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Server Time: 12/3/2008 12:21:10 PM PACIFIC |
 Should I have known better?, beigs, 6. Jun 2003 13:44 | ||
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| I have A-Jo on the big blind. The flop comes up 4-7-Q. I bet out to get rid of some players. All but one fold. The one is in middle position. Turn comes up another Queen. I check. Opponent checks. River is another Queen. I figured that my opponent would have bet out on the turn with two pair. So I bet hoping that my Ace kicker would win the pot. My opponent calls with 6-7s in their hand, winning with a full house. Should I have made the assumption that my opponent had flopped a pair of some form. I was assuming that they would play more aggressively on the turn with top 2 pair. Did I assume too much??? Thanks all, Beigs | ||
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| Re: Should I have known better?, shorn, 6. Jun 2003 13:48 | ||
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| I think you should have bet the turn again against one opponent. You represented a Queen on the flop and then when another Queen came, you slowed down. Yes, with a Queen in your hand you could have been trying for a checkraise, but unless he holds KK or AA, he isn't going to bet it for you. Once the third Queen fell on the river, there was no way he folds any pair, so you can't win at that point. This is one of those situations heads up where you must follow through on the turn with another bet because if your opponent held a Queen he would have raised the flop, so you can pretty much rule that out. I think that if you had bet the turn out of the gun, he would have mucked his pair. | ||
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| Re: Should I have known better?, MozMan, 6. Jun 2003 13:58 | ||
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| hmm... look at this one from your opponent's eyes: you bet out on the flop, so you are representing top pair... he's gotta be thinking you have a Q. Now the turn comes, he has 2 pair, but only one really counts. He's thinking you now have trips, he's not gonna bet... and is wondering why you didn't. He's thinking you are either weaker than he thought, or you are slow-playing the set. Now the last Q comes, and he has a boat. He's gonna make the call because a boat's a good hand and it is highly unlikely you've got quads; at least, unlikely enough to make his call worth it. As to you original question, he stayed in for some reason. Unless he's a total fish, you gotta figure him for at least a pair by the time the turn comes. Best thing to do would have been to bet out on the turn. Given his hand, he would have folded (maybe called, but I doubt it), making you for the set; but if he had a Q he would have raised and you would know to lay down right there. -Moz "Leave the gun. Take the cannoli." | ||
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| Re: Should I have known better?, stdioh, 6. Jun 2003 14:46 | ||
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| > I have A-Jo on the big blind. The flop comes up 4-7-Q. I bet out to get rid > of some players. All but one fold. The one is in middle position. Bad idea. You're out of position and you have only 1 overcard with no other draws. Chances are pretty good that there is a queen out there. Really you should be check-folding here. Turn comes > up another Queen. I check. Opponent checks. River is another Queen. I Now the turn is where you might be betting, since you bet the flop. You only had callers - nobody raised. So when the second queen comes you've got to represent a queen and try to take the pot - it is realistically your only chance of winning the hand. This would be an acceptable time to bet. By the river you have to realize that anybody with a hand that beats your ace will call your bet and nobody with a hand that doesn't beat you ace will call, so it is a *very* useless river bet to make - it can only lose you money. > figured that my opponent would have bet out on the turn with two pair. So I bet > hoping that my Ace kicker would win the pot. My opponent calls with 6-7s in > their hand, winning with a full house. If you're hoping that your ace kicker will win, why bet? Do you think somebody will call you with king high? > Should I have made the assumption that my opponent had flopped a pair of some > form. I was assuming that they would play more aggressively on the turn with > top 2 pair. Did I assume too much??? You didn't assume too much, but you assumed the wrong things. Assume that the people who call you on the flop are either slowplaying hands better than you are representing or are chasing. The way to win this is to bet the turn and see if you can fold them off. Waiting until the river is just bad poker in this particular situation. But I don't want to be too hard on you - just want you to see that you shouldn't bet a river when you are only going to be called by hands that beat you unless you are on a stone cold bluff. This is not a good place to make a bluff as it is very easy for 22 to call here. | ||
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| Re: Should I have known better?, psuasskicker, 6. Jun 2003 19:15 | ||
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| JMHO, but I wouldn't have bet that flop. Knowing that you did and you got a caller, I got a piece of advice from many people (including pros) that I've learned from experience is a very valuable lesson. DON'T BET THE RIVER IF YOU'LL GET BEATEN BY SOMEONE WHO CALLS YOU. This doesn't include an outright bluff. Bottom line, I think you should have checked down the river. You had no positive expected value on your bet. If he doesn't have anything solid, he'd just fold (unless he's a very bad player). If he's paired the board, he's going to call you and going to beat you. - C - | ||
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| Re: Should I have known better?, 4 POKER, 6. Jun 2003 20:39 | ||
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| Once the flop comes up with Q-7-4, you should have checked and then if you were faced with a bet you should have folded. There is no reason to try and bluff at this flop(especially given your poor position into an entire field). You had nothing invested in this hand and if you happened to have gotten a free pre-flop(which you did) and flopped something fairly strong with your hand like an Ace or if the board read J-7-4, then that as well would have been a good flop for you. And if I were holding AJ and the flop came up with either an A or a J, then I might've even gone for the check-raise play given my poor position as to just try and isolate with less players involed. Another thing that you have to think about if you're going to lead at this flop is, what card are you hoping to hit on the turn? What if you do hit the Ace now and it gives someone else two pair? That bet on the flop is not going to drive the whole field out even if someone is holding a small pair(players routinely call a flop bet if they have any piece of it whatsoever, especially at the lower limits). Understand to WHY you are making a flop bet so you won't be inclined now to bluff bet the turn and/or river as well. The errors that are made on the flop only turn out to be even more costly errors/mistakes throughout the rest of the hand. Bail out early when you can save those bets for a hand that does warrant a bet, you'll have better and more positive results overall. If you really think about your river bet for a moment, what hand can you possibly beat if you get called? Surely if your opponent has an Ace you would more than likely have him out-kicked, but then, why not just check and call if you think that you can induce a bet by your opponent. There's really no other hand that your opponent is going to call you with unless he has you beat-do you think that he would call your bet with King high or something even less than that...I doubt it. Every other holding that he might have would beat you, even a pair because that would now give him a full house-and if I were in his position, I would have called your bet as well. 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: Should I have known better?, Swagman, 6. Jun 2003 21:20 | ||
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| 'Bail out early when you can save those bets for a hand that does warrant a bet, you'll have better and more positive results overall. ' Good advice. ALthough seeing a sole queen is ripe for a stolen pot, why risk it? Good advise | ||
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| Re: Should I have known better?, PairTheBoard, 6. Jun 2003 22:55 | ||
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| I agree with those saying the bet out on the flop made little sense against a full field. Something to consider. A pair on the board is much scarier and makes for a much more believable bluff than trips on the board. If the third Queen had not come on the river he might have bought your represented slow play on the turn, depending on the player and your image. However the last queen really killed your move, not because it gave him a full house - what he really had was a pair - but because it made it so unlikely you held the case Queen. | ||
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| Re: Should I have known better?, beigs, 7. Jun 2003 08:33 | ||
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| Thanks for the feedback all. I'm still trying to get to the point where I can think about my decisions before the speed of the table forces me to make them. | ||
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