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Server Time: 9/5/2008 5:02:23 PM PACIFIC |
 Calculating Pot Odds, Alfonse, 25. Jun 2003 10:17 | ||
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| Question for all you math wizards out there from a political science major: If you're playing hold 'em and you've got an 8 9 in the hole and the flop comes 10 J 3 you've got 8 outs to make a straight. Which of the following is correct way to calculate your pot odds: 1. 47 cards to come, so you would need pot odds of 4.875 to 1 to call (39 bad cards to 8 good cards). Round to about 5 to 1 required pot odds for a call. 2. 47 to 8 or 5.875. Round to about 6 to 1 required pot odds for a call. And, since you've got two chances to make your straight, do you adjust your pot odds to reflect the two opportunities? i.e.: 1. 39 to 8 plus 38 to 8 which works out to 2.4 to 1. Round to 2.5 to 1. 2. 47 to 8 plus 46 to 8 which works out to 2.9 to 1. Round to 3 to 1. The question boils down to: is it the ratio of bad cards to good cards that determines your pot odds, or it the ratio of good cards to total cards to come that determines your pot odds. And, do you factor in your two opportunites to make your hand when making your calculation. | ||
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| Re: Calculating Pot Odds, stdioh, 25. Jun 2003 10:23 | ||
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| Your pot odds are reflected by your chance of making the hand as it relates to the amount of money in the pot and the amount of money that you need to pony up. If you have an up/down straight draw and there is no flush draw on board then you have 8 clean outs and there are 47 cards remaining in the deck that you haven't seen. Thus you have an 8/47 chance of making it on the turn and a 39/47*8/46 chance of making it on the river (and not making it on the turn) which gives you a 1 in 3.18 chance of making your hand. Now if you don't hit on the turn then your pot odds only reflect your chances of making the hand on the river and will be 8/46 which is 1 in 5.75. So if you have to call 1 small bet and there are more than 3 small bets in the pot then you can call with an up/down draw on the flop. Now on the turn you'll have to have 6 or more big bets in the pot for it to be worth calling. If on the flop it doesn't look like you'll be getting odds to call on the turn if you don't hit then you shouldn't be calling the flop, but likewise if there isn't quite enough, you can still factor in some implied odds - extra bets that you should get if you make your hand. | ||
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| Re: Calculating Pot Odds, Risky Business, 25. Jun 2003 10:38 | ||
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| Where does 3.18 come from? You've lumped the numbers together, but your odds are never 1/3.18, right? Capisco the 39bad/47remaining and the 8good/46 remaining bit. Jun 2003 10:23 stdioh wrote: > Your pot odds are reflected by your chance of making the hand as it relates to the > amount of money in the pot and the amount of money that you need to pony up. If you > have an up/down straight draw and there is no flush draw on board then you have 8 > clean outs and there are 47 cards remaining in the deck that you haven't seen. Thus > you have an 8/47 chance of making it on the turn and a 39/47*8/46 chance of making it > on the river (and not making it on the turn) which gives you a 1 in 3.18 chance of > making your hand. Now if you don't hit on the turn then your pot odds only reflect > your chances of making the hand on the river and will be 8/46 which is 1 in 5.75. > > So if you have to call 1 small bet and there are more than 3 small bets in the pot > then you can call with an up/down draw on the flop. Now on the turn you'll have to > have 6 or more big bets in the pot for it to be worth calling. If on the flop it > doesn't look like you'll be getting odds to call on the turn if you don't hit then > you shouldn't be calling the flop, but likewise if there isn't quite enough, you can > still factor in some implied odds - extra bets that you should get if you make your > hand. | ||
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| Re: Calculating Pot Odds, Alfonse, 25. Jun 2003 10:46 | ||
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| What is "capisco"? | ||
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| Re: Calculating Pot Odds, stdioh, 25. Jun 2003 11:59 | ||
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| The 3.18 is the denominator in your chance to make your hand. You have a 1 in 3.18 chance of making a straight with 8 outs. Why? 8/47= 0.17021 39/47=0.829787 8/46=0.173913 39/47*8/46 = 0.14431 + 8/47 = 0.31452 Which is equal to 1/3.17941 Hence 3.18 | ||
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| Re: Calculating Pot Odds, Paul Stine, 25. Jun 2003 12:10 | ||
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| on 25. Jun 2003 11:59 stdioh wrote: > The 3.18 is the denominator in your chance to make your hand. You have a 1 in 3.18 chance of > making a straight with 8 outs. Why? > > 8/47= 0.17021 > 39/47=0.829787 > 8/46=0.173913 > > 39/47*8/46 = 0.14431 > + 8/47 = 0.31452 > Which is equal to 1/3.17941 > > Hence 3.18 > The odds against making your hand are 2.18 (misses) to 1 (make). Paul Stine College Station, TX | ||
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| Re: Calculating Pot Odds, stdioh, 25. Jun 2003 13:33 | ||
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| Absolutely. You have a 1 in 3.18 chance which are odds of 2.18 to 1 against. | ||
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| Re: Calculating Pot Odds, Alfonse, 25. Jun 2003 10:43 | ||
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| Thanks. You're answer cleared up a lot for me. Although if you're as good at poker as you are at calculating pot odds, I hope I never see you at a table. | ||
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| Re: Calculating Pot Odds, shorn, 25. Jun 2003 11:48 | ||
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| stdioh kind of alluded to this, but I like to be more conservative and only consider my chances of making the str8 on the bext card. So, with 8 outs, I would want the 5 to 1 to call on the flop in order to continue, unless I had collateral outs (say I held KQ and the flop came JT2, so potentially a K or Q could win it for me too). I don't like to "assume" that it is 3.18 to 1 to make it by the reiver, because you make a big assumption that you will only have to pay 1 BB on the turn to continue on. | ||
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| Re: Calculating Pot Odds, Jav, 25. Jun 2003 10:37 | ||
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| Stdio wrote a nice reply under this topic for the pot odds (and he even used a 52 card deck :). One thing you also need to consider is your chance of making your hand but still losing. So for your example, a 7 helps you a lot more than a Q. The 7 gives you the nuts (assuming there are no pairs or flush possibilities on the board), whereas the Q gives you a straight that might be second best. So you probably want to calculate the pot odds correctly, but then make adjustments based on the fact that you might not win the hand even if you get the card you were looking for. | ||
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| Re: Calculating Pot Odds, ranwel, 25. Jun 2003 11:11 | ||
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| Try this: Take a look at the immediate pot odds you getting; don't consider your cards. eg: $50.00 in pot, and to bet is $10.00, therefore your "effective pot odds" are 5:1. Add 1 to the "effective pot odds". eg. The above 5:1 becomes 6:1. Now take your odds ( in the above example, 6:1 or just 6 for multiplying ease ) and multiply it times the number of outs that you think you have. This final number we will label 'C'. If 'C' is greater than 47 on the flop, your hand is worth at least a call. If 'C' is greater than 46 on the turn, your hand is worth at least a call. So the whole thing looks like: C = outs * (1+effective pot odds) Hope this helps and was not just a re-hash of some old material. I believe I obtained this information from an article written by Abdul. I think it was called "Theory of Sucking Out According to Abdul". Do a Google, I'm sure you can find out more. ranwel - Official Hackee-sak of the Poker Gods | ||
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