | Play Online Poker | Poker Odds & Statistics | Tournament Poker | Poker Books, Videos & Learning Tools Looking for a Poker Game | Poker Bad Beats | Not Quite Poker | Quizzes and Polls | Forum Suggestions & Bugs |
|
|
|
|
Interesting Links: Online Poker | Free Poker Games | United Poker Network |
|