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Server Time: 10/11/2008 12:56:47 AM PACIFIC |
 AK final table No Limit, chasepoker, 23. Jun 2003 04:43 | ||
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| On line NL tourny 450 runners, 9 people left at final table i have just under average chips ( 40000 ) with 2 big leaders on 100000, 3 limpers on 20000 and everyone else around or just under the 35000 mark. Payoff for places 1st 45% 2nd 25% 3rd 15% 4th 10% but with the big jump in prizes from 8th to 7th. The table is fairly passive with with even the big chip leaders not gettiing much of a chance to steal pots ( a lot of raising going on by people in early positions who are often taking it down pre flop or seeing a flop checked to them and then betting the flop to win - as you might expect at this stage). Anyway i get AKo on the Big Blind all gets folded around to one of the 100000 guys who is on the small blind he bets 40000 ( me all in ) i already have 5000 in the big blind. At this stage i folded my reasons were: - the guy who bet had not played a hand for about 20 hands - if i call with my AK here i am probably at best 55-45 behind ( to a pair ) or maybe even worse off if i am looking at K's or A's - The only hand i could realisticaly expect him to have that i like is AQ but would bet half his stack on AQ ? - I am almost assured 7th place ( where the money jumps ) by just checking and folding .( i can just feel it the way te table has been playing) My aim was to get into at least 7th as that is ammount i felt i wanted to get to at least , should i have done that at the chance of giving up a bigger win ? Would anyone have played it another way ( ie called his all in ) I have read Slanksy on All in with AK and get the impression that my move was correct but would like to hear other opinions. Oh by the way as it happens i fold this hand it gets down to 7 i get AQ call the chip leader pre flop, who has raised the previous ten pots and my AQ loses to his J5s when he hits a flush but interestingly i was only 62% favourite to win that so he was 2-1 behind and seeing as how he had picked up about 20% of the tourny chips doing eactly the same for the previous ten hands he wasnt in too bad shape ! Sorry for the ramble love to hear some replies CP | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, hawaii, 23. Jun 2003 05:38 | ||
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| i think u did the rite thing man. i would probably fold too if it meant for sure i would move up to 7th place. | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, shorn, 23. Jun 2003 06:12 | ||
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| The old was the right play here. You were not in danger of being blinded out just yet and you want to avoid the big stacks except with really big hands (AA, KK, QQ). Tough laydown, but the right call given the circumstances. | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, Khaos, 23. Jun 2003 07:19 | ||
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| You should of called. I have played professionally for over 28 years. I have not worked a "real job" since 1978. One of the oldest no limit tricks not in any book is raising of the Big Blind by the Little Blind when there are no callers and only the big blind left to act with any ace or face! Secondly the money jump could not of been that great! You should be playing for 1st not a move from 9th place money to 7th. If I would have to make a guess the raise was with a Ace or a face/blank. My guess is he had not made a call in 20 hands because he was looking to lock up one of the top 3 spots with his 100k.When the oppurtunity came to steal he took it and you assumed he had a big pair. Even if he had a pair your still almost even money to win the hand! In my opinion you made a bad play and will never find out. Remember these are not professionals your playing against but novices like yourself. The move was to call. Good luck, Larry | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, shorn, 23. Jun 2003 08:01 | ||
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| Larry- Why take what you deem an "even money" chance to win when you aren't forced too? He was playing with his whole stack here and he did say that moving from 9th to 7th was a good deal more in $$. I am not saying you are wrong here and I agree that the SB steal is a play that is made often. But, he wasn't in that much danger of being blinded off yet, so why take a chance this early? | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, shorn, 23. Jun 2003 08:04 | ||
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| And, do you really think a chip leader would steal with 40% of his stack to win what, $7500 (blinds $5k and $2500 I assume)? That doesn't make sense to me especially since he could continue to wait around and make the top 3 where the $$ gets big. The more I think about it, the more I am sure that the fold was the right play. | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, Mark, 23. Jun 2003 10:32 | ||
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| This looks like an obvious steal attempt. The raiser was putting chasepoker in for all his chips, the right thing to do in NL. I would definately have called as AK may be the last good hand I would see for a while. The raiser would also be very aware of his tight image, making this even more likely to be a steal attempt. mark on 23. Jun 2003 08:04 shorn wrote: > And, do you really think a chip leader would steal with 40% of his stack to win what, $7500 > (blinds $5k and $2500 I assume)? That doesn't make sense to me especially since he could > continue to wait around and make the top 3 where the $$ gets big. > > The more I think about it, the more I am sure that the fold was the right play. | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, MozMan, 23. Jun 2003 08:59 | ||
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| chase- While he almost certainly was trying to steal, I'm not gonna call in this situation either. Big Slick tends to be a very slippery hand (maybe that's why they call it that?) and given the bubble you are trying to break, it really is a crap shoot. I think you did the right thing. -Moz "Truly, you have a dizzying intellect." | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, Paul Stine, 23. Jun 2003 10:39 | ||
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| I'm writing this before I have read any of the other responses, so someone may have covered this ground. First and foremost, I generally want to be *betting* my chips all-in and not *calling* my chips all-in. Second, what does your opponent's bet say about his hand? He has raised about three times the pot. Sounds like someone that definitely doesn't want to get played with. You say the big stack has not been playing very aggressively and now he comes blasting out for half of his stack. Sounds like a medium pair or a middle to weak ace. At this stage I just try and think cool thoughts and wait for a better spot to risk all my chips. If he's bluffing, hey, so what? It worked and he risked a lot of chips to win a little. If he wasn't bluffing, then you just saved your chips for a better spot where *you* are the aggressor, where *you* have posiiton. Paul Stine College Station, TX on 23. Jun 2003 04:43 chasepoker wrote: > On line NL tourny 450 runners, 9 people left at final table i have just under > average chips ( 40000 ) with 2 big leaders on 100000, 3 limpers on 20000 and > everyone else around or just under the 35000 mark. > > Payoff for places 1st 45% 2nd 25% 3rd 15% 4th 10% but with the big jump in > prizes from 8th to 7th. > > The table is fairly passive with with even the big chip leaders not gettiing > much of a chance to steal pots ( a lot of raising going on by people in early > positions who are often taking it down pre flop or seeing a flop checked to them > and then betting the flop to win - as you might expect at this stage). > > Anyway i get AKo on the Big Blind all gets folded around to one of the 100000 > guys who is on the small blind he bets 40000 ( me all in ) i already have 5000 > in the big blind. > > At this stage i folded my reasons were: > > - the guy who bet had not played a hand for about 20 hands > - if i call with my AK here i am probably at best 55-45 behind ( to a pair ) or > maybe even worse off if i am looking at K's or A's > - The only hand i could realisticaly expect him to have that i like is AQ but > would bet half his stack on AQ ? > - I am almost assured 7th place ( where the money jumps ) by just checking and > folding .( i can just feel it the way te table has been playing) > > My aim was to get into at least 7th as that is ammount i felt i wanted to get > to at least , should i have done that at the chance of giving up a bigger win > ? > > Would anyone have played it another way ( ie called his all in ) > > I have read Slanksy on All in with AK and get the impression that my move was > correct but would like to hear other opinions. > > Oh by the way as it happens i fold this hand it gets down to 7 i get AQ call > the chip leader pre flop, who has raised the previous ten pots and my AQ loses > to his J5s when he hits a flush but interestingly i was only 62% favourite to > win that so he was 2-1 behind and seeing as how he had picked up about 20% of > the tourny chips doing eactly the same for the previous ten hands he wasnt in > too bad shape ! > > Sorry for the ramble love to hear some replies > CP | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, SendMoney, 23. Jun 2003 10:45 | ||
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| I think it would have been a tough call if the AK was suited instead of offsuite. Being suited usually can sometimes be a tie-breaker for me when looking for a late stages all-in hand - because if you do make a mistake and you're up against say AA or KK you're probably going to need that flush draw to win....some interesting stats... AhKh vs AdAc - 11.51% chance to win. AhKs vs AdAc - 6.79% chance to win. AhKh vs KdKc - 33.69% chance to win. AhKs vs KdKc - 29.59% chance to win. AhKh vs QdQc - 46.01% chance to win. AhKs vs QdQc - 42.66% chance to win. As you can see being suited counts for about an extra 4% chance to win, and at a final table you need every extra out. You were put to a tough decision and you made the appropriate laydown since you were wanted to be assured of 7th place and wanted to save your ammo for down the road. There are way too many what ifs involved to worry about it, if he had any pocket pair down to 22 you were an underdog or coin flip at best, if he had a suited connector 4-5 thru 8-9 you are only about a 60% favorite, if he had ANY suited hand you are only about a 2-1 favorite, the best you could have hoped for was for him to have an offsuit ace, making you about a 71% favorite. Anytime you go All-In before the flop with less than AA or KK you're really taking your chances. Remember the World Poker Tour show in Paris, Allen Cunningham making a great read on Crazy Claude and calling Claude's all-in raise, Cunningham's A10s lost to Claude's K3o when the turn and river both brought 3's. No consolation prize for going all-in with the best hand. Ultimately make the decisions that make you comfortable. | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, Mark, 23. Jun 2003 13:13 | ||
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| I don't understand why you would assume he has something as good as QQ. Good players would make that play agaisnt a tight-passive player with ANYTHING. (i don't know if chasepoker's image is tight-passive, but from his fold i would assume it is). there are alot of hands the raise could have and at worst, chase is probably only a slight dog. mark | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, spk, 23. Jun 2003 14:19 | ||
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| I know that you mention that this player had not had any action for approximatly 20 hands, however had he been in the postion of everyone folding ahead of him from the small blind. At best I put him on a AJ....so what place did you end up finishing??? | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, palman, 23. Jun 2003 15:14 | ||
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| Definately call. If there were 40 people left in the tournament, then you consider a laydown based on the person. But at the final table you just can't be that passive when you're short stacked. Either take your bad luck about being up against AA or KK while you hold AK, and finish somewhere close to where you mathematically should with your stack, or call it and have a strong chance of being a HUGE favorite , not only for the hand, but being #2 in chips not far behind #1. The monetary difference from 9th to 6/7/8 isn't nearly as great as the chance you had to be a favorite for the 1/2 spots. ESPECIALLY with that many people in the tournament. You can't win a decent final table without gambling, play methodical early, and gamble at the end. What would Doyle do there? | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, chasepoker, 24. Jun 2003 05:27 | ||
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| But what i did was to fold and wait for a better opportunity which i got a little later with virtually the same stack size ( i got all in pre flop woth AQo vs a J5s) surely this vindicates my decision as i prefered this situation to the one i had with AK. Also i really did not believe at the time that he would have made that play with any hand other than one which i was at best 45% ( pair) chance and at worst a 30% or 10% ( A's or K's) he only possible hand that i wanted him to show me was AK. I can see there is a lot of differnce of opinion on this one ! Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, palman, 23. Jun 2003 15:36 | ||
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| Actually, I am going to try to analyze this psychologically. The person to your right has AA. He's hoping he gets some action, and lots of it. But everyone folds. He's cursing himself now. The last thing that's going through his mind is "lets overbet the pot resulting in the least chance I'll get any action, so my rockets are assured to only get the blinds" He's thinking... well at least lets try to get something out of it. So with AA or KK, he's likely just going to double the blinds, in the perfect attempt to make it look like he's going to try and buy it. At this point he's gunning to hopefully get 1/3 to 1/2 your stack. The best way to do that is invite you in, hope you catch a piece of the flop, make a weak bet, then check on the turn to act weak. The ONLY way I see him having AA or KK at this spot is if you are known as a wildly aggressive player who calls bets like that frequently. Which since you laid it down I would HIGHLY doubt you had that image, if any image being it so soon at the final table. You mentioned that there was a big jump from 7th to 8th that you were waiting for, if 4th was only 10%, how large could that have jump possibly been? 1st usually gets 20-25% on online tournaments, so 1st being 45% in this one and 2nd being 25% means you should ONLY be gunning for 1st or 2nd, and not even worrying about the early jumps. In your situation, with two HUGE chipleaders, I'd take being a slight dog with him holding a medium pair, to double up and actually be the FAVORITE for being #2 and getting 25% of the prize money. The setup of the tournament payouts warrants a coinflip double-up in your situation, according to your %'s of the payouts, 95% goes to the top 4. So that's 5% divided amongst the next 5, assuming (with 450 people) no one else got paid. | ||
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| Re: AK final table No Limit, shorn, 24. Jun 2003 04:58 | ||
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| Palman- Good points. My thinking on this comes from being an inexperienced NL tourny player, one who has never finished in the Top 3 (8th is my best). So, moving from 9th to 7th to me (as opposed to someone like yourself who most likely has won events...this applies to mark as well) still has more importance and hence makes me more cautious. Thanks for setting me straight at least that the payout structure at this stage in the game is the most important factor in the call/fold decision (not to mention your great analysis of why he most likely doesn't have AA or KK). Steve | ||
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