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Server Time: 11/21/2008 6:28:32 PM PACIFIC |
 Note keeping, JLenart, 22. Jun 2003 08:24 | ||
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| A post a week or so ago reccomended keeping track of your play during tounaments. I've been doing it for the past few days and theres something I see that disgusts me. Actually it hasn't been my play but rather the suck outs I've suffered. Here are a few examples 1) Mid position QhAh I'm low on chips so I push all in. Fold to BB who calls with J8o. Flop comes A,Q 9 turn is a blank and river comes a 10 to suck out a straight on me. I'm out. 2) I'm dealt Kh Kc on the button, I reraise all in a small raise from mid position, he calls with pockets 7's Flop comes 8c, 6c, 10h turn is 3d river 9s....suckout #2 puts me out 3) Im dealt QQ in the Cut off. I reraise a late position player all in he calls with pocket 9's , a nine hits on the flop makeing his set that holds up. AAAARRRGGGG. I'm not trying to vent a bad beat story here but I've been getting my chips in with the best of it every time and seem to be losing. What do you all do when you go on a bad run like this. These beats come after a few days off of poker. Am I rusty? Do I need more time off? Help I can't stand it any more. Thanks, John | ||
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| Re: Note keeping, Mark, 22. Jun 2003 08:53 | ||
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| You did the right thing in each hand, you got your money in with the best of it. Just keeping making those same plays and things will turn around mark | ||
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| Re: Note keeping, stdioh, 23. Jun 2003 10:13 | ||
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| First off, it doesn't matter what order the cards come out in when you're all-in. Hitting a card on the river is nolonger a suckout. Second, it is statistically very resonable to make a set with a pair. For instance, lets look at 99 vs. QQ. You're a big favourite, but it isn't groundbreaking when you lose. Your opponent's chance of hitting a set is 2*(47 choose 4)*5 / (48 choose 5) which is 2*5*48/4!5! which is precisely 1 in 6. Now you could resuck out on him and also hit your set, but the chance of that is 1 in 125(1/3) bringing the chance of him winning to 1 in 6.3 ... then there is a chance of a resuckout to quads and to both of you getting quads, but that's too silly to calculate. So you've got a 1 in 6.3 chance that your queens are good. What else has a 1 in 6 chance in this world? How about Russian Roulette? Your queens have a very good chance of winning against the 9's, but it is certainly not a totally unforseeable event if they lose. | ||
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