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Server Time: 11/20/2009 9:29:12 PM PACIFIC |
 ODDS, PUPA, 14. May 2003 08:49 | ||
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| What are the odds of pairing at least one of your hole cards after the flop in hold'em? | ||
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| Re: ODDS, stdioh, 14. May 2003 10:45 | ||
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| You have 6 outs to hit one of your hole cards (assuming that they are different and that you have no reason to believe that somebody else is or is not holding duplicates of them). Thus, you have 47 remaining unseen cards and 6 outs. That means that you have a 6/47 chance of hitting one of them on the turn and a 41/47 * 6/46 chance that you don't hit on the turn, but do hit on the river. 6/47+(41*6)/(47*46) is just worse than 1:3 against (you have a 1 in 4 chance of hitting). Actually, there is a 24% chance that you get there. So you have a slightly better chance of making a pair than if you were drawing to a gutshot, but of course there are plenty of gutshots that will leave you with the nuts...if you make your hand you have to think about the chances that somebody else beats you anyway. Notwithstanding, there are lots of times when it is ok to draw to overcards...just make sure that you are getting your pot odds for 6 outs. | ||
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| Re: ODDS, PUPA, 14. May 2003 11:34 | ||
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| on 14. May 2003 10:45 stdioh wrote: > You have 6 outs to hit one of your hole cards (assuming that they are different and > that you have no reason to believe that somebody else is or is not holding duplicates > of them). Thus, you have 47 remaining unseen cards and 6 outs. That means that you > have a 6/47 chance of hitting one of them on the turn and a 41/47 * 6/46 chance that > you don't hit on the turn, but do hit on the river. 6/47+(41*6)/(47*46) is just worse > than 1:3 against (you have a 1 in 4 chance of hitting). Actually, there is a 24% > chance that you get there. So you have a slightly better chance of making a pair than > if you were drawing to a gutshot, but of course there are plenty of gutshots that > will leave you with the nuts...if you make your hand you have to think about the > chances that somebody else beats you anyway. Notwithstanding, there are lots of times > when it is ok to draw to overcards...just make sure that you are getting your pot > odds for 6 outs. | ||
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| Re: ODDS, ranwel, 15. May 2003 09:00 | ||
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| on 14. May 2003 08:49 PUPA wrote: > What are the odds of pairing at least one of your hole cards after the > flop in hold'em? If you hold no pair, you will 'pair' at least one of your hole cards: 32.43% of the time, or your odds are 2.08 to 1. ran | ||
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| Re: ODDS, stdioh, 15. May 2003 10:08 | ||
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| Where do you get this from? I make 24% of the time by my calculations. Even if you count some cases twice (like making on the turn AND the river as two cases) you still don't come up with more than 26%. | ||
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