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Server Time: 2/13/2012 7:22:05 AM PACIFIC |
 please help me settle a bet about odds, jdsalinger, 24. Jun 2003 09:37 | ||
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| I'm have a bet with a friend about when to call a gut shot in limit play. If it's been raise preflop I say almost 75% of the time you are getting odds to call a gutshot. I think mathematically you're a 10 3/4 to 1 to hit for a small bet and about a 5 to 1 chance to make with 2 cards to come. He somehow thinks the odds of making are far greater and doesn't believe me. | ||
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| Re: please help me settle a bet about odds, shorn, 24. Jun 2003 10:35 | ||
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| Well, if it has been raised pre-flop and there are 5 callers, then you will have your 11-1 on the flop to call. Basically, you have 4 outs (assuming a rainbow flop of 3 different suits), you have seen 5 cards so there are 47 left. So, 43/4 on the next card or slightly worse than 11-1. One word of caution though...DO NOT call on the flop if you are only getting 5-1 because that assumes that you are staying until the river where it might cost you another big bet to get there (so in effect your original pot odds are 11-3, or 3.6 to 1 and not good enought o call). Re-evaluate the size of the pot on the turn if you don't hit to make sure you are getting 11-1 AGAIN before continuing. | ||
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| Re: please help me settle a bet about odds, noiseboy, 24. Jun 2003 11:59 | ||
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| Good response, however due to implied odds, you can get accept a bit lower pot odds IF the straight you are going to make is the nuts AND you expect to get paid off if you make the hand. Sometimes I'll take a card off on a gutshot if I'm last to act with less than 11 to 1 if these conditions are met. | ||
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| Re: please help me settle a bet about odds, shorn, 24. Jun 2003 12:38 | ||
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| Yes, but not 5 to 1. I would most likely call the flop and/or turn with 9 to 1, but no less than that. The flop must also be rainbow and as you said, my str8 has to be the nuts. | ||
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| Re: please help me settle a bet about odds, noiseboy, 24. Jun 2003 12:55 | ||
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| yep, 5 to 1 is not nearly enough. 9 to 1 is enough to take the turn card, but probably fold to a bet if you don't hit depending on a recalc of the odds on turn. | ||
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| Re: please help me settle a bet about odds, stdioh, 24. Jun 2003 12:34 | ||
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| Assuming that you have the good end of the gutshot and there isn't a flush draw out there (say the board is 456 and you hold 89) then you have 4 clean outs to the nuts and you'll be getting some implied odds on your call probably. Lets assume that if you make your hand nobody will call a bet from you though and see what your odds are for the money you know you can get a piece of. There are 2 cards to come and there are 4 7's somewhere in 50 unknown cards. Thus you have a 4/50 chance of hitting it on the turn and a 46/50*4/49 chance of hitting it on the river and not the turn. That lays you which is roughly 1 in 6.4 ... now here's the crux of the matter that makes this advanced, so listen carefully. Assume that there are 3 people in the hand and you marginally have odds to call on the flop so another 1.5 big bets go into the pot. The only reason you had odds to call on the flop is because a large amount of money went in preflop, but you're not planning on putting a large amount of money in on the flop because you wouldn't have odds then. Thus a small amount of money goes in on the flop. Now when the stakes double on the turn, you have only marginally increased your money to be had, you've doubled the amount to call, and you've reduced your chances of hitting on the river. Now you only have a 4/49 chance of hitting your card on the river. That is 1 in 12.25. Generally speaking, you can't afford to call on the flop unless you plan to call on the turn when you don't hit. If you won't be able to afford to see the river then you can't afford to see the turn. Now if you think you'll be paid off when you hit (and in the situation described you should be paid off by anybody with an 8 at least) then you have implied odds which you can add to the equation. Likewise, if a backdoor flush draw comes, that will add a small amount of negative to the mix unless you yourself are also drawing to a backdoor flush. Remember that a backdoor flush is worth about 2 outs so if you're going to fish around for a gutshot then it is nice to have that extra little bit of zing in your hand. Nonetheless, if you want to play smart, then any time you're contemplating calling on a gutshot and you don't know what to do, toss your hand in the muck. | ||
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| Re: please help me settle a bet about odds, shorn, 24. Jun 2003 12:39 | ||
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| You use a 55 card deck? Man my odds would be messed.... | ||
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| Re: please help me settle a bet about odds, stdioh, 24. Jun 2003 13:13 | ||
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| Jesus Tapdancing Christ! I'm sorry guys. You should probably disregard everything I've written today. Combine deadlines on my compiler, a bad landing from a dive in my pool on Sunday night, not enough sleep, 33 degree heat, and watching episodes of "The Family Guy" on DVD last night, and you can see why I can't so much as even count. | ||
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| Re: please help me settle a bet about odds, shorn, 24. Jun 2003 13:21 | ||
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| No worries buddy. Just a small slip. And with all that you just described happening, it is a wonder you can type today... | ||
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