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Server Time: 12/3/2008 6:24:32 PM PACIFIC |
 Intelligent, but innumerate..., stdioh, 5. Jun 2003 07:58 | ||
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| I want to share an experience from my session last night. I'm playing at the 10-20 and it's a real action game. I raise AJ in late position and win a big pot. Next hand I get AK, raise, don't hit, muck. Next hand I get the black queens, raise and 5 of us take the flop. Flop comes Qd9s4s - uncoordinated save the flush draw and I'm holding top set. Now I'm hoping for some action. Small blind leads, I raise and get two callers, he 3-bets, I cap, one caller and one folder. Now the turn is the Td and the folder (a big chaser) moans about woulda-hit-a-straight ... good. Again I cap with the SB whilst dragging along the other. River is a small diamond check, check, bet ... the SB folds his pocket 9's face up and I put in a crying call on the huge pot. The player coming along had 4d6d. Now this sounds like a regular bad beat story, but there is a point to it. The chaser in this case was drawing very very slim. The only way she could win was by hitting 2 diamonds without pairing the board. Thus her chance of hitting and being good for the backdoor flush was 1 in 43. That is to say that she was the equivalent of drawing to one out. Pocket 9's was also drawing to 1 out, a nine. Now what made this spectacular is that she wasn't a standard big fish. She just had no idea how bad the chase was. So normally she was playing decent starting cards and she was bellyaching like crazy when fish at the table were winning with starting hands like T6o. Lets go over her mistakes one by one. She cold calls a raise with 4d6d - well, lets say that she could get away with it, because if she hits her hand solidly, the very loose table will pay her off. To a raise it still should be folded, but lets let her get away with that. Now when the flop comes with 1 diamond and 1 4, she's got a 1 in 43 chance of making the flush without pairing the board. And she's drawing dead even if she hits running 4's. Normally I'm not one to educate the table, but I wanted to know why she would call all the way with this piece of cheese when it was obvious that both of us were on sets. She said, "I figured you two were juicing me, so I had to stay in." "Juicing?" I asked. "Yeah. You two were trying to push me out so I had to stay in." "But you have to pay so much," I said. "Why would you want to pay so much to draw when you know we're on big hands?" "Because if I hit," she said, "it'll be a big payday." Now here is where we come to the crux of the matter. She figures that it is ok for her to call many bets with negative implied odds (she knows it'll be capped on the turn) to have a chance of making her hand. But she is innumerate. So while she understand what to do when from experience in playing poker and could have a meaningful discussion about the game, there are places where she makes an ignorant justification and does something wrong. I find this sort of thing is common among 10-20 and even higher players. You'll find some player who has spent years playing, has read some strategy, and can shoot the breeze about poker, but they are mathematically illiterate - that is to say they are innumerate. They know they shouldn't chase with an underpair to try to hit a set, but they will chase a backdoor flush. They won't fold their top pair top kicker to three bets on the flop. The core concepts for these people are pieces of trivia to memorize, not theorems to deduce. So how can we profit from this? Well, I've been thinking it over and I've decided that if I know somebody to be innumerate, there will be certain mistakes they tend to make and I can watch for my opportunities to take advantage of these mistakes. So how do I find out if somebody is innumerate without educating them about poker? The answer lies in a book I've been reading called Innumeracy. It seems that innumerate people, aside from having massive failings in the understanding of probability, don't have the concept of size of big numbers down. Thus if you ask an innumerate person how many cigarettes are smoked in the country every year or how many cars there are in the country or how heavy the rocky mountain range is, you're liable to get a quick guess or a refusal to guess. If you ask a numerate person one of these questions, he might be wrong, but the wheels will turn as he takes the facts he knows, cogitates on them, and makes an educated guess. For example, if I said, "how many cars are there in Canada?" a numerate person might say, "There are about 30 million people and there is probably 1 car for every 3 people or so, including business cars, police cars, cars that dont' work, etc. 10 million?" An innumerate person would be more likely to say something like, "I don't know. A million? A hundred thousand?" ... a randomly guessed rounded off *big* number. So what I'm getting at is this. The most important aspect of poker is table selection - knowing when you're beating a game and by how much, and changing your table when you need to. Knowing the innumerates at your game will give you that knowledge to a higher degree than otherwise, and if you're having a friendly conversation, it should be relatively easy to get somebody to hazzard a guess at the number of cars in the country or the number of people who die in the world every year or whatever. Then when you see the innumerate fishing around, pounce. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate...( twodimes hand analyzer), chasepoker, 5. Jun 2003 08:49 | ||
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| Hello mate i ran through some of those figures that you talked about ( the 1in 43 shot ) on the http://www.twodimes.net/poker thing and it comes up with a winning percentage of 3.74 %. I know that your figures are probably right and i realise that the point of your post ( which was very intersesting - i still say you should write professionaly not just on here ! ) was not to demonstrate the possibilites of that hand winning, but i would just like to know how you calculated the 1 in 43. Did you manualy do it or did you use a enumerator ( if that is a word ) . Does anyone know why the figure on the twodimes thing was different is it because it only uses a simulation of hands ? Much help would be appreciated on this as i use this site for a lot of my workings on poker ! For anyone who has not used it, it is great for heads up / all in type scenarios perfect for NL ! | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate...( twodimes hand analyzer), stdioh, 5. Jun 2003 10:11 | ||
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| I did it manually according to the following: She needs 2 diamonds that do not pair the board. She is holding 2 diamonds and there are 2 nondiamonds on the board. I calculated that she has 7 outs, but upon further thinking, since she had the 4d she has 8 outs. 3 board cards and 6 hand cards are known leaving 43 cards to draw from, so my math was that she has a 7*6/(43*42) chance of winning. That's 42/1806 which is exactly 1/43 ... now seeing that she actually has 8 outs, she would have a 7*8/(43*42) which would be 1 in 32.25 chance - still peanuts. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate...( twodimes hand analyzer), shorn, 5. Jun 2003 10:42 | ||
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| I think she has 9 outs on the flop and 8 on the turn (she has 3 diamonds, leaving 10, and only 1 of the flop cards can come a diamond pairing the board since she holds the 4). That turns into 30.02 to 1, still a crappy draw. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate...( twodimes hand analyzer), stdioh, 5. Jun 2003 12:30 | ||
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| Oh! You're right. I was automatically thinking that there were 4 flush cards out, but of course there were only 3. So 9 then 8 is correct. That makes a 1 in 25 shot, which is still miserable odds, but far better then 1 in 43. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate...( twodimes hand analyzer), shorn, 5. Jun 2003 12:31 | ||
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| 1 in 30, right? | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate...( twodimes hand analyzer), stdioh, 5. Jun 2003 12:34 | ||
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| 72/1806 | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate...( twodimes hand analyzer), shorn, 5. Jun 2003 12:39 | ||
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| 72/2162? (9*8)/(47*46), no? | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate...( twodimes hand analyzer), stdioh, 5. Jun 2003 12:46 | ||
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| That depends on the information you have. I'm suggesting that we know 6 cards in peoples' hands so the 99 qq and 46 are known as well as the board's q94. True that if she doesn't know our hands she has fewer outs. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate...( twodimes hand analyzer), shorn, 5. Jun 2003 13:05 | ||
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| OK. I was starting to worry that I had been calculating incorrectly all these years!! I guess your point is that she should have known your cards based on the betting patterns. Thanks. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., SKinner, 5. Jun 2003 09:39 | ||
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| This was an interesting read. I find it interesting that you said she was NOT a fish. Ever since I have started researching the game of poker, the thing that has continually struck me is the mathematics of it. My mom keeps saying, "be careful with the gambling." I always say, "Mom, it's not gambling. It's really just math." My point is that probability is at the very basis of most (all?) poker decisions. How could she not be a fish? Could you perhaps expand on that idea? Good post, as usual. –SKinner | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., stdioh, 5. Jun 2003 10:15 | ||
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| What I mean is that she is not throwing her money away. I suspect that tilt got her into the hand in the first place and ignorant math kept her in. If I had to pigeonhole her, I would say that she was a ricoculously bad fish 8 or 10 years ago and has been putting in lots of time and slowly getting better. She never learned the math but she eventually learned what not to do in common situations - most likely from having other players berate and educate her. Thus she has learned decent starting hands, more or less, and has learned roughly when to bet a river. An analogy would be teaching a foreigner some useful phrases in a new language. Lets say I were to go to China. I could ask where the bathroom is, introduce myself by name, and ask for a pack of cigarettes. That doesn't mean that I would be speaking Chinese - just that I know a few phrases. Likewise this woman knows an aweful lot of "phrases" in the "language" of poker, but she isn't by any stretch fluent in it or familiar with its nuances. Where a fish is a FOB tourist, she's more of a poker ex-pat. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., noiseboy, 5. Jun 2003 10:52 | ||
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| UGH, that whole "Poker is gambling" thing that you get from people that do not understand that poker is a long term game of skill, drives me f'ing crazy. There are several people in my life that are like "I'm worried you might be addicted to gambling", it's so incredibly annoying and stupid. I try to explain that I'm a winning player, and they are like "but you won't ALWAYS win", and I'm like well duh, of course I won't win every time I go play poker, but in the long term, as long as I play with weaker players, I will most certainly win. It doesn't seem to matter what I say about the skill involved, or how much I win, some people will never understand the difference between poker and slot machines. BTW, I would NEVER gamble, as a poker player, I only like to put my money in with the best of it. Slots, roulette, craps, Blackjack unless you can count cards, are all for suckers, and my sincerest hope is that all the people that play those games will come to my poker table and put their money in with the worst of it. Anyway, sorry for the rant, but your post about how some people accuse you of "Gambling" sorta brought up a sore spot for me. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., MozMan, 5. Jun 2003 11:19 | ||
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| You reading my mind? -Moz "There is no spoon." | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., Wren, 5. Jun 2003 11:57 | ||
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| Heh. I always love it when some guy sits down at my table, clutching a small handful of green and red chips and looking rather unsure. He is undoubtedly a paigow, caribbean or 3-card player, looking to "get lucky" at a new type of poker. :) | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., stdioh, 5. Jun 2003 12:36 | ||
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| It's the guy that comes over with 2 black cheques, 7 green cheques, and 5 red cheques that I relish. Definitely headed over from carribean stud. There are smart people who play Pai Gow for entertainment because if you play it optimally you don't lose much - like playing basic strategy at blackjack. The carribean players, by definition, are mathematically blind and deaf. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., Wren, 5. Jun 2003 12:49 | ||
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| Which is why I find it strange and amusing that guys like Shaggy occasionally play CStud. If he's innumerate, than he must be friggin' psychic. :O) | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., stdioh, 6. Jun 2003 08:49 | ||
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| Honey! You just used "than" instead of "then" ... that's the sort of thing JediPimp does ... I expect better from you ... I'm sure it was just a slip of the fingers though. And Shampoo (Shaggy) is a solid player. I think he just likes to play Carribean for fun as a gamble, much like you might throw $5 into a nickel slot. Seeing as he plays the 50-100 hold'em, he can probably afford to piss a little away at C.S. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., Mark, 6. Jun 2003 08:59 | ||
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| Why would anyone play Carribean Stud, the house has such a big advantage it impossible to win in the long run. Mark | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., 4 POKER, 6. Jun 2003 09:13 | ||
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| Very true indeed but I know someone who played the game only once and hit the jackpot for over 80K and has never played it again! (but I think Stdioh was talking about a player who can afford to play the game once in awhile and it's ok to do so if it is done using your head and to not bet over it). I do not advocate for anyone to gamble in the casinos' but there are some intelligent people out there who are able to just play once in a blue moon and will never put themselves in a jeapordy situation. For me, I find it all to be boring and I feel that I work too hard at what I do to just gamble it away in the pit at a CS table or any other game for that matter, but those are just my views on the matter. 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., stdioh, 6. Jun 2003 09:15 | ||
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| I'll sometimes play $1 roulette, since I'm only throwing away about $0.02 per spin ... I see it is buying entertainment if I forgot my book and am at the casino alone and am waiting for a table. AND if I'm at a casino that has all their blackjack out of continuous shuffling machines. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., stdioh, 6. Jun 2003 09:14 | ||
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| Because they want to gamble and blow off some steam? Lots of people will play -EV games for fun. Hell, if I were a regular 50-100 player, I could see sitting at Carribean for 10 minutes to blow off some steam. And technically, carribean stud can be plus ev, but you need a royal jackpot of about $240,000. I've never seen it get that high. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., Big_Slick, 5. Jun 2003 11:58 | ||
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| Sounds like a Poker Pet Peeve!! I agree. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., stdioh, 5. Jun 2003 12:33 | ||
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| I get that a lot from innumerate people. They are conditioned to believe that if you gamble in a casino then only the house wins in the long run. This is true if you are playing roulette or pai gow or sic bo, but if you are a counter playing blackjack or a winning poker player, it is a total falacy. These ignorant people have come around with respect to blackjack - I think it was Rain Man. You can tell your mother that you are counting cards and winning at blackjack and she'll say something like, "Well you always were good with numbers." Poker, it seems, isn't there yet. Maybe the televisation will help. I can't stand it if I say, "I'm making $30 per hour at this game," only to hear, "You should quit while you're ahead. If you keep playing, they will GET IT ALL in the end. That's how casinos stay in business, don't you know? Ethel's sister married a guy who lost everything because he kept going to the casino and gambling it away. I am so worried that you're going to get sucked in. Blah blah blah blah." | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., noiseboy, 5. Jun 2003 12:58 | ||
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| blah blah blah blah, it just keeps going on and on. you'll lose all your money, etc... I made the mistake of telling my parents I won a couple grand in tournaments. I should no better than to tell my parents stuff like that, but I just temporarily forgot about the poker=gambling mentality that most people have. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., noiseboy, 5. Jun 2003 12:59 | ||
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| I mean i should "know" better. Damn, I need to wake up today. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., flintsword, 7. Jun 2003 09:22 | ||
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| LOL, oh well noiseboy, telling your parents is not a new problem. Want to compare your situation to a world class player? Here is a link to Daniel Negreanu's article called "Well, Mom, I'm a Professional Poker Player": http://www.cardplayer.com/?sec=afeature&art_id=199 Hope you enjoy it and relate to it. Relate to it so well you become as good as Negreanu! flintsword | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., Snorbolus, 5. Jun 2003 13:48 | ||
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| I have never understood the point of the whole "is poker gambling?" debate. Why does it matter? Even if I was a loosing player (I like to believe that I am not), as long as I am enjoying myself and can afford any money that I loose where is the harm? I also enjoy sailing but nobody ever comes up to me and says "Oh no it terrible. You are bound to become addicted. All your money will end up in the chandlery, and what if you get lost at sea?" It would be plain silly if they did. Snorbolus | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., MozMan, 5. Jun 2003 13:53 | ||
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| When I first started to play, a good friend gave me that old "Oh, be careful!" speech, and I said to her, "If I was talking about bowling, would you say that? When I started to learn to fly, you had no problem with that, and it cost me A LOT more than poker." Now I use that logic with everyone... I don't see conversion in their eyes, but at least the lectures have stopped. -Moz "There is no spoon." | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., stdioh, 6. Jun 2003 08:50 | ||
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| That's funny. Sailing is a -EV game :) | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., gary ford, 5. Jun 2003 13:53 | ||
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| studioh--i hope you're as nice as you are smart and the same for the lovely Wren ( you're quote ). You can get married and raise a family of poker prodigies. This is your best post yet. Our success as excellent players, distinguishable from other excellent players, will lie with our intellect and analytical abilities. The ability to learn rapidly that is being offered by the internet, the tour and by posts here on UPF, will result in a select few separating themselves from the conventional poker community. What took the Texas rounders 20 years to learn can now be learned in 3. The current raise/fold fad--- probably to be replaced by a trapping fad to then be followed by,,,,,,,,and on and on. The " secret society " of poker has been broken wide open by TV exposure and bright ,young players. Times change. | ||
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| Re: Intelligent, but innumerate..., stdioh, 6. Jun 2003 08:52 | ||
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| Thanks a lot, Gary. That's high praise indeed. And yes, I hope to raise a large brood of poker prodigies with the lovely wren, but I'm going to encourage all six of them (she'll come around) to have day jobs primarilly and play poker on the side. And maybe some day I'll make the big time, but for now I'm content to go on the odd evening or early morning, scrape out my little advantage, and have fun. | ||
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