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Server Time: 2/13/2012 1:48:05 AM PACIFIC |
 NL Tourny Hand, shorn, 9. Jun 2003 05:45 | ||
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| Trying to figure out if I made a bad move here. NL tourny on Party, blinds at 100/200, I have a little better than average stack (T3200). I am OTB with A2s, 3 limpers, I limp, SB folds, BB checks and we see the flop 5 handed. Flop comes 845 rainbow, giving me the gutter to the stupid end of the str8. Checked to me, Itake the freebie. Turn is the 3 giving me the wheel. BB bets $200 into $1100 pot. 1st two limpers fold, 3rd raises to $600. I think for a minute and decide that the chances are too great that the third limper is slowplaying 76 (and doesn't also have A2). I figure I have two options here...raise again or fold. Calling is out of the question as that would give the BB the chance to catch a miracle card for a str8 or potentially a boat. I decide that since I don't have the monster, that it would be better to save my chips and fold (this is where I expect your replies to focus). BB calls. River is a K, BB checks, limper bets $600, BB calls. Limper shows A2 for the wheel and wins a nice pot. Thought on whether or not I should have continued and did I miss anything in my analysis? Thanks. | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, Paul Stine, 9. Jun 2003 09:40 | ||
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| on 9. Jun 2003 05:45 shorn wrote: > Trying to figure out if I made a bad move here. > > NL tourny on Party, blinds at 100/200, I have a little better than average > stack (T3200). I am OTB with A2s, 3 limpers, I limp, SB folds, BB checks and we > see the flop 5 handed. Flop comes 845 rainbow, giving me the gutter to the > stupid end of the str8. Checked to me, Itake the freebie. Turn is the 3 giving > me the wheel. BB bets $200 into $1100 pot. 1st two limpers fold, 3rd raises to > $600. > > I think for a minute and decide that the chances are too great that the third > limper is slowplaying 76 (and doesn't also have A2). I figure I have two > options here...raise again or fold. Calling is out of the question as that > would give the BB the chance to catch a miracle card for a str8 or potentially a > boat. > > I decide that since I don't have the monster, that it would be better to save > my chips and fold (this is where I expect your replies to focus). BB calls. > River is a K, BB checks, limper bets $600, BB calls. Limper shows A2 for the > wheel and wins a nice pot. > > Thought on whether or not I should have continued and did I miss anything in my > analysis? Thanks. Seems to me that you did the right thing. In this situation you are probably hoping to split the pot at best and could easily be up against a better hand or a draw to a bigger hand. Even a 'redraw' to a six high straight will probably only chop. A lot of people will put all their chips into a pot in the hopes of just getting them back with a split pot. (Can anyone say ace kicker to two pair on the board?) Their idea is that they will win back any chips that they have already put in the pot. What they fail to consider is that they are risking the chips they still control. Any chips you have already put into the pot are out of your control. Calling to split a pot is a bad idea in a ring game and a disastrous idea in a tournament. The other player has the advantage of betting first in this case. Had the action been check around to you I would have made a bet big enough to discourage anybody with a standard draw (read half the pot bet.) Given that there was a bet *and* a raise I would have to abandon my hand here. You still have about 15 big blinds in your stack and are in no immediate danger from the blinds. You have plenty of time to find a good hand in a favorable position. Keep your eye on the prize. You can't win a tournament anything but the last hand, so you have to be there when that last hand is played. Paul Stine College Station, TX | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, shorn, 9. Jun 2003 09:43 | ||
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| Thanks Paul. I appreciate your analysis and insight on this. I am just getting started in tournaments and so far have improved my finish each time (still no cashes yet!). Glad to hear from a veteran tournament player (as I gather from your posts) that I made the logical call here. Steve | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, Risky Business, 9. Jun 2003 09:57 | ||
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| In my opinion, he's not in a situation where he "could easily be up against a better hand". He's open to a draw loss sure, but not a 7-6. Flop-a-nut-straight odds??? If he makes it expensive for others to see that last card, he might take the pot from the wheel...representing 7-6...and at worst, split it. That's why I asked what his opponents stack was....he could have taken some from him while pushing the hand. Big blind had high pair I suppose. Maybe 2 pair, but the wheel had that beat already. > Seems to me that you did the right thing. > > In this situation you are probably hoping to split the pot at best and could easily > be up against a better hand or a draw to a bigger hand. Even a 'redraw' to a six high > straight will probably only chop. > > A lot of people will put all their chips into a pot in the hopes of just getting > them back with a split pot. (Can anyone say ace kicker to two pair on the board?) > Their idea is that they will win back any chips that they have already put in the > pot. What they fail to consider is that they are risking the chips they still > control. Any chips you have already put into the pot are out of your control. > > Calling to split a pot is a bad idea in a ring game and a disastrous idea in a > tournament. > > The other player has the advantage of betting first in this case. Had the action > been check around to you I would have made a bet big enough to discourage anybody > with a standard draw (read half the pot bet.) > > Given that there was a bet *and* a raise I would have to abandon my hand here. You > still have about 15 big blinds in your stack and are in no immediate danger from the > blinds. You have plenty of time to find a good hand in a favorable position. > > Keep your eye on the prize. You can't win a tournament anything but the last hand, > so you have to be there when that last hand is played. > > Paul Stine > College Station, TX | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, Risky Business, 9. Jun 2003 09:51 | ||
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| I think you over-thought this. You were timid while holding a 5 card straight with 6 cards in play. I may lose also, but to better hands, not by giving away winners. 1. Size of the other stacks? Since you didn't state 'em, I'll assume not important. 2. I usually bet 4 to a straight (for potential winnings), but it seems you were afraid to get raised there. 3. This was a position FOLD. If you were ahead of this guy, and with the wheel, you would have bet, right? on 9. Jun 2003 05:45 shorn wrote: > Trying to figure out if I made a bad move here. > > NL tourny on Party, blinds at 100/200, I have a little better than average > stack (T3200). I am OTB with A2s, 3 limpers, I limp, SB folds, BB checks and we > see the flop 5 handed. Flop comes 845 rainbow, giving me the gutter to the > stupid end of the str8. Checked to me, Itake the freebie. Turn is the 3 giving > me the wheel. BB bets $200 into $1100 pot. 1st two limpers fold, 3rd raises to > $600. > > I think for a minute and decide that the chances are too great that the third > limper is slowplaying 76 (and doesn't also have A2). I figure I have two > options here...raise again or fold. Calling is out of the question as that > would give the BB the chance to catch a miracle card for a str8 or potentially a > boat. > > I decide that since I don't have the monster, that it would be better to save > my chips and fold (this is where I expect your replies to focus). BB calls. > River is a K, BB checks, limper bets $600, BB calls. Limper shows A2 for the > wheel and wins a nice pot. > > Thought on whether or not I should have continued and did I miss anything in my > analysis? Thanks. | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, shorn, 9. Jun 2003 09:56 | ||
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| on 9. Jun 2003 09:51 Risky Business wrote: > I think you over-thought this. You were timid while holding a 5 card straight with 6 > cards in play. I may lose also, but to better hands, not by giving away winners. > > 1. Size of the other stacks? Since you didn't state 'em, I'll assume not > important. > 2. I usually bet 4 to a straight (for potential winnings), but it seems you were > afraid to get raised there. > 3. This was a position FOLD. If you were ahead of this guy, and with the wheel, you > would have bet, right? All of the stacks were roughly the same, so I did not figure that to be a big issue. As far as betting 4 to a str8, I might give that a try with the outside draw, but not with a gutter to the low end. Given that I had observed both players as slightly looser than me, I thought it better to draw free than bet on a 4 out come hand. If I had been before the limper, there is no question I would have raised the BB bet. It was the combination of the bet and the raise that scared me off. | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, Andrew Wells, 9. Jun 2003 10:17 | ||
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| I think you missed the preflop fold, otherwise you did what you had to. If you could move all-in on the turn without risking getting called, then that's of course acceptable. I just don't know the stack situations. | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, shorn, 9. Jun 2003 11:25 | ||
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| I thought about that, whether anyone would say I should fold pre-flop. With 5-way action, can you explain to me why you wouldn't have taken a shot to flop a big hand here? My thoughts were since we were in a middle round, it was an opportunity to perhaps double through which would probably get me to the $$. But, I am curious to hear your thoughts on a pre-flop fold. Thanks in advance Andrew. Steve | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, Andrew Wells, 10. Jun 2003 05:09 | ||
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| You said it yourself, you were in the middle rounds of the tourney. It may look as though you will have implied odds to catch a big hand, but this is now negated by the relative value of the chips in play being worth much more than they were at the begining of the tourney. I generally refrain from playing these type of hands unless it is the first couple of levels, or the shorthanded end of a tournament. Otherwise it is enough to try to steal the blinds. You're investing 6% of your stack before the flop and then more if you flop a good draw where no one bets enough to take away your pot odds. It's too easy to then become committed for 30-50% of your stack on the flop or turn with a draw that gets there roughly 25% of the time. Try to anticipate the maximum size bets you would not fold for with say the nut draw on the flop, and then compare that to your stack size. If it looks like you would be drawing to more than 30% of your stack, I find it better to release the hand right away. If you have a huge stack or you are in the first two levels, it's not likely that figure will exceed 30%. At the tourney's end you of course have many more ways to win than just hitting a big hand, so it becomes worth raising against a short field. Also obviously with a short stack that would be crippled by the next set of blinds, it's a desparation all-in move when no one else has yet entered the pot. Let's look at this exact situation with your 3200. You can expect a pot of 1200 (allow for the small blind to call) on the flop, which you may catch enough of to continue for another 600. If there's 2400 in there by the turn, you could be expected to cover another 800. So with the 30% rule of thumb, that's 200+600+800 = 1600 = 50% of the original 3200. 50% > 30% so I choose not to play before the flop with that particular stack size. I realize this ignores those times you flop enough to push all-in, but this is compensated by those times you also lose to a redraw or miss the flop completely. The 30% rule works well for me, but if you are less risk averse you can adjust it up. I use this in multiway NL calling situations, it is not appropriate when you are going to raise or have a raising hand. By the way, I don't think this has ever been discussed in print or on this forum before. | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, shorn, 10. Jun 2003 05:44 | ||
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| Andrew- This is fantastic stuff. Exactly the type of analysis that I was looking for and something that I completely lack due to inexperience with NL tournaments. I am going to print this one out and study it until it is second nature. Thanks a million. One question though: how did you come up with the 600 and 800 figures on the flop and turn as the amounts that I would be "expected to cover"? To me, that appears to be critical information in making the pre-flop call. Also, if there were more than 4 limpers and you were OTB, would you ever consider calling with this hand or do you eliminate it in the middle rounds completely (unless, as you point out, you are a big stack)? I really appreciate your insight here. I am mostly a limit player, but have really become enamored with NL, especially tournament play so I am a sponge for information right now. Thanks again. Steve | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, Andrew Wells, 10. Jun 2003 15:38 | ||
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| Well I don't know what sized bet you would call with on the flop or turn, but these amounts are approximate upper bounds if I flop a nut draw (in your case hand the flush) without any extra values. A bet of 600 would be borderline into a 1200 pot for me to call with your A2s given that I flopped the flush draw. Assuming the bettor has a decent sized stack compared to mine, I don't know if I'm going to be facing a bet on the turn that I can continue with if I don't get there immediately. So these are estimates of the most a bettor could get me to play for on both the flop and turn. In the middle levels it doesn't matter if the whole field has limped and I'm on the button. Since this is no limit, I could easily be facing a bet on the flop I can't call even with a 12 out type hand. Try to decide before you put anything into the pot, how much of your stack you would be willing to risk on any particular hand. This isn't limit where the number of limpers can justify a call. | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, shorn, 11. Jun 2003 05:00 | ||
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| Andrew- Got it. Good point on the fact that the number of limpers doesn't necessarily justify a call in NL since at any point in time, my odds could be reduced to pot size:my stack. Thanks again. Steve | ||
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| Re: NL Tourny Hand, stdioh, 10. Jun 2003 11:26 | ||
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| You made the right move by dumping it. When there is a bet and a raise there, you've got a good chance of being beaten outright and a good chance of chopping. Don't put your head on the block for a shot at half the pot. | ||
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