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Server Time: 3/15/2010 9:22:23 PM PACIFIC |
 Trips over trips over trips in draw poker, Don Quixote, 1. Jun 2003 08:23 | ||
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| Home game last night $4 limit, with progressive limits. Two rounds produced no openers (jacks or better). Eight players. Third round with $1 ante made a $23 ($1 rake) pot to start. Limit is now at $8 to open and $16 after the draw. UTG opens for $8, one caller to me and I have trip queens. I raise $8. Both call. They both draw two cards. Can't keep a kicker now I reason. Opener bets $1 (no check and raise this game), other guy calls, and I raise $16 after looking at two rags. Both call. Opener turns over trip kings, caller turns over trip jacks. My queens lose. Should I have raised after the draw? I wasn't too worried that anyone had improved or that anyone started with higher trips. Maybe I should start worrying more, but I as some poker pundit said "there's not a monster under every bed." Don Quixote | ||
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| Re: Trips over trips over trips in draw poker, Paul Stine, 1. Jun 2003 12:38 | ||
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| on 1. Jun 2003 08:23 Don Quixote wrote: > Home game last night $4 limit, with progressive limits. Two rounds produced no > openers (jacks or better). Eight players. Third round with $1 ante made a $23 > ($1 rake) pot to start. Limit is now at $8 to open and $16 after the draw. UTG > opens for $8, one caller to me and I have trip queens. I raise $8. Both > call. > > They both draw two cards. Can't keep a kicker now I reason. Opener bets $1 > (no check and raise this game), other guy calls, and I raise $16 after looking > at two rags. Both call. Opener turns over trip kings, caller turns over trip > jacks. My queens lose. > > Should I have raised after the draw? I wasn't too worried that anyone had > improved or that anyone started with higher trips. Maybe I should start > worrying more, but I as some poker pundit said "there's not a monster under > every bed." > > Don Quixote Since no one else can have three queens if you do, why would you worry about a kicker? You aren't going to make your hand worse by drawing, you can only improve or stay the same. You want to draw two here. If you draw one (keeping a 'kicker'), you have 4 chances to make a full house or better (3 cards to pair and 1 card to quad) on one cards out of 47 unseen cards in the deck. So you are 43:4 or about 11:1 to improve. If you draw two you can catch Qx or any pair (except QQ) to improve. The odds against this are about (I'm just shotgunning this I haven't done all the math) about about 8:1. With regard to the post-draw betting: I don't know the players or the texture of this game , but this is almost certainly one of those situations where you are only going to get called if you are beaten (and you were.) I'm kinda surprised the middle player didn't have the best hand ... it is usually the quiet ones. Paul Stine College Station, TX | ||
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| kickers in draw, stdioh, 2. Jun 2003 11:34 | ||
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| It is a fundamental mistake that many players make that if you are holding XXAYZ and drawing that it is a good idea to always keep the A and draw two. If you have 22AYZ that can *often* be a good thing since hitting a single ace gives you a decent holding with a shot at winning and hitting nothing gives you no chance at winning. Hitting a weak 2 pair gives you very little chance at winning the hand. Now if you're holding QQAYZ why would you keep the ace? First of all, the chance of an opponent having AA is reduced by your having an ace so you're most afraid of KK. In that case, hitting aces up could save you if your opponent makes kings up. Nonetheless, if you are both unimproved, you get roasted. You're much more interested in hitting your trips than you are in hitting your ace. If you get three cards, you have the same chance of making 2 pair as if you keep your ace, but your chance of making trips goes down significantly. So look at the tradeoff: You chuck the ace the worst thing that can happen is that your opponent who is holding KK draws kings up and you draw queens up with an ace and lose - had you kept your king you would have drawn aces up. Now look at the other ways this can go. You take 3 cards and get a queen beating kings up. You draw 3 cards, get 2 pair and beat unimproved KK. You were winning all the way and your queens up beats a lower 2 pair. You were winning all the way and your queens hold up unimproved. So where do you keep your kicker? Lets say that you have an opponent who opens (JJ or better) and gets a caller plus you. The opener takes 3 cards and the caller takes 1 card. Now you can assume that the opener has a pair JJ QQ KK or AA and that the caller is on a draw, most likely up/down or a flush draw. You are holding JJA5Q - rainbow. So the straight draw doesn't look as scary as it could, and you are drawing to aces up for a sure fire win. Your opponent almost certainly doesn't have JJ and if he does, you've taken all of his outs and your kicker is good. Most likely he's got KK with a small chace of AA or QQ. Now you draw 2 cards since you know that you are good if you hit your ace and your opponent doesn't improve to trips and the draw doesn't get there. Thus you have 2 cards with 5 outs to a really good hand and you still could make jacks up and have a chance of being good if the bettor doesn't improve. If you take 3 cards then you have a slightly better chance of trips, your chance of jacks up just eats into your chance of aces up, and you're much worse off. But to make a long story short when you have two opponents each taking 2 cards, your queens are probably not good when they make queens up and probably equally lousy when they make aces up, so pitch your kicker and look to make trips or full. And as you saw, your trip queens won't always win either in that situation. You could well be drawing dead to KKK or AAA. | ||
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| Re: kickers in draw, stdioh, 2. Jun 2003 11:37 | ||
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| I should point out that you shouldn't have any business being in a pot with 22AYZ, so don't take my last post as an endorsement of that hand. | ||
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