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Server Time: 11/20/2009 7:44:47 PM PACIFIC |
 rrrr.... The not Monty Hall test followup, Easy E, 20. May 2003 13:29 | ||
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| Similar comments to stdioh's on 2+2 thread. (I couldn't add to the original thread any more) You pick A randomly. instructor says C is incorrect without knowing what you picked. ... and I STILL don't get why a 67% chance is now a 50% chance and probably never will, so don't bother trying. | ||
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| Re: rrrr.... The not Monty Hall test followup, shorn, 20. May 2003 13:33 | ||
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| In that context, it is still 67% since the instructor told u C was wrong. But, I think the problem is that the instructor said "one of the remaining two" is incorrect and didn't identify. So, if you interpret that to mean that one of the remining two is correct if you switch, it only goes to 50% since your first pick isn't involved anymore. It becomes a new chance at picking (B) or (C). | ||
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| Re: rrrr.... The not Monty Hall test followup, stdioh, 20. May 2003 14:29 | ||
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| Assume that the instructor tells everybody that C is wrong...not just people who didn't pick C. This is where it varies from Montey Hall. Montey only opens a door that you didn't pick. The teacher is picking a question, not based on what you chose, but based on some external factor. Therefore, you cannot infer anything from that decision in terms of your chances of being correct initially. | ||
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| See, I assumed the odds didn't change, Easy E, 20. May 2003 17:58 | ||
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| If you only had a 1/3 chance without any information, then there was a 2/3's chance that the other two choices were good. As I've said, I don't "get" why when Monty picks the last door, i have a 67% chance when switching, but when the teacher randomly picks #C, I only have 50%. But i'll always switch and not worry about it any more. | ||
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| Re: See, I assumed the odds didn't change, stdioh, 21. May 2003 08:44 | ||
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| That's the point. The teacher isn't randomly picking anything. The teacher is always telling you that a wrong thing is wrong whether you pick it or not. Montey is always telling you that a wrong that *that you did not pick* is wrong. | ||
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| Re: rrrr.... The not Monty Hall test followup, PairTheBoard, 10. Jun 2003 17:26 | ||
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| I can't find the 2+2 thread you mention so I'm not sure what the "Teacher" situation is. I assume it's something like you're in a class taking a test and out of the blue the teacher says C is wrong on one of the ABC questions which you are guessing on with the answer A. The teacher does not say this on the basis of seeing that you've picked A, she just randomly picks one of the wrong answers to tell the class. Notice, she could have said A just as easily. I guess you can assume that one third of the time she will annonce C wrong, 1/3 B, and 1/3 A. When she announces A wrong, clearly you switch and have a 50% chance with B and C. When she announces B wrong, staying with A is the same as if you had already had B, which is just as likely since you're guessing, and switch to A, ie. you've got a 50-50 chance. With Monty Hall, he ALWAYS consders what YOU picked and then eliminates B or C. To see why it's such a big advantage to switch in this case, suppose there were 1000 doors. Whatever door you pick first, Monty eliminates all but one of the remaining 999 doors. You know every time you play this game that the chances are 999/1000 that the correct door is NOT the first one you pick. Please, let me pick the entire group of 999 doors that does not contain the one you first identify. | ||
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