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Server Time: 10/11/2008 12:59:46 PM PACIFIC |
 Odds Question, Big_Slick, 9. Jun 2003 21:57 | ||
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| Can someone please explain to me how the odds behind ANY Flop which includes an Ace or King can be 2:1 (32%). Since 4 Aces and 4 Kings make up only 15% of the cards, I'm confused by this stat. Thanks. | ||
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| Re: Odds Question, Mark, 9. Jun 2003 22:05 | ||
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| on 9. Jun 2003 21:57 Big_Slick wrote: > Can someone please explain to me how the odds behind ANY Flop which includes an > Ace or King can be 2:1 (32%). Since 4 Aces and 4 Kings make up only 15% of the > cards, I'm confused by this stat. > > Thanks. Aces and Kings make up 15% of the cards. If you were to only flop 1 card, there would be a 15% chance of that card being an A or K. If you flop 2 cards, you get 2 chances, improving the likely hood of flopping at least 1 Ace or King to 30%. With 3 cards its 45%. So, the odds are actually 1.2:1, not 2:1. mark | ||
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| Re: Odds Question, SendMoney, 9. Jun 2003 22:14 | ||
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| Basically if you have a hand such as AK, then there are 6 remaining Aces and Kings remaining in the deck. There are 50 cards that are unaccounted for and your odds of hitting 1 one on the first flop card would be say 6/50 = 12%, and if that missed then you'd have 6/49 for the second card = 12.24%, and if that missed then you'd have 6/48 for the third card = 12.5%. I'm not sure exactly how you break it down into a mathematical equation but I would believe that 3 seperate events that had a 12%-12.5% chance of occuring which occured simultaneously could add up to a 30% total. | ||
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| Re: Odds Question, Mark, 10. Jun 2003 08:19 | ||
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| i did the math without considering what hand i held. | ||
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| Re: Odds Question, PairTheBoard, 9. Jun 2003 23:18 | ||
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| The easy way to calculate this correctly is as follows: Assuming You hold A,K There is a 44/50 = 0.88 chance that No A,K comes first card. Given No A,K on the first card there is 43/49 = 0.878 chance that No A,K comes second card. Given No A,K first two cards there is 42/48 = 0.875 chance No A,K comes third card. So, the probabilty no A,K comes on the flop is the product .88*.878*.875 = 0.6757 and the chance an A,K does come is 1-.6757 = .3243 or about 32.4% Assuming my calculator did not slip that is. It's easy to see you can't just add probablities by flipping a coin a couple of times. Each flip has a 50% chance of flipping a head. But certainly there is not a 100% chance of flipping at least one head on two flips. | ||
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| Re: Odds Question, Roy Cooke, 10. Jun 2003 02:09 | ||
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| The odds of an Ace or King on the board is 32% ONLY when you hold AK. Roy Cooke on 9. Jun 2003 21:57 Big_Slick wrote: > Can someone please explain to me how the odds behind ANY Flop which includes an > Ace or King can be 2:1 (32%). Since 4 Aces and 4 Kings make up only 15% of the > cards, I'm confused by this stat. > > Thanks. | ||
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| Re: Odds Question, noiseboy, 10. Jun 2003 10:21 | ||
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| And if you hold QQ's or JJ's the odds are 100% of an A or K. :) | ||
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| Re: Odds Question, MozMan, 10. Jun 2003 11:18 | ||
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| on 10. Jun 2003 10:21 noiseboy wrote: > And if you hold QQ's or JJ's the odds are 100% of an A or K. :) At least, it certainly FEELS like it's 100% ! lol! -Moz "Leave the gun. Take the cannoli." | ||
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