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Server Time: 12/3/2008 12:17:14 PM PACIFIC |
 Was this a bad fold?, mongi, 6. Jun 2003 11:49 | ||
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| I was playing in a 4-8 kill game. It was a kill pot and I raised from early position with pocket aces. Only the killer called me. I had never played against him before so my knowledge of him was limited. I had only played at the table for an hour and had not played many hands due to the junk I was being dealt. So I had a tight image. He seemed to be a tight aggressive player. When he bet he had something and when he raised he had the nuts. Once again, however, this is my observation in a little less than an hour of play. I heard the player to the right of me make a comment after he was raised by this player that " this guy doesn't bluff but I'll pay him off " only to be shown K T for the nut straight. Anyway, I bet the flop which came up 6 2 9 rainbow, he thought for just a second and then called. The next card is a 7, the board is still a rainbow. I bet 16 (remember it is a kill pot) and he raises me. My first thought is to fold, given the fact that I have seen this guy throw down nothing but winners. But then I think, well this is a heads up situation and he could be semibluffing with a straight draw on the board. Maybe he had something like 8 9 suited and picked up an open ended straight draw on the turn along with his top pair. But I think he would have raised with top pair or an overpair on the flop. I don't think he has a straight because I can't see him calling me on the flop heads up with just a gutshot. Two pair is possible in which case I have outs to beat him, however, my intuition tells me he slow played trips. Im thinking that when he paused for a moment before calling me on the flop he was contemplating raising at that time but chose to wait for the turn. He could just have a small pair or overcards and be praying that all I have is AK which I would lay down after being raised. I decide to go with my gut feeling and fold, realizing that if I call this bet then I must call the river as well since I am putting him on a semibluff. This would have been another 32 dollars. Had this been a multiway pot that had dwindled down to just us two I would have called just due to the pot size. As it was there was 96 dollars in the pot and I was getting 6-1 on my call. I later ran in to one of the other players at the game and he asked me what I layed down. I didn't tell him ( not a good idea to tell people your are willing to lay down a big pair when raised, they can use this info against you).He said that if I did have a big pair,I should have called. He had seen this guy bluff before. So what would you have done? Is this a catastrophic mistake or just a close decision. I think If it happened again like this I would call in lieu of not having complete information on the opponent. Thank you for your response and sorry for the long thread. | ||
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| Re: Was this a bad fold?, PairTheBoard, 6. Jun 2003 12:38 | ||
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| I may play too weak when getting raised on the turn. It's usually enough to convince me to fold, but I once had information relayed to me that one of the regulars I played against thought I was easy to beat by just raising me on the turn. I've been mulling this for about 10 years now away from the tables. Things to consider here. This guy is defending his kill and he's on a rush - I assume he killed it after winning a couple of pots or something. In that situation it's more like a heads up game with everyone else folding. You're essentially gambling $32 to win $96. Is there 1 chance in 4 that he would make this move to defend his kill? It would be a good move on his part with a number of hands. He's got to figure there's a good chance you just have high cards. Actually, the fact that you folded pocket Aces shows how powerful a move it is. I think you've got to look him up. If he's good enough to be playing tight and agressive you've got to give him credit for the ability to make this move. | ||
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| Re: Was this a bad fold?, PairTheBoard, 6. Jun 2003 22:29 | ||
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| I think you've got to expect a good tight agressive player to defend his blinds and really defend a kill that he's put in. When calling you before the flop, not only is he already halfway in with the kill, but he knows he will have position on you, the early raiser. Notice how much nicer the turn would be for you if you were playing behind him. I think he could easily be playing anyone of the following hands, AQ, KQ, AJ, A10, K10s, Q10s, J10s, JJ, 1010. When he hesitated on the flop he may have decided to raise the turn at that point, as a play back in case you had nothing but high cards that would beat his high cards. He knows a raise on the flop and bet on the turn is not as likely to get you out as the big move raising on the turn. His call on the flop might also have been to see if you bet on the turn, then with a 10 he picks up the gut shot draw and decides at that point to make the move on you. You might have also considered just checking on the turn, letting him blluff at it and calling him down. Being out of position really does hurt. Critiques of this analysis are more than welcome. | ||
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| Re: Was this a bad fold?, shorn, 6. Jun 2003 12:45 | ||
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| I think it was a bad fold. The board is extremely raggedy and if he had been paying attention to your play, he would have known that you didn't play a lot of hands, so that this particular board (in light of your pre-flop raise) probably didn't help you at all. You can't put him on the gutshot to call the flop (he was only getting 5.5 to 1), so he either has two overcards or an Ace with a 9, 6, or 2 suited. After you bet the turn, this is a great chance for him to see where you are. If you only have two overcards, you are likely to muck. And, you are twice as likely to have AK, AQ or AJ than AA, KK or QQ. I think this is a clear call and a call of a river bet too if only for the chance to see what he would do. I personally think i you had re-raised the turn, he would have mucked. Anyway, you could try that as well because the advantage is that you are still paying 32 but can win it right there and if you don't, he would likely check the river so it won't cost you anything more. If he has a set, then you lose a lot of chips but with this board, I think you played your AA to meekly. | ||
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| Re: Was this a bad fold?, mongi, 6. Jun 2003 13:16 | ||
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| I totally agree with you guys. Sometimes I am narrow minded and base my decisions specifically on the read I have on my opponent ( I put him on trips ), instead of looking at the situation and playing accordingly. thanks for your response. | ||
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| Re: Was this a bad fold?, TKarrde, 6. Jun 2003 13:28 | ||
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| This begs the general question... How much are you willing to pay for information? And is it quite possible that you would be more willing to do this at the beginning of a session as opposed to the end? TKarrde "You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never to get involved in a land war in Asia. And only slightly less well known is this: never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!" | ||
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| Re: Was this a bad fold?, shorn, 6. Jun 2003 13:44 | ||
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| I think in this case it is getting information with the best hand too. If you re-raise the turn and he pops you again, then you can throw it away. However, unless he has a set there is no way he will 4-bet the turn and you are likely to see the river for free anyway. So, you pay the same amount, but on the offchance he has an Ace with one of the other pairs, he may fold. This eliminates the chance of him hitting his two outer on the river to beat you if you simply call the raise on the turn instead of 3-betting. As I said before, if he has a set you are going to lose $32 here no matter what. I would rather force the issue on the turn then call and call again on the river which gives him that chance to outdraw you. | ||
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| Re: Was this a bad fold?, mongi, 6. Jun 2003 14:32 | ||
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| If I reraise in this situation and he raises me back I would still lose 32 more dollars and not be able to showdown my hand. I think the best play would be to call his raise then check the river. If he bets the river and I am beat I lose 32 dollars. If he bets and is bluffing or has a worse hand I gain 32 dollars. However, if I reraise him on the turn and he throw his hand away I only gain 16 dollars in that scenario. In other words, I am minimizing my losses if I am beat but maximizing my gains by letting him bet my hand for me. Yes there is a chance he may catch a card on the river but based on his probable holdings it is not likely. There is also a chance he may just check the river. | ||
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| Re: Was this a bad fold?, psuasskicker, 6. Jun 2003 19:03 | ||
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| You said it was a $4/$8 game...how do you lose $32 by calling his raise and check/calling his river bet??? - C - | ||
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| Re: Was this a bad fold?, shorn, 7. Jun 2003 07:07 | ||
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| I guess we agree to disagree here. I see your point, but the pot is large enough for you take it right there and not give him the chance to catch. Maybe it is just me, but I want to be the aggressor in pots that I am in and in this case with that board, I think it warrants it. Also, it gets you out of the guessing game on the river if you just call and then call again on the river. Plus, if he checks the river and you think you are good, you can bet again and if he calls, you win $32. I just don't think you can slow down to one checkraise on the turn with AA and that board. | ||
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| Re: Was this a bad fold?, 4 POKER, 7. Jun 2003 07:39 | ||
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| I think there are several ways to look at this situation. First, he was on the kill and could've been holding two medium cards and did not want to throw away his hand now because he already had money invested pre-flop. So it is possible that he had made two pair. But the way the hand went down, the pocket AA's said that this player had hesitated on the flop as if he flopped a set. Well in my experiences, if I flop a set, I do not hesitate at all-I either raise it quickly so the player is unsure as to what I have or I just simply smooth call with no hesitation whatsoever. Why would you hesitate if you are waiting until the turn to make your move? That doesn't fit right with me. If this player was as tight/solid as he had heard of him to be, than he wouldn't be hanging around calling to hit a gutshot either. I do think that if he was a solid and experienced type, than just maybe he was using the raise on the turn as either a semi-bluff with a pair and a straight draw or he was putting the other player on two big overcards, which is the more likely hand(twice as likely than holding a big pair in fact). I also think that this would have been a good time to see exactly what your opponent was capable of-was he solid and skillful enough to have bluffed you out of the pot, was he skillful enough to have used the strong check-raise play on a semi-bluff? That would have been the perfect opportunity for you to find out what type of player he was for yourself and for future information. Your hand was strong enough to get that important and valuable information. It is hard to muck AA, and players often get too attached to this holding, but that hand is more likely to be beat when there are several players involved and/or the board is extremely coordinated with higher straight cards like J-10-9 or K-J-10. That is when the two Aces are in more danger. I'm not going to get into whether he should have called the turn and then just called the river as well opposed to raising the turn as to try and win the pot, because if he was unsure as to whether or not this player had him beat, he may not have been able to realize at that moment what his best course of action could have been. But I definitely would have called- and I probably would have been more inclined to raise the turn, because the more likely hand is top pair with a good kicker or a draw. I think your hand warranted a call. If you say that this player was only tight than maybe you would have to consider other options. But you had heard that he was tight yet aggresive which tells me that he is capable of making strategic moves as well. And because you were only in this game for a very short period, you really don't know enough about his play except for what someone at the table had told you- and for me, I prefer to make those judgements for myself. Do I think that you made a bad fold? Not exactly, I mean it wasn't catastrophic or anything, I just feel that this was a good time for you to call so you could have at least gotten information on this guy to store and put into use for later confrontations. 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: Was this a bad fold?, psuasskicker, 6. Jun 2003 18:58 | ||
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| FWIW I think it was a bad fold. It depends a lot on the action before the flop, but the real question lies in what he might have had before the flop. If he's tight aggressive, what's he going to play with a raise pre-flop? Combine that with what he might have had that could have beat you... Straight: He's coming in pre-flop with 8-10? Doubt it. Semi-bluff draw: Good possibility he came in with suited connectors and hit a semi-bluff draw on the turn, depending on the action pre-flop. If he was in a middle or later position, called the action, and then you raised, he might have called. Trips: Possibly he was limping a bit with trips, but it's likely he had top trips as it's tough for a tight aggressive player to play small pairs against a raiser with little to no one else in the pot unless he already had a stake in it. Two pair: I don't know a tight aggressive player on this planet who will come in with even a 97, much less stay with it after that flop and a bet from the raiser. I can't imagine he was coming in with less. Bottom line: It's possible he had you beat with trips, but there's really nothing else he could have had that would beat you. It's likely that the raise was either a semi-bluff or an outright bluff. It's also possible that he had pocket Kings or Queens and limped in behind your raise not wanting to knock more people out. I think it's very likely that you had him beat on the turn, and would have thought about reraising him (assuming he really is a tight aggressive player). But at the very least, I'd have called, and check and called him at the end. You said you had 6 to 1 pot odds? Not quite right with $96 in the pot when you folded. If you call, and check and call his bet on the river, there's $120 in the pot and you had to pay another $16 for it. That's 7.5 to 1 odds. If he checks it down on the river, it's $104 with $8 to call which is even better, 13 to 1. Knowing you had at least 7.5 to 1 odds, and that it's likely the only thing he could have beat you with was if he flopped trips, and if he did, you still had outs to beat him, I would have called, and check and called the river. - C - | ||
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