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Server Time: 12/2/2008 6:56:58 PM PACIFIC |
 Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, flintsword, 3. May 2003 21:23 | ||
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| Today this really interesting (to me at least) situation got me thinking. Here is the situation. One preflop raise called round with three people in the game. JKo bets into the flop of 88J as a semibluff (yes, that's me and I am a big fish). A player holding AJo right after me calls, figuring me for AJ, KJ, or worse kicker, but discounts an 8 because (wince) I have been caught representing hands earlier in the session. (Note: today I was testing out playing a little aggressively, ... needs work) (1) At this point, how solid is AJo ground if we assume he also has a runner runner flush draw? The turn was a Q. On board is: 8 8 J Q. I bet and he called. To me the call said "I don't have an 8 and I don't have JJ" so I put him on a Jx, probably a high kicker and (alas) quite possibly an Ace, as it turned out he did have AJo. (2) Is AJo still ok to call here? There are a lot of hands that kill off AJo here, but right now, AJo is the better hand. The river was a K (no flush). On board is: 8 8 J Q K AJo bet, I raised, he called and I won. (3) Should AJ have bet in this situation? I was thinking about the hands that beat AJo, and this is where it get interesting to me. Listing the hands that beat AJo, I get: 9T(16), KK(6), AA(6), AT(16), 8x(24), 88(1), JJ(1), QQ(4), Qx(36) no 8's, Kx(33) no 8's & Q's for a total of 143 hands. Granted half of them are unlikely to be bet preflop, ... even by me, ... but it seems to me that this was a folding situation for the AJo. I have simplified the play to distill out the key question on whether Ajo should fold at the flop, the turn, and/or the river. Other information: the AJo player is aggressive and (also) has represented hands previously in the session. Any critical comment (positive & negative) appreciated. Thanks in advance and I am ready for my beating! flintsword | ||
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| Re: Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, flintsword, 3. May 2003 21:57 | ||
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| Things are looking grim for KJo at the flop. On specific choices of cards for AJo and KJo, I am getting 990 possible deals against 8 8 J, running 75%in favour of AJ winning the hand. KJ would need pot odds of over 5 to 1 to keep playing after the flop. Looks like KJ should have folded at the flop. At the turn, KJo looks even worse, needing pot odds of over 8 to 1 to keep playing after the turn. Looks like KJo should have folded at the turn too. flintsword | ||
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| Re: Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, 4 POKER, 3. May 2003 23:09 | ||
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| I think your bet on the flop was correct. By betting your hand on the flop, you should not only bet because you think you may have the best hand, you should also be betting the flop to see where you stand. I will tell you what I would do if I held your hand, and what I would do if I held AJo. (very long)... I'm holding KJ. With a board of 8-8 J, I would lead at the flop to see where I stand. Being that this pot was raised pre-flop, once my opponent called me on the flop, I would not have bet the turn. Reasons being; If he holds a bigger pair than you or has you out-kicked,or something really strong, many times the player will just call on the flop, and now when it is bet again (big bet), they will raise you. You will be put in a much tougher situation now as to whether you're still holding the best hand. If he was holding just overcards, like AQ, he probably would call your bet on the flop as well, putting you on a pair of JJ's and thinking that he still had 2 overcards to beat you with. If he holds AK, he still might make the raise on the turn to just try and represent a real hand. It would be much too hard now to read him correctly..."real hand or bluff"? If I held your hand, I would bet the flop. I would chose the check/call play on the turn because if I do bet the turn and get raised, I either have to call him down to the river with what might be the worst hand, or I could chose to fold now on the turn after he raises me with what might be the best hand! Many moves are made on the turn; some of them are legitimate raises and many of them are just semi-bluffs or total bluffs. Once he calls your bet on the flop, you're really not giving up that much by checking the turn. **This type of hand is one that has enough strength to call his bets on the turn and river, but it isn't quite strong enough to call raises with on the turn and you'll be paying it off on the river as well.** And if he does have you beat or out-kicked, which is the same thing, than he will probably will make it too costly for you once you do bet the turn and your overall loss for this hand will be quite high. If you check and call you lose the minimum when you are beat, if you check and call with the BEST hand, you may also win more money because he may very well just be trying to bluff at the pot, especially if you're dealing with a very aggresive opponent. I would check the turn, if he bet, I would call. I would check the river as well(as long as I didn't hit the third jack). If he doesn't have you beat on the turn, you're only allowing him one free shot at the river now to beat you, and by also checking the river in this spot, if he was bluff betting on the turn, he will also be more apt to bluff bet at the river, too. If you bet into him on the river, he can't call you with no hand, but if you check, that will give him another chance to try and bluff at the pot again, which will earn you one extra bet here. So by check/calling you A, lose the minumim with the worst hand. B, you check/call to try and induce a bluff bet from your opponent earning you more money on your semi-strong holdings. By betting the turn you will lose the maximum most of the time if he has you beat. If I'm holding his hand, AJ, once you bet the flop, I would definitely raise you. If you reraised than I would just call your bets on the turn and river. I wouldn't lay the hand down, but I never would have just called your bet on the flop either. If you held a Jack, then I've got you beat anyway.(and you're more likely to hold a J, than you are to holding the third 8.) With a flop like 8-8-J, many players will lead at this flop just to try and represent a real hand; many pots are won that way, too. If I did raise the flop however, and my opponent didn't re-raise me? When the turn card comes, if he checks, I will check it behind him. Why? Because he might be going for a check/raise in that spot. Which now leaves me vulnerable on the turn as to whether I'm still holding the best hand. If he bets the river, I call. If he checks the river, I'll bet. Most players do not try for the check/raise twice. If he was trying to check/raise you on the turn and it failed, he definitely wouldn't try to do it again on the river; He'll want to get at least one bet out of you and he will without a doubt bet his hand now. If he does happen to have an inferior hand to mine, when you checked it along with him on the turn, he won't think that his hand is the worst hand now, and he will bet the river for you. A value bet is even sweeter when our opponents make them for us!!... Remember that one, too! Good luck, 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, 4 POKER, 4. May 2003 12:02 | ||
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| After reading your original post, I am a little confused at how the betting actually happened. First you said that when the flop came up (8-8-J), YOU BET (in first position) and the player holding A-J just called you. Then you asked if his call was correct on the turn. There are hands that beat A-J, but there are also hands that don't. I think his call was justified. but... THEN you said, on the river, " A-J bet, I raised, He called, and I won". Did the two of you switch seats or something during this hand???(check out your second post as well). Position is very important and can not be weighed out when discussing the complete ananlysis of a hand. Strategic plays and strategic decisions are also very important, and understanding "strategy" will allow you to make the most $$ from your holdings and will help you to lose the least possible as well. Just like you would never want to exclude your pot odds given a situation, it is imperative that you realize that position, strategic plays, and reading your opponents are just as important (if not more)as the percentages that you may use to figure out what odds you may be getting. This is not a critique on your play by any means, I am simply trying to give you a correct opinion on how this hand could have been played out from a more strategic level and one that is based on position as well. The options that are offered to you during a hand, whether it be to bet, raise, check, call, ckeck/call or fold are very important tools and none of these tools should ever be dismissed when trying to figure out and or calculate our best possible course of action during the hand. But like I pointed out, based on the information you gave, I'm not sure if you were in first position or second position. I read your second post and I understand what your pot odds were, but that doesn't help clarify what position you were in. 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, shorn, 5. May 2003 11:23 | ||
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| 4POKER- Like your analysis. I would have played the same way with both hands. One question though...what do you do if he check-raises the river after he checked the turn? I know you point out that this is unlikely to happen (and I agree), but it is not inconceivable. Would you lay down your AJ then? Just curious... | ||
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| Re: Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, 4 POKER, 5. May 2003 13:04 | ||
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| on 5. May 2003 11:23 shorn wrote: > 4POKER- > > Like your analysis. I would have played the same way with both hands. One question > though...what do you do if he check-raises the river after he checked the turn? I know you > point out that this is unlikely to happen (and I agree), but it is not inconceivable. Would > you lay down your AJ then? Just curious... That's a tough question. I would now have to put myself inside his head and do that whole "What does he think I have and what does he think I think he has" and so on! The psycological thinking will play a bigger role here and I'd really have to know this opponent well enough to make the most profitable decision for the long term effect. I would also have to think on how he perceived me as well. I am a pretty tight player so many moves are made at me with situations like this. Players tend to get overly aggressive with me if they think they have even a small chance to knock me out! But what they don't realize is that "I'm aware of that move"! If I had to give you either a "Call or Fold" answer, I think I might be more apt to call; only because if he has me beat, this would give me so much valuable information the next time I played with him. The extra bet on the river would be worth it if I now gained another type of "play" that this particular player was capable of. Even if in my gut I thought I was beat, I would make the call. I'd want to know if he was capable of check/raising twice with a made hand or if he was capable of check/raising on a bluff. Even though my call would be a borderline one at that, I still do have a hand that could be the best hand. Yes, I make the call. I'd like to know what you would do, thanks. 4 POKER 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, shorn, 5. May 2003 13:45 | ||
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| I would definitely call. You would probably be getting somewhere around 9-1 or so with the previous action, so I think it is important (for future hands) to find out how tricky this player is. The money that you save (or win) in the long run with the information you get from calling is well worth the 1 BB it costs you to get it. Thanks, Steve | ||
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| Re: Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, 4 POKER, 5. May 2003 21:07 | ||
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| on 5. May 2003 13:45 shorn wrote: > I would definitely call. You would probably be getting somewhere around 9-1 or so with the previous > action, so I think it is important (for future hands) to find out how tricky this player is. The money > that you save (or win) in the long run with the information you get from calling is well worth the 1 BB > it costs you to get it. > > Thanks, > > Steve Steve, Thanks for responding. We are in agreement here, that's good! (I respect your thoughts). Let me ask you another question: When involved in a heads up hand, how many times since you've been playing poker, has your opponent gone for a check/raise on the turn and failed to succeed with this play, and then try for the same play again on the river? I don't think that has ever happened to me in any game; not in a heads up situation. I won't rule out the possibilities though, and I know that it is not inconceivable for this type of play to occur, I was just giving this more thought, that's all. Thanks, Dave | ||
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| Re: Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, shorn, 6. May 2003 07:20 | ||
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| Dave- I would say it has happened only rarely and only in a higher limit game (20-40 online I have seen it a few times). It is a rare player to try for the check/raise twice as they usually don't want to risk losing the river call if it doesn't work on the turn. However, if you know your opponent well enough you can pull it off and gain two bets that you normally wouldn't. Effectively, the opponent must be one who will fold to a turn bet when they sense strength from you, but will bet the river when you check twice (with a medium holding) and then call the river raise because the pot is now large enough to warrant it. So, you need a strong player that knows that you will bluff the river from time to time. Otherwise it isn't worth it. Again, I am not saying that this play works that often, but it can gain you two hours income in the right circumstances. As always, the key is knowing your opponents well. Steve | ||
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| Re: Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, 4 POKER, 6. May 2003 12:39 | ||
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| on 6. May 2003 07:20 shorn wrote: > Dave- > > I would say it has happened only rarely and only in a higher limit game (20-40 online I have seen it a few times). > It is a rare player to try for the check/raise twice as they usually don't want to risk losing the river call if > it doesn't work on the turn. However, if you know your opponent well enough you can pull it off and gain two bets > that you normally wouldn't. Effectively, the opponent must be one who will fold to a turn bet when they sense > strength from you, but will bet the river when you check twice (with a medium holding) and then call the river > raise because the pot is now large enough to warrant it. So, you need a strong player that knows that you will > bluff the river from time to time. Otherwise it isn't worth it. > > Again, I am not saying that this play works that often, but it can gain you two hours income in the right > circumstances. As always, the key is knowing your opponents well. > > Steve Steve, Very good point. Another question for ya. Do you play for a living? ....think about it if you don't! Dave | ||
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| Re: Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, shorn, 6. May 2003 12:47 | ||
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| on 6. May 2003 12:39 4 POKER wrote: > on 6. May 2003 07:20 shorn wrote: Steve, > > Very good point. > Another question for ya. > Do you play for a living? ....think about it if you don't! > > Dave Dave- Wow. That is quite flattering coming from you as I know that you do play for a living. I don't at this point but would love to do so. I don't feel that I am nearly ready yet though, as I have only been playing seriously for 3 years or so. I play mostly for relaxation and some extra cake at this point. Give me five more years of studying, preparing, and playing a lot and I might think about it more seriously. Still much to learn. Thanks though! Steve | ||
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| Re: Flop 88J: Player A=AJo Player B=JKo, stdioh, 5. May 2003 09:48 | ||
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| I find that in hands like that there are a lot of players I would call habitual trips trappers. These guys always bet their pairs on a paired board and always slowplay their trips. Thus if I get somebody who is a habitual trips trapper betting out there and I am holding top pair, top kicker, I will certainly raise them, putting them on a weaker jack. Then if I get somebody cold calling after me, I can worry about *that* player having an 8. If I slowplay flopped trips in one session then I will almost certainly lead the next time it happens in that session. The astute players will have noted that I slowplayed my trips previously and will assume that I'm betting a pair and will play at me agressively. Likewise if I was betting it honestly and got my cards shown I'll slowplay it later. The really important thing in this sort of situation is to not be too predictable. | ||
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