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Server Time: 11/20/2009 8:14:23 PM PACIFIC |
 flop odds, robert moulis, 15. May 2003 11:44 | ||
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| i'm obviously not a math whiz. how do you figure the probability of three players each holding a wired pair and each player flopping a set? | ||
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| Re: flop odds, stdioh, 15. May 2003 14:46 | ||
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| Figuring it out exactly for a table of 10 players is quite a bit of math. You need to know each player's chances of getting a pair when you consider the number of pairs used up, two players getting the same pair, etc. Here's a simple approximation that should come close. You have to have three different flop cards, so the chance of that is (48/51)*(45/50). Now assuming that there are only three players getting cards, then the first player's chance of getting a set is (9/48)*(2/47) ... given that he has his set, the chance of the second player having a set becomes (6/46)*(2/45) and given that, the chance of the third player having a set is (3/44)*(2/43). This is a total of 2,799,360/1,103,994,305,568,000 which works out to a one in 394 million chance which is to say that it is very unlikely. The problem is that we don't have only three players getting cards. We have 10 players getting cards. This is going to *drastically* increase our odds...and be very time consuming to calculate. To Hazard a guess, I would say that for every player you add you should be multiplying by 2. So I would guess that at a 10 player table your odds would be in the neighbourhood of 1 in 308,000 which would mean that at any given card table being dealt around the clock, this should happen about once a year. And I would say that is fairly reasonable. on 15. May 2003 11:44 robert moulis wrote: > i'm obviously not a math whiz. how do you figure the probability of three > players each holding a wired pair and each player flopping a set? | ||
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| Re: flop odds, Short Stackd, 16. May 2003 00:30 | ||
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| Is getting three wierd piars calculated in your formula? I figured your chances of flopping three sets assuming they are all live around 2400-1. This is not calculating the odds of catching three PP pre-flop. | ||
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| Re: flop odds, stdioh, 16. May 2003 10:11 | ||
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| Yes, this is the odds of getting a pocket pair and flopping a set on the same hand that 2 opponents also get pocket pairs and flop a set. If you assume that everybody already has to pocket pairs, this calculation becomes trivial. | ||
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| Re: flop odds, SKinner, 16. May 2003 06:24 | ||
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| on 15. May 2003 11:44 robert moulis wrote: > i'm obviously not a math whiz. how do you figure the probability of three > players each holding a wired pair and each player flopping a set? Define 'wired' please. –SKinner | ||
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| Re: flop odds, stdioh, 16. May 2003 10:12 | ||
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| wired pair equals pocket pair. It is a slightly inapropriate adaptation of 7-stud where there is a difference between a wired pair and a pocket pair. | ||
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