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Server Time: 10/11/2008 11:24:17 PM PACIFIC |
 One more tournament hand question, noiseboy, 15. May 2003 15:26 | ||
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| Ok, it's down to about 14 players in a limit hold'em tournament. I've been blinded way down to just a few big bets, I'm UTG and I see KQo, not great but I'm about to blind out pretty soon, so I raise UTG hoping to pick up the blinds, or if not, at least I have a reasonably strong hand. I know if somebody has a pocket pair, they will probably raise and try to get it heads up with me since they might correctly put me on a desperation move. As long as the pair isn't AA, KK, or QQ, I am only slightly the dog. An aggresive player raises me all-in. At this point I know I'm against some strength, but I feel that I'm totally pot committed so I just throw in the rest of my chips and say a silent prayer to the poker gods (even though I'm an Atheist). Anyway, we all turn over our hands and I'm up against TT's and 99's. I know I'm only a slight dog to ONE pocket pair, but with two out there that doubles the chance for a set. I got lucky and picked up a Q on the turn. Just how lucky is that? With two pairs out there, I know I had to be the least likely of the three hands to win, but I'm not sure by how much. Thanks again. | ||
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| Re: One more tournament hand question, Big_Slick, 15. May 2003 16:02 | ||
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| I'm not sure of the exact numbers (I'm sure one of our guru's can give you the specifics) but I'd have to say that you were only a slight underdog in that situation. | ||
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| Re: One more tournament hand question, NiceFella, 15. May 2003 19:43 | ||
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| According to the calculator at http://www.twodimes.net/poker/ the chances of each hand winning the pot are about: TT 45% 99 18% KQ 36% So actually, with a better than 1/3 chance to win the pot, with two other players in the pot you were getting proper pot odds on your bet! NiceFella | ||
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| Re: One more tournament hand question, noiseboy, 16. May 2003 09:22 | ||
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| Sweet! I'll have to check that site out, I'm more an intuitive player, so it would be extremely useful for me. I was thinking about that this morning, about how the nines were in big trouble with only two outs. Thanks for the link! | ||
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| Re: One more tournament hand question, Jav, 16. May 2003 10:24 | ||
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| Having two players with pocket pairs increased how much you will win if you do hit. Note that you have better odds against pocket 9's than pocket 10's (heads up) because you have a lightly better chance to get a straight. for comparison (using Hold'em Showdown): KQo vs pocket 10's and pocket 9's, KQo - 36.4% 10's - 45.1% 9's - 18.1% KQo vs pocket 10s, KQo - 43.3% 10's - 56.3% KQo vs pocket 9s, KQo - 44.5% 9's - 55.0% | ||
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| Re: One more tournament hand question, noiseboy, 16. May 2003 10:32 | ||
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| So actually, I DO want the pocket nines in there, since they contribute to the pot and have very little chance to win since they are dominated by the tens. Got it! Thanks. | ||
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| Re: One more tournament hand question, stdioh, 16. May 2003 10:04 | ||
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| I think you played that fine. Actually, you're much better against two pocket pairs than one pocket pair. Look at it this way: If you hit and they do not hit, then you win. Your chance of hitting your hand is close to 50%. Between the two of them, they have 4 outs to beat you if you win and they have 4 cards to do it in (since the card that makes your hand does not help their hands. Thus, they have a 31.4% chance that one of them will hit a set, giving you 68.6% if you hit. So your chance of winning the hand is about 34.3% ... now you still haven't considered the chance that one of them hits and you resuck with a straight, which could happen if either or both of them hit, since their pairs are high enough. However, you cannot make a straight without one of them hitting. If you are making a straight it will need a ten in it and there are only two of them left, so you pretty much lose all of your straight outs. Certainly they are counterbalanced by the chance of you making trips while your opponents fill up. So to make a long story short, you're looking at a better than 1/3 chance of trippling up. Since you're in desperation time, that's not bad. It is certainly better than one having a pair and the other having AJ. Then not only do you need to hit your hand, but hit it without an ace hitting your opponent as well. So to make a long story short, if you are in desperation time, then your degree of desperation really matters. If doubling up is enough to put you into comfort and safety then you want one caller here with a smaller pair. If tripling up gives you far better chances of winning, then you are getting better odds to have two pockets underpairs to your cards. Since it sounds like you were in pretty rough shape, I think you made the right move here. | ||
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