UPF - How do you calculate odds?

Server Time: 11/21/2008 12:04:00 PM PACIFIC

How do you calculate odds?, Dr_Monkey, 20. May 2003 05:12
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Can someone explain how to calculate odds or point me to a web site or a book that explains it? I think I understand pot odds and how to calculate them. Say the pot is $10 with one other player left. He bets $1. My pot odds at 12 to 1. One more dollar will win me $12 potentially. With this knowledge, what do I do? Do I calculate the odds of my hand winning or getting better? How is this done. Any help would be appreciated in helping me understand how to use "odds" in my play.
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Re: How do you calculate odds?, Easy E, 20. May 2003 05:30
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on 20. May 2003 05:12 Dr_Monkey wrote: > Can someone explain how to calculate odds or point me to a web site or a book > that explains it? > > I think I understand pot odds and how to calculate them. Say the pot is $10 > with one other player left. He bets $1. My pot odds at 12 to 1. Umm, no- it's 11:1 or 12 FOR 1. What's in the pot now, vs. what you have to invest to win it With this knowledge, what do I do? > > Do I calculate the odds of my hand winning or getting better? How is this done. Yes, you have to calculate the hand odds. Example: 4 flush on the flop. You are approx. 4:1 (38 cards aren't flush :9 cards make flush) against making it by the turn and approx 4:1 (37:9) on the river... which is approx 2:1 against making it BY the river. So, if the pot was $35 and the bet was $10 (10/20 game), and you would NOT go to the river with the hand if you don't catch the turn, you would fold due to pot odds of 3.5:1 on a 4.26:1 chance. There are a lot more complicated scenarios as well.
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Re: How do you calculate odds?, Dr_Monkey, 20. May 2003 06:03
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Thanks for the input. I think I understand. But after the flop, aren't there 39 cards that are not flush. 3 x 13? Doesn't change the odds, still approx. 4:1, but I want to make sure I understand. I don't understand how it is approx. 2:1 against making it By the river. Can't figure out how you calculate this. If the pot was $50 using your example, you would have 5:1 pot odds so you would probably go to the river, since 5:1 is better than 4.22:1. Maybe not go automatically since the odds are close, but the risk is better? > Yes, you have to calculate the hand odds. Example: 4 flush on the flop. You are > approx. 4:1 (38 cards aren't flush :9 cards make flush) against making it by the turn > and approx 4:1 (37:9) on the river... which is approx 2:1 against making it BY the > river. > So, if the pot was $35 and the bet was $10 (10/20 game), and you would NOT go to > the river with the hand if you don't catch the turn, you would fold due to pot odds > of 3.5:1 on a 4.26:1 chance. > > There are a lot more complicated scenarios as well.
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Re: How do you calculate odds?, JunglingS, 20. May 2003 07:47
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Okay, in trying to keep this as just a simple overview, I'm not going to go too deep into the math here. To get a real handle on all of that, look into taking a class in probabilities and statistics. Basically, let's say you're trying to calculate the odds of a four flush on the flop making it by the river. First thing to figure out is how many possible 2 card combinations are there for the turn and river cards. With 47 unseen cards in the deck, this turns out to be: 47! / (2!45!) = 1081 Now, we need to figure out how many two card combinations will contain one flush card. This is: 938 = 342 Okay, now we need to account for all combinations that result in both of the last two cards resulting in flush cards. And this is: 9! / (2!7!) = 36 Add up all combinations resulting in a flush: 342+36 = 378 And finally, if you want the odds as a percentage divide this by total possible hands (100 to be expressed properly): 100(378 / 1081) = 34.9% Or as a ratio: 1081 : 378 -- Simplified is 2.8 : 1
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Re: How do you calculate odds?, shorn, 20. May 2003 07:58
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There are 47 unseen cards left after the flop, 9 of which help you, and 38 which do not. So, your odds of making your flush ON THE NEXT CARD are 38:9 or 4.22 to 1. So, you would need at least 4 bets in the pot to call (for pot odd purposes). HOWEVER, you need to be careful if the board has a pair on it because you could make the flush and still lose to a boat. So, if that was/is the case, you need higher than 4.22 to 1 to continue. As far as it being roughly 2:1 to make the flush by the river, it has to do with the fact that you have two shots at catching one of the remaining 9 suited cards. So, you need to add the chances together to come to that result (4.22:1 = 23.7%; 4.11:1 = 24.3%). So you have about a 48% chance to make the flush by the river, or 2:1. One thing that I don't recommend doing is talking yourself into calling a bet on the flop based on the 2:1 thinking. The ONLY time that I do this is if I have extra outs other than the flush. For example, I hold AKh and the flop comes 9 6 2 with two hearts. In this case, an Ace or a King could give me the best hand too, so I don't need 4:1 to call a bet on the flop (in fact, if it is to me for a bet, would likely raise in this spot). If you don't have these "extra" outs, you will be bleeding away chips on a -EV play if you use 2:1. Normally, I always want 4:1 to call with a four flush. Hope this helps. Steve
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Re: How do you calculate odds?, Easy E, 20. May 2003 15:16
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on 20. May 2003 06:03 Dr_Monkey wrote: > Thanks for the input. > > I think I understand. But after the flop, aren't there 39 cards that are not flush. 3 x > 13? Don't forget the non-flush card already out on the flop, when subtracting from 52. (-2 hand, -2 flop, -1 non-flush card on flop, -9 flush cards left = 38 other cards) > > I don't understand how it is approx. 2:1 against making it By the river. Can't figure > out how you calculate this. Chance of coming on turn + chance of coming on river= result, then ratio of that value (denominator) vs the (1-result) as the numerator. See the others posters for clearer definitions. > If the pot was $50 using your example, you would have 5:1 pot odds so you would probably > go to the river, since 5:1 is better than 4.22:1. Maybe not go automatically since the > odds are close, but the risk is better? Yes, but ONLY TO SEE THE TURN! If the turn isn't a flush card, then he bets $20, making it $70... and you're only getting 3.5:1 currently to see the river. Now, IMPLIED odds will allow you to call on the turn (NOTE- see shorn's post for the pair risks) if he will put at least $20 in on the river if the flush comes and you are the sure winner if the flush DOES hit. You expect $90 in the pot ($70 now, $20 from him calling your river bet), outside of the $20 you have to put in on the turn, on the river, making the implied odds 4.5:1 on your $20 here. *Remember, you have to be the nut hand if the flush comes, or at least reasonably assured of it. That way, the $20 bet by YOU on the river can be reasonably ignored in these calculations, since you just expect it back for a zero-sum result on your river bet. Hope that helps. I still have issues with figuring pot odds and other hand odds, so don't feel that you are alone.
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