UPF - Hand

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Hand, Schuster, 22. May 2003 19:05
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I'm UTG in a full 2/4 table, planning this for be the last hand of my night, and assuming I'll be dealt some random trash and go out uneventfully. The cards are dealt out and I have KK. I raise, and an overly aggressive MP player makes it 3 bets. The cutoff calls, I make it 4 bets, the cutoff and MP both call. Flop is K T J rainbow. Not exactly the flop I was looking for, but I'll take it. I bet out and MP raises. The cutoff calls, and I reraise, and MP caps it at 4. At this point, I figure I'm drawing to the full house (not something I like when I flop top set). When the turn is a queen, I curse a few times, and check. Sure enough, MP bets and the cutoff calls. I know they both have aces, but I'll see if I can't tighten up. I call. River is a blank, MP bets, cutoff calls, and I toss my beautiful kings into the muck. MP had AK and the cutoff had AQ (slowplayed the flopped straight). My question wasn't really about my play (I think I did everything right, but correct me if I'm wrong), but the play other players. First, if I'm playing in a small field and first to act on every betting round, I'm not going to make it 4 bets before the flop with anything except AA and KK. I was also under the impression that this was normal. If I was in MP's shoes, the reraise on the flop would have sent bells and whistles flying through my head. He had top top with a gutshot draw and he's in the face of 4 bets preflop and 3 on the flop? Hmm... Also, why would the cutoff slowplay the nuts on the turn? I think I would have figured the player in my position for either AA or KK. If I raise against AA, then I lose nothing, but if I don't, I give him better odds to draw to the full. No? Thanks for the help. Lee
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Re: Hand, Big_Slick, 22. May 2003 21:54
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Lee, this is harsh so if you don't like criticism, please do not read the post. *My question wasn't really about my play (I think* I did everything right, but correct me if I'm wrong), but the play other players. Don't be so concerned with their play because you played this hand horrifically. I raise, and an overly aggressive MP player makes it 3 bets. The cutoff calls, I make it 4 bets, the cutoff and MP both call. Looks to me like you were being the aggressive one. Not only did you raise, you made it 4 to go. Since you were first to bet, it wouldn't have been a bad idea to have just called and waited to see how the hand developed. This is especially true since this was going to be your last hand. Flop is K T J rainbow. Not exactly the flop I was looking for, but I'll take it** This is where you fold, smile and wish everyone a good night. If you hadn't pushed the 4 bets pre-flop, it would have been a lot easier to let the kings go. Now you find yourself married to them come hell or high water. You're gonna take it alright... right in the ass. You need to realize that this is not a good position to be in. You even said yourself that you figured both opponents for aces. Then what the heck are you doing trying to catch a full house? The cutoff calls, and I reraise, and MP caps it at 4. At this point, I figure I'm drawing to the full house (not something I like when I flop top set). Then what the heck are you doing in the hand? Not only are you still in a hand you have no business being in, but you fire in a raise on top of it! Listen to your inner voice... it was trying to tell you something. First, if I'm playing in a small field and first to act on every betting round, I'm not going to make it 4 bets before the flop with anything except AA and KK. Why are you expecting these players to understand or respect your pre-flop play? This is 2/4 table not the World Poker Tour. I was also under the impression that this was normal. What I consider normal is realizing (after the 3rd or 4th raise pre-flop) that maybe... just maybe you are up against A-A. This means you are not a favorite to win. I really don't know what you were expecting from the other players. If I was in MP's shoes, the reraise on the flop would have sent bells and whistles flying through my head What was going through your head? You already know what you have -- don't worry about that... it's easy to play your own cards. You needed to be in his shoes playing his cards. Hmm... Hmm.... When the turn is a queen, I curse a few times, and check. First of all, you should have realized your bad luck after the second or third raise pre-flop. That being said, you are realizing it now but still stay in the hand?? Sure enough, MP bets and the cutoff calls. I know they both have aces, but I'll see if I can't tighten up. I call. I think it's a little late to "tighten up." River is a blank, MP bets, cutoff calls, and I toss my beautiful kings into the muck. Better late than never I guess. Also, why would the cutoff slowplay the nuts on the turn? Hello!!!! He had kamikaze king firing in so much money, he didn't need to slow play. You never gave him a chance to slow play. What would have happened if he had raised? You would have just raised him again anyways. He actually saved you money. The bottom line is this... you probably should have never seen the flop. You definitely should have folded after the flop. That simple. One hand like that per month and your profits are gone. You need to acknowledge when you are beat. You need to acknowledge that even if you're not beat, you might be better off choosing another battle another time. I know this was harsh, but you were looking for opinions. And you know what they say about opinions, right?
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Re: Hand, stdioh, 23. May 2003 10:42
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> Lee, this is harsh so if you don't like criticism, please do not read the post. Now, in the same vein, I have some harsh critisism for you, but not personal. I wrote a very long response that got blinked out when the microwave, coffee pot, and fridge compressor were running at the same time and the co-op student plugged in the soldering iron. I'll be a little more terse, but just as harsh here. > Don't be so concerned with their play because you played this hand horrifically. I don't think that this hand was played optimally, but it certainly wasn't played badly. I likely would have lost one or 2 bets less is all. > Looks to me like you were being the aggressive one. Not only did you raise, you made > it 4 to go. Since you were first to bet, it wouldn't have been a bad idea to have > just called and waited to see how the hand developed. This is especially true since > this was going to be your last hand. The three bet from the maniac must be regarded as a call, not a three bet. Thus the cold call from the other player can be given the same amount of respect as a call to 2 bets would be. Thus the cap isn't bad. There is good value in it with kings. If anything you should be picking on his being completely out of position, but I still think that either a call or a cap would be reasonable depending on style and image. > This is where you fold, smile and wish everyone a good night. If you hadn't pushed > the 4 bets pre-flop, it would have been a lot easier to let the kings go. Now you > find yourself married to them come hell or high water. You're gonna take it > alright... right in the ass. No no no no no! You never fold here. You have top set with a huge pot. There's a decent chance that you are good right now and even if you know that you are beat you have a 1/3 chance of making a tight, giving you pot odds to call any bets. Since you want to fold people off of gutshots very badly here, betting out or checkraising are the only options. Since you're not going to fold the maniac, the correct thing to do is bet out and hope that the maniac raises and the third player folds a draw that he may have. > You need to realize that this is not a good position to be in. You even said > yourself that you figured both opponents for aces. Then what the heck are you > doing trying to catch a full house? Trying to win the hand of course. > The cutoff calls, and I reraise, and MP caps it at 4. At this point, I figure > I'm drawing to the full house (not something I like when I flop top set). ok...now reraising on the flop here is a bad idea. > Then what the heck are you doing in the hand? Not only are you still in a hand you > have no business being in, but you fire in a raise on top of it! Listen to your inner > voice... it was trying to tell you something. The inner voice was saying, "You have pot odds to draw to a tight. If you fold you are a dumbbunny." - at least that is what my inner voice would be saying to me. > Why are you expecting these players to understand or respect your pre-flop play? > This is 2/4 table not the World Poker Tour. Not that is a good point you make. Never expect bad players not to do unintelligent things. The number of times I've busted because somebody called a pot sized bet on the flop and another pot sized bet on the turn, only to river a gutshot. > I was also under the impression that this was normal. > What I consider normal is realizing (after the 3rd or 4th raise pre-flop) that > maybe... just maybe you are up against A-A. This means you are not a favorite to win. > I really don't know what you were expecting from the other players. AA is a big dog to KK on a board of TJK. > What was going through your head? You already know what you have -- don't worry > about that... it's easy to play your own cards. You needed to be in his shoes playing > his cards. I think the important thing here is that it was stated that this guy is a maniac. Maniacs do not think about your cards, only their own. Obviously he has a pair or better. Maniacs get good cards sometimes too...why are you so sure that he isn't on a made straight? > Hmm... > Hmm.... Hmm... > First of all, you should have realized your bad luck after the second or third raise > pre-flop. That being said, you are realizing it now but still stay in the > hand?? Preflop he had the best hand. On the flop he had odds to draw to any amount of betting. He can still draw after the queen comes. It means that he definitely doesn't win without hitting his hand, but he's got 10 outs to the second nuts (and if anybody made quads with the board pairing that is something rare enough to be worth bitching about). > Sure enough, MP bets and the cutoff calls. I know they both have aces, but I'll > see if I can't tighten up. I call. > I think it's a little late to "tighten up." You're joking that he is loose, but he isn't being too loose here - just too agressive...much better to be too agressive than too weak. Folding this hand early would be catastrophic in terms of expectation. He's got 10 outs to a tight and there is an enormous pot in front of him. He must call. > River is a blank, MP bets, cutoff calls, and I toss my beautiful kings into the > muck. > Better late than never I guess. That was the only correct time to fold those cards during the hand. > Also, why would the cutoff slowplay the nuts on the turn? > Hello!!!! He had kamikaze king firing in so much money, he didn't need to slow play. > You never gave him a chance to slow play. What would have happened if he had raised? > You would have just raised him again anyways. He actually saved you money. Your analysis is really off here. He did slowplay and the reason was this. He didn't expect you to have a set or the correct play would be to try to make it incorrect for you to call by increasing the money while also giving himself more value. He figured you for something more vulnerable and probably figured you were on a pair and a gutshot. Then you would have only 4 outs to chop with him, so he's not in any danger by letting you peal one off and then putting in more money on a more expensive street. I would have slowplayed that there too. Any time you have the nuts and call you are slowplaying. Unless you are playing Omaha and you suspect that your opponent is a favourite to win with his drawing hand, there's a low hand, etc, etc. You're playing stud and suspect your opponent has an amazing drawing first 4 cards yada yada. > The bottom line is this... you probably should have never seen the flop. You > definitely should have folded after the flop. That simple. One hand like that per > month and your profits are gone. You need to acknowledge when you are beat. You need > to acknowledge that even if you're not beat, you might be better off choosing another > battle another time. No! One hand per month where you flop KJT while holding pocket kings with massive money in the pot that you fold costs you hours upon hours of expectation. Especially when the action is 3 handed. Assuming that there is already a made straight out there, you still have a 1/3 chance of winning a pot that has already got over 6 big bets in it. Plus you've just bet out rightly and been raised once and had that called. So on the flop when it comes back to you, the pot has almost 9 big bets in it and you are being asked to put in 1 with 2:1 against you making your hand. > I know this was harsh, but you were looking for opinions. And you know what they say > about opinions, right? Well, here's my opinion to go along side that one. I think that you most of the moves made were the right moves, but that they were made for the wrong reasons.
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Re: Hand, Big_Slick, 23. May 2003 11:41
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stdioh, you made some good points.
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Re: Hand, stdioh, 26. May 2003 07:56
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Thanks.
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Re: Hand, Schuster, 23. May 2003 10:59
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> Lee, this is harsh so if you don't like criticism, please do not read the post. I'm here to become a better poker player, not to grow my ego. I appreciate the thoughts =) > I raise, and an overly aggressive MP player makes it 3 bets. The cutoff calls, I > make it 4 bets, the cutoff and MP both call. > Looks to me like you were being the aggressive one. Not only did you raise, you made > it 4 to go. Since you were first to bet, it wouldn't have been a bad idea to have > just called and waited to see how the hand developed. This is especially true since > this was going to be your last hand. I can see the merit in this. Against unsophisticated opponents, I like to get the money in before the flop for value though. I probably should have just called. > You need to realize that this is not a good position to be in. You even said > yourself that you figured both opponents for aces. Then what the heck are you > doing trying to catch a full house? An ace alone at this point isn't scary. It's only a gutshot draw. I figured MP for a king with good kicker, two pair, or a smaller set, and I figured the cutoff had a queen and was drawing. I didn't think MP had me beat. I reraised to see where I was at and also because I thought I had the better hand. > When the turn is a queen, I curse a few times, and check. > First of all, you should have realized your bad luck after the second or third raise > pre-flop. That being said, you are realizing it now but still stay in the > hand?? Preflop, I raised, MP reraised, cutoff called, and I capped it. It's kinda hard to put someone on AA and only AA just because they made it 3 bets. I did consider the possibility, in fact I hoped MP had AA on the flop. The turn changed that a bit. > Also, why would the cutoff slowplay the nuts on the turn? > Hello!!!! He had kamikaze king firing in so much money, he didn't need to slow play. > You never gave him a chance to slow play. What would have happened if he had raised? On the turn, the MP bet, and the cutoff just called (with the nuts), no raise. > You would have just raised him again anyways. He actually saved you money. I would not have raised my set into a T J Q K board. > The bottom line is this... you probably should have never seen the flop. I can see where you're coming from in all the points you made except this one. Folding KK preflop? I'm not so sure. Even if I knew that either the cutoff or the MP had AA, then when it gets back to me, there's already 9.5 small bets in the pot and it costs me 1 to call. I'll pay 9 to 1 to see if I flop a set any day of the week. Lee
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Re: Hand, Andrew Wells, 23. May 2003 04:30
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You have two opponents that didn't mind puting in three bets before the flop let alone four. Now the flop comes all big and you have top set, yet you still get raised and cold called. Here is the point where you can be sure the flop helped everyone. Since there's no immediate flush draw possible, your concern is obviously someone with AQ. Slow down here and just call. There are really only a few combinations of hands where you are still in the lead. Maybe AA and JTs, JJ and KQs, or AA and TT etc., but there are 12 different AQ hands available. It is probably 60 to 70% likely that at least one of them has that AQ given the action to this point. Now the queen hits on the turn and you know you are beat. If you just called the raise on the flop, there would be a bit less than 10 big bets in the pot. You're around 4:1 to fill up or quad (catching an ace to a three way split is a wash), considering none of these outs may be in another hand. I'm also assuming the queen on the turn can't give someone a redraw to a one card royal. You don't figure at this point to get to the river cheaply, so your odds are going to be 18:4 to see the river. Let's assume you get called in one spot if you fill, so 19:4 implied. That would seem to be enough to get to the river provided all your outs are live. Most likely two of your ten outs to win outright are in someone's hand, and if either player has an underset you have only seven. In that case if it gets capped on the turn you don't have implied odds to win this hand. You have to hope it doesn't get capped (that only one of them has an ace), and that you fill with the right card or find the case king. This makes it a tough but justified lay down (check and fold to a raise on the turn). However, you pounded the flop. Now you have implied odds to go along for the ride on the turn with those extra three big bets in the pot. So the real mistake in this hand was your reraise on the flop which took away the potential fold in the event the turn is not a blank. The only time you want to draw with your set when you figure you're not a favorite to be in the lead is when you know that only one of your opponents can raise the turn. This will happen here if the turn is a blank. Therefore you're not concerned with making the straight draws pay on the flop when it has become probable that hand is already made.
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Re: Hand, Snorbolus, 23. May 2003 05:21
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Andrew, I think that you are saying something important in this post, but I am having trouble following it - to be fair, I am just out of bed and my brain is working slowly right now. Nevertheless, if you could see your way to rehashing your line of reasoning in a simpler to understand form it would save me the trouble of ploughing through it again later. Snorbolus >.......So the real mistake in this hand was your > reraise on the flop which took away the potential fold in the event the turn is not a > blank. The only time you want to draw with your set when you figure you're not a > favorite to be in the lead is when you know that only one of your opponents can raise > the turn. This will happen here if the turn is a blank. Therefore you're not > concerned with making the straight draws pay on the flop when it has become probable > that hand is already made.
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Re: Hand, Andrew Wells, 23. May 2003 05:52
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I should correct myself first, that there are 16 possible AQ combinations available. I must have been considering the queen that fell on the turn when it hadn't happened yet. Not that you or I would three bet an early position raiser with such a hand (suited or not), but that doesn't mean one of these yahoos wouldn't. It's just that when you suspect that top set is not the curent best hand (after the flop raise and cold call), you really have no business making the pot larger when it is three handed. If you continue to build the pot on the flop, you're going to the river with your implied odds even if a very bad card comes on the turn. If you just call the flop raise, you can check if a scare card comes on the turn. This lets you fold to a raise (no longer have implied odds, considering for this to happen several of your outs are not in the deck), or call a single bet on the draw.
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Re: Hand, MozMan, 23. May 2003 08:17
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If I can jump in here... It sounds like what you are saying is that the pot odds are there to fill up, so you gotta stay in, but it's really a falacy because you artificially created those odds yourself with over-aggressive betting... does that sound right, in a nutshell? -Moz
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Re: Hand, shorn, 23. May 2003 08:23
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Yes. The actual pot odds are there, but it is YOUR dead money that created them so the amount that you actually win if you do hit is lower. This creates a -EV situation and lower implied odds if you hit.
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Re: Hand, stdioh, 23. May 2003 10:43
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Yes, but you had the best of it when you put that money in. It's ok.
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Re: Hand, Andrew Wells, 23. May 2003 15:36
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That's what happened when Schuster elected to jam on the flop. All I'm saying is that the player who called three cold before the flop and then two cold on the flop is going to concern me enough (even at 2-4) to slow down with top set. Let's say a blank comes on the turn. Now I lead bet again, but I'm not going to get raised and reraised unless at least one of them has AQ (possible exception being set over set over set). If an ace or queen comes on the turn it's almost certain that there is at least one straight, but I'm only concerned with the case where both opponents have the current nuts. Therefore I can check and overcall, or let it go to a raise. Even though on the surface I would have odds to call two bets cold on the turn (or two bets cold twice), the point is that I would be discounting the outs to fill or quad enough to decide to make the tough lay down. I lose one out against AA and AQ (which if I knew those were the exact hands they held would make it okay to stay for the river), two outs against AX and AY, assuming both players have straights with a pair. AQ and an underset is much worse, as I have just six outs. The only way I have all ten outs is if both players have pocket aces. So overall I figure to have eight effective outs plus there may be a miracle card available that makes one of them quads or a royal which would cost me several big bets on the river should I fill up with the cold one. Thus I don't have implied odds to call two or four bets cold on the turn. But if I had jammed on the flop, then there would be enough in the pot to tag along. By just calling the raise on the flop I keep some flexibility, by jamming I'm committed to the river regardless of how bad the turn is.
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Re: Hand, shorn, 23. May 2003 06:54
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GREAT analysis Andrew.
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Re: Hand, shorn, 23. May 2003 06:44
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Schuster- I agree somewhat with Big_slick that you were over aggressive with your hand. Here is what I would have done differently: 1. I would not have capped pre-flop. The main reason for this is not the three-bettor, but the flat caller behind him (what would he call 3 cold with?). He concerns me a great deal. Additionally, by just calling the three bet, you disguise your strength a bit AND you get to see the flop more cheaply (save 1 SB if an Ace flops which one of them or both may have). 2. The flop as you pointed out was not the greatest for you, but I don't think your leading with top set was a bad play. The worst thing that you could do here is have it checked around and give someone with a lone A or Q a free shot at the straight. HOWEVER, when it was raised and cold called again, then there is no way that you can three-bet. In this situation, I go into check/call mode at best and hope for either two blanks to come or to fill up as cheaply as possible if I am against AQ. With all the strength that you have already shown, you have to think you may be behind when you are raised and again flat called on the flop. 3. I think you made the biggest mistake on the turn by calling when the Q did come. Now, not only does an Ace have you beat, but you are behind a lone 9 as well. I would have released my hand to any significant action here. However (as Andrew points out in his great post), because the betting was capped pre-flop and on the flop, there were 12 BB's in the pot at this point and you had at most 10 outs to call (K, 3Q, 3J, 3T assuming no one else had a set which isn't entirely safe to assume), so trying to fill isn't the worst play. With one opponent, this would be a no-brainer check/call...with two and especially that nasty cold caller, I think it is a fold. This was a tough hand and I know it is really difficult t step off the gas with a big pair that turns into top set. However, the best players out there who are consistent big winners (even at 2/4) recognize these situations and fold the tough one's. Money saved is as good as money won at the end of the day and I think you could have played this hand less aggressively and gone to bed with 3-5 BB's more than you did. Good luck. Steve 4
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Re: Hand, Snorbolus, 23. May 2003 10:09
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I don't see anything wrong with capping for value here pre-flop. The only hands that you don't have dominated are AA and the other KK. You are probably going to have to dump to an ace on the flop but that is true even if you don't cap. Also, if the flop is ugly but you somehow manage to see the river cheeply, and find that you are best, then you will be glad that you capped when you had the chance. Things didn't start to look ugly for Schuster's hand until all the action on the flop - as previously discussed in this thread. Snorbolus > 1. I would not have capped pre-flop. The main reason for this is not the > three-bettor, but the flat caller behind him ........
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Re: Hand, shorn, 23. May 2003 11:29
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Fair enough. I guess it is my nature to be overly careful with a 3-bet cold caller because I know that there are only three hands that i would do that with. Also, I like to get the decption value of not capping it since everyone puts you on AA or KK if you cap...that can kill your action later. But, I can see the merit of capping for value. Thanks, Steve
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Re: Hand, Andrew Wells, 23. May 2003 15:59
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I also see no problem with capping before the flop. If I chose not to, then I would be playing for a checkraise against the over aggressive player with the late position opponent caught in the middle. Maybe a reraise from the action player would be enough to get it heads up going into the turn (I know it's unlikely) with a strong overpair.
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Re: Hand, stdioh, 23. May 2003 08:46
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When you flop this fragile top set, you really don't want anybody to be drawing, so betting out is correct. Now when you get raised like that, three betting and capping is a really bad idea. There's only one other king out there...did the guy who raised you hold that? What about the other player? It is very likely in this case for somebody to be holding AQ and now you only have a 1/3 chance of tightening up. Calling on the turn is ok as you are chasing your tight. Folding the river was the right thing to do there and you should take heart that there are a lot of players who would not fold their top set even with such an obvious fold up because it is top set. I love watching a player call one, then call 2 more, then call the cap on the river, while two opponents jam it with the nuts.
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Re: Hand, Steve Burnett, 23. May 2003 09:22
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I'm tighting on the flop after my raise in UTG is re-reraised (implies that no-one is afraid of AA or KK) and dropping after the flop.
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Re: Hand, shorn, 23. May 2003 09:27
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So you would fold to one bet on the flop or on the turn when the Q comes?
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Re: Hand, stdioh, 23. May 2003 10:45
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It is very much incorrect to fold on the flop. You have massive pot odds with top set, even if you know that you are up against a made straight.
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Re: Hand, shorn, 23. May 2003 11:35
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I agree. I was asking Steve Burnestt if he would have folded on the flop. No way I fold with that hand there.
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Re: Hand, Karlugato, 23. May 2003 16:32
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This is just my opinion but I think you bet well, up until the fourth card your odds were great.
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