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Server Time: 12/2/2008 7:07:14 PM PACIFIC |
 Playing Between Short/Long Run, Rick Walo Jr, 24. Apr 2003 17:47 | ||
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| Okay, I understand that in the short-run, luck happens and you will suffer or benefit from this, and that over the long-run, good players win money. After a tough, horrible disgusting, stunning gut-wrenching beat, what do you do to remind yourself of this? How does one stay focused in the face of such adversity? I may as well get some play advice, since I'm posting... It's maybe the 10th hand of an online NL Hold'em WSOP qualifier at PokerStars, (for which 176 players are competing for 9 seats to a second round qualifier), and I'm two off the button looking at my shiny new pair of rockets underneath (aka, "Roy's favorite starting hand"). There is an early-to-mid position raise (less than 10% of the raiser's stack) and then nothing but folds to me. I've been getting poor results in NL tourneys with big raises and re-raises in early rounds, so I decide to smooth call. The button calls, and the blinds fold, and we take the flop three-handed. I should mention here that I'd just been switched to this table three hands before, so I don't have a great read on anyone. Here I'm playing on the assumption that these guys are of about average quality, with stacks comparable to mine. The flop comes down 2-2-4 rainbow. The early raiser goes all-in, I follow without much hesitation, and the button comes with us. As we turn over, I'm looking at 88 in front of me, and 99 behind me. So, clearly, my AA is well ahead, having flopped an additional runner-runner gutshot straight draw as well. This situation is further improved when a 5 falls on the turn to complete the rainbow. Now I need every card in the deck except for the two remaining eights or equal amount of nines. Good guess. The 8 hits on the river, and my chip and chair now belong to someone else. Was my play correct? According to the odds, the same play made 100 times would net me the chips at least 80. Is that enough? In hindsight, it seemed like both of these players were coming in whether I reraised or not pre-flop. As for the river 8, there's nothing we can do to control the cards. <sigh> I don't know. I'm not sure what I expect in terms of a response, but rather just feeling disgusted and needing to vent. So thank you. Any input is heartily welcomed, especially if either Mr. Cooke or Mr. Caro care to weigh in on the situation. Thanks all, and I hope you carry Lady Luck's favor a little better than I in the future. Cheers, Rick Walo Jr. | ||
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| Re: Playing Between Short/Long Run, Andrew Wells, 24. Apr 2003 19:31 | ||
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| You still should at least try to retain control of the hand incase you get checked to on the flop and no one wants to challenge an all-in move. Your smooth call just invited that steal attempt by the pocket pair. Yes they are huge underdogs, and you got unlucky. But let's see what might have happened if you reraised enough that even if they both call you could push all-in on the flop giving 2:1 odds; that is, enough to make a pot sized bet all-in. If you push about 1/4 of your stack in as a reraise, and someone four bets you all-in you have the best hand. Otherwise if called you have enough to bet pot on the flop which may be what it takes to persuade a flush draw (AKs AQs KQs) to lay down. Yes you could still get bet into all-in on the flop and you cover the bet, but with the reraise you have increased the probability of being able to make the bet yourself. It is harder for someone to call all-in than to push all-in, so you gain. As for reminding yourself, that's one of the reasons you keep records. | ||
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| Re: Playing Between Short/Long Run, Nathaniel Brous, 24. Apr 2003 23:45 | ||
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| It can be difficult to honestly judge a hand when you already know the outcome. Let me just say that I am not in favor of smoothcalling with PR in this situation. Here you called a raise and allowed another in the pot. Is it possible the button would call a small raise with 44? What kind of flop are you hoping for that people will still pay you off with? The flop could have well have been 228 or 229. What would you do in that situation? The same thing I think. "Was my play correct." We all know you made the right decision. The fact that you were correct in your assessment that you were boss on the flop doesn't help you much. The question should be, "should I have been in this position?" There is the poker adage,"Don't go broke in an unraised pot." While this one was raised, I am guessing that it was a relatively insignificant amount. I understand your reluctance to raise big with the aces (preflop) when it has not been helping you to do so. It doesn't mean that raising is not the correct move. When you call here you are limiting your information and decreasing your odds of winning. Your opponents can't be scared of your Aces if they don't have a clue that you have them. So move in preflop and A. Take a small pot or B. Have some poor soul try and get lucky against you. I am not a NL poker champ so I could be off here. - Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: Playing Between Short/Long Run, flintsword, 26. Apr 2003 11:17 | ||
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| Quoting T.J.Cloutier again, if you limp with Aces, you don't get broke with aces. I think the key here is that you do not have enough playing information, period, about your opponents, since you have just been moved to this table. This is NL, you have no read or playing info on you opponents, so a call is a conservative strategy. Stick to the conservative strategy then, ... and get ready to lay them down. Brous has a good comment about the fact the flop could just as easily been 228 or 229, where you are toast unless an ace turns up or floats on the river. In absence of a good read on the all-in, give the raiser the benefit of the doubt and wait for a more cooperative hand and more information on the table. I know this sounds like 20/20 vision hindsight, but in this tournament, the objective is to survive to win and sometimes it means you lay a great hand with good stats for no other reason that the play is not clearly in your favour. | ||
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