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Server Time: 12/2/2008 7:18:06 PM PACIFIC |
 call or fold?, jdsalinger, 30. Apr 2003 10:57 | ||
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| online early in the session 4/8 1 middle limper, I raise cutoff AKo button calls SB folds BB calls. Flop comes Kh,10c,5c pretty good flop as I know I'll get a couple of callers. Everyone checks to me I bet get cold called by everyone. I'm pretty sure nobody has a K or they would have tested the waters at the flop so I put someone on a flush draw and someone on a gut shot as I think QJ may have semi-bluffed his open ended on the flop or checkraise to get more money as he is getting far better than 2 to 1 odds (the same goes for the flush draw). But these guys aren't really good but I'm pretty sure I'm looking at a flush and straight draw.turn is a 3 total brick and as I'm holding the Kc the flush draw has one less out and with the A I figure I'm also holding one less out for the QJ draw so with these little edges I'm pretty confident. Perfect card for me bet again only to get called by all again. Now I can't see why someone with a 10 would call a big bet but I've seen far worse. River brings a 5 the BB bets faster than I can blink. Now he may have KQ or KJ and knows I won't raise him here but he surely would have tested the waters on the flop. But seeing as there are 3 people behind him I'm 95% sure he has 5. MP folds and I'm up. If I fold here I'll be looking at a lot of chasers later who will try this crap on me but I don't want to waste the $8. What's your move here considering you plan on playing for another ~2 hrs? I ended up folding got drawn out a lot but only lost 10 BB left and made $300 in NL in about 5 min. so all was dandy. PS he did have the 5 as he "proudly" showed it | ||
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| Re: call or fold?, stdioh, 30. Apr 2003 11:01 | ||
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| Tough decision. Whether or not to make a potentially catastrophic fold is all about reads. If you can't get a read on the guy then you pretty much have to call this river bet. If he's the sort to play his 5 and not the sort to bet a river without at least a better hand than top pair, top kicker, then the fold is good. Just make damn hell sure that your read has a high degree of certainty as there are a lot of bets at stake in this pot and it only costs you one bet to be sure of his hand. | ||
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| Re: call or fold?, shorn, 30. Apr 2003 11:04 | ||
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| Good too see we agree on this one. Maybe I am improving! | ||
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| Re: call or fold?, jdsalinger, 30. Apr 2003 11:19 | ||
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| heads up I call or even raise and though there is a significant amount of BB it's rare for me to see anyone betting on the river into a field of players without actually have the goods. Most guys don't have the guts to pull this. Err it's one of the reasons why I almost exclusively play NL and PL now. But I probably should have called as I did get a lot of chasers later (play could haveinfluenced or not I will never know) | ||
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| Re: call or fold?, shorn, 30. Apr 2003 11:25 | ||
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| Like stdioh said, it is a tough call especially since he was passive the whole way. You are right that most folks won't lead into a field like that without the goods, but he was in the blind so even though you raised preflop and he called, it is the best spot to bluff at a card like that because you will get credit for having less of a hand (say A5s or something). So, unless you knew the player really well, I think it is worth the $8 (advertising value as well as you point out). You should try a bluff like this from that spot. If it works once in 12, you are ahead. | ||
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| Re: call or fold?, shorn, 30. Apr 2003 11:03 | ||
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| Looks like you are getting around 12-1 on your call and this is a card that someone could bluff on. I most likely would have called not wanting to lose 12 hours income if I was wrong, but you do bring up a good point that he led into the field so the pot was somewhat protected. I would have lost the extra $8. | ||
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| Re: call or fold?, Wren, 30. Apr 2003 12:03 | ||
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| Unless I'm absolutely, positively sure that my opponent has a 5 here, I pay him off. I had a hand the other day in which I held AQ, the flop was QJ5 and the turn was a 6. I had raised the flop, and now on the turn, a friend of mine, who plays rather maniacally and makes a lot of moves, makes a motion as though he is going to bet, but then checks. I'm suspicious, but I bet again anyway so as not to give the numerous draws out there a free card. My friend check-raises. I have him most likely on bottom two pair, which gives me 8 outs to a better hand (but may also give another opponent a better hand as well), but there is still the very small chance that he, too, is on a draw, and wants to create a monster pot in the event that he hits. This is unlikely, as he usually messes around like this on the flop, when it is cheaper to do so, and he usually bets out as opposed to checkraising when he is weaker. But still - I call, because the pot is huge. The river is some low brick. He bets again, and I call as there are 20 big bets in the pot. I am about 90% sure I am going to lose, but still not 100%. I could lay this down to a tighter, more solid player, but not to my friend. And so I call, and indeed he has bottom two pair. But I will call virtually 100% of the time in this same situation against this particular player. The moral of this long ramble is that one must be virtually 100% sure of oneself in order to fold a decent hand on the river when there's a huge pot. Catastrophic folds can cost you 15-20 hours of positive expectation. | ||
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| Re: call or fold?, 4 POKER, 2. May 2003 03:01 | ||
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| If I were holding AK, and got the same flop you did, with the same turn and river cards... If someone else bet the river and I was the "lone caller", he would be getting paid off. Show me a better hand. 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: call or fold?, Snorbolus, 2. May 2003 10:45 | ||
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| Did you get to see his other card? About the only hands that I can put him on (given that I know he had a 5) are 10 5, K 5, 55 or Ac 5. Ac5 seems unlikely because he called the turn after no club hit. So it is likely that you were behind the whole way. He didn't bet though, so there was no way for you to know. I think that a call on the river might be warrented because the 5 doesn't help any reasonable holding that wouldn't beat you anyway. Of course that assumes you are up against a good player - often not a safe assumption. Snorbolus on 30. Apr 2003 10:57 jdsalinger wrote: > online early in the session 4/8 1 middle limper, I raise cutoff AKo button calls > SB folds BB calls. Flop comes Kh,10c,5c pretty good flop as I know I'll get a > couple of callers. Everyone checks to me I bet get cold called by everyone. I'm > pretty sure nobody has a K or they would have tested the waters at the flop so I > put someone on a flush draw and someone on a gut shot as I think QJ may have > semi-bluffed his open ended on the flop or checkraise to get more money as he is > getting far better than 2 to 1 odds (the same goes for the flush draw). But > these guys aren't really good but I'm pretty sure I'm looking at a flush and > straight draw.turn is a 3 total brick and as I'm holding the Kc the flush draw > has one less out and with the A I figure I'm also holding one less out for the > QJ draw so with these little edges I'm pretty confident. Perfect card for me bet > again only to get called by all again. Now I can't see why someone with a 10 > would call a big bet but I've seen far worse. River brings a 5 the BB bets > faster than I can blink. Now he may have KQ or KJ and knows I won't raise him > here but he surely would have tested the waters on the flop. But seeing as > there are 3 people behind him I'm 95% sure he has 5. MP folds and I'm up. If I > fold here I'll be looking at a lot of chasers later who will try this crap on me > but I don't want to waste the $8. What's your move here considering you plan on > playing for another ~2 hrs? I ended up folding got drawn out a lot but only lost > 10 BB left and made $300 in NL in about 5 min. so all was dandy. > > PS he did have the 5 as he "proudly" showed it | ||
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| Re: call or fold?, Snorbolus, 2. May 2003 15:13 | ||
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| I have been thinking about this hand since my previous post. I now believe that folding the river was the right play. I am swayed because you read the BB for a 5. If there hadn't been any tell then calling is certainly in order. But I think that, if you strongly believe that you have a good read on a player, then you should trust your own judgment. Of course it depends on how sure you were about your read, but I think that if I made a crying call when I was sure that I was beaten it might annoy me sufficiently to affect my play. Snorbolus | ||
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