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Server Time: 8/30/2008 9:38:53 AM PACIFIC |
 Don't underestimate solid players' leaks., stdioh, 28. Apr 2003 09:53 | ||
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| I was about to play in my regular 10-20 game and I was at a really nice table. George and George were playing and both of them are - 2 BB per hour regular players. "Nelson Mandella" was at the table and he's probably a -5 BB per hour player or so. Well, that pays all our rakes and leaves some profit for the taking, so I'm a happy customer. I sit down and post behind the puck to see the wretched 46o. There are limps and folds to me and it looks like I'll get in with this garbage hand for free. Now let me tell you about Vince's wife. Vince is a solid player who's been at it for 40 some years, is a bit on the tight side, but is a solid positive expectation player who is easy to stay away from and not an asset to the table. His wife is also profitable, but only because she picks on the giant idiots - she's pretty rocky. If you try to push her over and she doesn't fall, then she's got a monster. Preflop she doesn't play anything worse than AJ. Well, she's got the puck and she limps there. About 6 of us see the flop which is *joy* T44 - rainbow. I'll definitely get action from pocket pairs and from any ten - possibly even from overcards. It's bet ahead of me and I raise - I want to give the impression of a ten - Vince's wife three-bets and the original bettor folds. I'm thinking she's got AT suited, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA (she's been known to play slow preflop with QQ, KK, and AA). I 4-bet and she calls. Good - not looking like TT. The turn is a blank and I bet out - she raises and I flat call. Now I'm worried. TT is looking like a possibility. The river is another blank and I check-call -> she bet the river so I really should be folding, but I'm too afraid that she's holding onto AA or TT or even that she's got small suited connectors with a 4 and will chop with me. My all is entirely out of fear of the catastrophic fold. She's holding A4 - offsuit no less. I asked, "Ace four? You?" Her response was curt: "Too many people. I have to play puck." Yes, she's been a rockish side of solid player for the 75 or so hours that I've been at tables with her, but there was a leak in her game. She had a predilection for playing loose on the puck against a big field of limpers. I was fearing 3 2-card combinations that beat me (pocket tens) while I was oblivious to the many ways of holding the case 4. I just thought it *impossible* for her to have exactly one 4 and put money in preflop and it cost me 3.5 big bets that I threw in needlessly. So the lesson learned here is this: When you *know* how a player plays preflop you can make a lot of money from that knowledge, but when you also *know* how they play after the flop, don't let your earlier guess cloud your judgement as there is no such thing as a winning player who doesn't vary his or her play at least a little bit. | ||
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| Re: Don't underestimate solid players' leaks., flintsword, 29. Apr 2003 12:09 | ||
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| I was grazing through Sklansky's Theory of Poker and once again read the chapter on game theory, where he has this example of a play that loses over the long term. Then he injects a structured number of bluffs (based on certain cards coming up in a hand) by the losing side into the play. Suddenly, the odds are reversed. I could not help recalling this when I read your post, and wondered if another possible (possible, not likely) explanation is that this was just a game theory bluff? Just an odd thought triggered by last night's reading. flintsword | ||
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| Re: Don't underestimate solid players' leaks., stdioh, 29. Apr 2003 13:01 | ||
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| on 29. Apr 2003 12:09 flintsword wrote: > I was grazing through Sklansky's Theory of Poker and once again read the chapter on > game theory, where he has this example of a play that loses over the long term. Then > he injects a structured number of bluffs (based on certain cards coming up in a hand) > by the losing side into the play. Suddenly, the odds are reversed. I could not help > recalling this when I read your post, and wondered if another possible (possible, not > likely) explanation is that this was just a game theory bluff? Just an odd thought > triggered by last night's reading. Indeed. I couldn't agree more. Sometimes varying your play is extremely lucrative when doing -EV things and this was certainly a case of it biting me in the azz, whether she intended it or not. For me, the hand is 7To - not a useful hand at all, but the sort that nobody will believe a good player is holding if it gets miracle cards. I'll raise preflop with this wanker of a hand about 10% of the time that I get it. So if I always end up throwing it away on the flop the cost there is 1 big bet over some 1105 hands or 37 hours. So that cuts into my profitability by 0.025 BB/hour. Now when I do hit my miracle flop, two things happen - thing one is that I make a much bigger pot with it than I deserve because people at the table are thinking "there's just no way he would have that crap and raise preflop" and subsequent hands are going to be played incorrectly against me because I will get less respect for my preflop raises (more likely to get cold callers) and I will get more fear factor on a scary board where the scare comes from big-blind type hands. The result of that should more than make up for the 0.025 BB/hour. Of course this is the sort of thing that can be really expensive if it is done too much. If you raise your 7To every chance you get it, then you're playing it just as much as AKo. Also, it's a good idea to pick the 10% of the time that you have it when you are on the big blind with a lot of limpers (pot odds make it less of a bad raise), on the puck (position doesn't hurt), and in a previously unraised hand (because AA will still stomp all over you - a fighting chance is better than no chance). In fact, for a long time, I have refered to 7To as my "Sklansky Hand." Though now that you all know about it I might have to be careful about when I raise it :) And the best feeling in the world, BTW, is raising your Sklansky hand and stealing the blinds with it. | ||
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