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Server Time: 10/11/2008 12:51:05 PM PACIFIC |
 I'm looking Flush, Oddly enough, PokerDude, 22. Jun 2003 00:20 | ||
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| If I am in a 10 handed hold em game and hold QJ suited.... what are the odds i will end with a flush? what are the odds someone at the table has two of the same suit with an Ace or King? If I have J 10 suited, what are the odds someone at the table has two cards of the same suit with Ace, King, Queen? thank you for your time. The new comedy central show "I'm with Busey" starring gary busey is scary... i never wanted to see him in drag and makeup | ||
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| Re: I'm looking Flush, Oddly enough, Roy Cooke, 23. Jun 2003 05:14 | ||
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| Hi PokerDude: My answers will be underneath the question! Roy Cooke on 22. Jun 2003 00:20 PokerDude wrote: > If I am in a 10 handed hold em game and hold QJ suited.... > > what are the odds i will end with a flush? Roy Cooke: The chances you will make a flush are about 6%. That assumes you will stay in to catch runner runner. > > what are the odds someone at the table has two of the same suit with an Ace or > King? Roy Cooke: When you hold the KingX of a suit, the chance that someone holds an Ax of that suit is around 6%. As you go down in ranking, the chance of someone holding the hand is slightly less as the combinations of cards is fewer. The chance of someone holding a Ax or Kx of a suit, when you hold two of a suit is just less than 12%. However, many players will not play suited card, so your chance of being beaten needs to be compared to the propensity of your opponents to play those cards (relate judgment call). > > If I have J 10 suited, what are the odds someone at the table has two cards of > the same suit with Ace, King, Queen? Roy Cooke: About 18%...But many players will not play many of those suited card combinations....So if you make a flush, 18% is not the chance it may lose. The chance of being beaten is why I do not value the suited connectors as highly as some poker experts in very loose games in which your opponents are playing any suited cards. I find I am drawing dead to the flush way too often and if any flush hits the board the propensity of my straight being good is reduced. > > thank you for your time. > > The new comedy central show "I'm with Busey" starring gary busey is scary... i > never wanted to see him in drag and makeup > | ||
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| Re: I'm looking Flush, Oddly enough, PokerDude, 23. Jun 2003 10:50 | ||
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| this may seem like a silly question, but if there are half the ppl at the table, would the chance be cut in half? | ||
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| Re: I'm looking Flush, Oddly enough, stdioh, 24. Jun 2003 10:20 | ||
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| Not really. They affect eachother too, since each player who doesn't get flush cards leaves more flush cards in the deck. It makes it very hard to do exactly without doing it exactly though cutting in half would be a reasonable way to approximate. | ||
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| Re: I'm looking Flush, Oddly enough, stdioh, 23. Jun 2003 10:39 | ||
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| It depends on how many people you are playing against, of course. How many at the table? How many have already folded? Assuming that 10 people get cards and that you get the JsQs then there are 11 spades remaining and there are 2 higher spades. You have another 18 cards dealt out from the remaining 50, so that there is are (50 choose 18) opponent hand combinations (this is a very very very big number). Now how many ways can you make KsXs or AsXs? There are 9 players who have 20 ways of making the hand each and another (48 choose 16) ways for the remaining cards to be distributed, meaning that there is a 1 in 22.5 chance that somebody will be dealt AX or KX of your suit (including AK of course). If somebody else has the flush draw, of course, it lowers your number of outs. Say that you have your JsQs and they have AsKs then your opponent only has 9 flush outs instead of 11. Thus his chance of hitting a flush drops to about 1in 40 or 2.5% from about 1 in 17 or 6% Thus you can be thankful that when you are holding a JQ flush there is about a one in 22 chance that somebody was dealt a bigger one. If they are, you are blessed with a reduced chance of making your flush to the tune of 2.5%, which is lessened still if you aren't chasing backdoor flush draws. | ||
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| Re: I'm looking Flush, Oddly enough, stdioh, 24. Jun 2003 10:23 | ||
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| I should point out another important concept and that is the redraw aspect of flushes. When you make a flush on the turn there is a chance of a 4-flush coming to the board and giving somebody with a lone flush card a better flush than yours. For this reason hands like JXs lose their value and become unplayable in most situations. Yes, you have just as much chance of hitting a flush as AXs in the same suit and yes, there is a small chance that there will be a bigger flush out there, but where you run into trouble is when there is a 4-flush and you're roped into paying a lot for the second best hand. The same goes for suited connectors, but the straight potential they have makes up for the 4-flush liability from which they suffer. | ||
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