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Server Time: 12/2/2008 6:35:27 PM PACIFIC |
 Drowned on the River, john ray, 22. Apr 2003 08:55 | ||
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| this table had myself 2 other mediocre and 1 good player and a school of fish. I had a good nite just avoiding too much trouble with the good player but he did hit me twice. Hand1: I have KhTh BB 4 limpers including my guy . flop 3hJh2d. cks to good guy who bets i call heads up now. turn 9h i ck raise he calls. River 2s fills his pocket33. He made a great hand to kill my flush but did he make a good call on the turn knowing i was flushed Hand2: I have KK on the button fold to my guy who calls ,i raise heads up again flop comes 3d4h7d i bet he calls turn Tc he ck raises. I go ahead and call as i had seen him knocking other guys off thier top pair(maybe i should have reraised). river Jd he bets i call makes his flush A6d. I suppose i shouldn't have called his river bet but I did. I think he made a nice play on the turn as I had basically announced having a big pair and with the draws that were out should i have folded then? Thanks John | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River, Nathaniel Brous, 22. Apr 2003 09:44 | ||
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| comments within on 22. Apr 2003 08:55 john ray wrote: > this table had myself 2 other mediocre and 1 good player and a school of fish. I had a good nite just avoiding too much trouble with the good player but he did hit me twice. Hand1: I have KhTh BB 4 limpers including my guy . flop 3hJh2d. cks to good guy who bets i call heads up now. turn 9h i ck raise he calls. River 2s fills his pocket33. He made a great hand to kill my flush but did he make a good call on the turn knowing i was flushed Yep. He knows exactly where you are and that you are going to pay him off if he makes his boat. > Hand2: I have KK on the button fold to my guy who calls ,i raise heads up again flop comes 3d4h7d i bet he calls turn Tc he ck raises. I go ahead and call as i had seen him knocking other guys off thier top pair(maybe i should have reraised). river Jd he bets i call makes his flush A6d. I suppose i shouldn't have called his river bet but I did. I think he made a nice play on the turn as I had basically announced having a big pair and with the draws that were out should i have folded then? Thanks John Nope. No way I fold on the turn. Sounds like if he had position he would have popped you on the flop. He had a bunch of outs and hit one. It happens. - Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River, stdioh, 22. Apr 2003 09:45 | ||
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| > Hand1: I have KhTh BB 4 limpers including my guy . flop 3hJh2d. cks to good > guy who bets i call heads up now. turn 9h i ck raise he calls. River 2s fills > his pocket33. He made a great hand to kill my flush but did he make a good call > on the turn knowing i was flushed Great question. Let's analize this situation in detail and find out if he made a good call. So preflop there are 5 small bets in the pot. He bets his set and gets you calling so there are now 7 small bets in the pot, or 3.5 big bets. Now you check to him on the turn and he bets (reasonable), but is (ACK!) checkraised. Yup, he knows you have a flush, but there are two more big bets in the pot bringing it to 5.5. Now there is your bet out there so let's figure his pot odds. He stands to win 6.5 bets if he makes his tight, but he can up that to 7.5 via implied odds since he knows that you will call with your flush to a bet on the river...possibly he'll get two off of an overagressive opponent who bets into him. Now lets count his outs: He has 10 cards which help him by either quadding him or pairing the board, assuming that you have the flush without a pair. He has 9 outs if you also have the pair. Of course if you have a bigger set he is toast, but let us assume that he has accurately put you on a flush. Your chances of having the flush with a pair are fairly slim, but you could very well have a 2 as you were in the BB. Lets argue that he does indeed have 10 outs though. If he has all 10 outs then there are 8 cards accounted for that are not his outs (his hand, your flush hand, and the board cards) so there are 44 cards in the deck, of which he needs one of 10. Thus there is a little worse than 1/4 chance that he fills up, but a pot laying him a bare minimum of 6.5:1, and implied to lay him 7.5:1. He's got to draw here. Assuming that you have one of his outs then there are still 9/44 cards that can help him which is still better than a 1/5 chance and worth the 6.5 bets that are already available even with no implied odds. So to make a long story short, it would be absolutely incorrect for him to fold here if he is sure that you have the flush. > Hand2: I have KK on the button fold to my guy who calls ,i raise heads up > again flop comes 3d4h7d i bet he calls turn Tc he ck raises. I go ahead and > call as i had seen him knocking other guys off thier top pair(maybe i should > have reraised). river Jd he bets i call makes his flush A6d. I suppose i > shouldn't have called his river bet but I did. I think he made a nice play on > the turn as I had basically announced having a big pair and with the draws that > were out should i have folded then? > Thanks > John He was really lucky here. He flopped a nut flush draw with a gutshot and his ace was live. Let us again assume that he read you for KK (we'll assume that you are an open book for the sake of argument). He's got 3 ace outs, 4 straight outs, and 8 flush outs (minus the straight out) on the flop. The 15 outs make him a favourite to win heads up, though a slight one. Now is when he should be raising you. Thus he must not have been too sure that you were on KK. If you've got a big ace then three of his outs have evapourated and all he can do is call. So now the turn is a blank, but an overcard to the flop. Why does he checkraise? He's making a play here. He's on a semibluff since there are still lots of ways for him to make his hand. He's hoping that you're sitting on a hand like 88 or 99 and that he can fold you now and not have to draw. If it doesn't work, it doesn't cost him too much expectation, since he has lots of outs. Now he does indeed make his hand. Unfortunately, you have to pay him off here. His checkraise on the turn makes it look like he's holding a hand such as AT which you have beat. His betting was completely in line with a hand like that all the way along, so you really shouldn't be folding your overpair here. Now he could just as well have TJ, the flush, JJ, or a large number of hands - obviously raising is out of the question...he could have been on a set all along and been waiting for the expensive turn for the raise. Essentially it is time for you to put in a crying call and see the hand. So the long and short of it is that both you and your opponent played both of those hands very well IMO and he just happened to come out on top. It *is* a 7-card game, no matter how much we may want it not to be :) | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River, Nathaniel Brous, 22. Apr 2003 09:54 | ||
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| Nice stdioh. However... I gave the cliff notes version and got in first. Hee hee. - Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River -attn stdioh and nathaniel, spk, 22. Apr 2003 10:16 | ||
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| Do you guys play on-line? if so what site? I would love to ge heads up against one of you clowns. | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River -attn stdioh and nathaniel, Nathaniel Brous, 22. Apr 2003 10:26 | ||
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| on 22. Apr 2003 10:16 spk wrote: > Do you guys play on-line? if so what site? I would love to ge heads up against one of you clowns. Hey spk. I will give you the benefit of the doubt and believe you actually care about poker and the people who post here. So keeping this in mind...I apologize if I have given out erroneous information. I really enjoy the friendly atmosphere here at UPF. I am completely open to reading your thoughts on the many poker subjects that come through here. Please feel free to correct me. I am not adverse to learning more about poker.- Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River -attn stdioh and nathaniel, john ray, 22. Apr 2003 11:09 | ||
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| thank you both. I felt fine about both hands, but , I was interested in some thoughts on my opponents play as I know him to be a better player than me. I enjoyed the game because just as in golf better players will improve your game( if they don't kill ya first :) . SPK, these guys help me alot w/ what I'm sure are simple questions to you. I don't mind looking like a Dummy if it pushes me down the line. Sorry, have to pass on heads up for now( maybe someday) John | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River -attn stdioh and nathaniel, spk, 22. Apr 2003 11:33 | ||
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| Let me shed a little light on my posting. I read a posting from studioh requesting that a person stop posting to fill a home game. And since I often post to the site when I need to fill a game I was offended. I posted a response to studioh, and Natheniel responded as well as Studioh. I respect the opinion of everyone on the site including Studioh and Nathaniel who I referred to as clowns. I apologize if I offended anybody and wish to recant my postings, I want to contribute to this site in a positive manner only. As we all know you get a few people arguing and nothing good will come of it. That being said I would still like to go head to head with either Studioh or Nathenial. I play at pokerstars and on occasion plantepoker. | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River -attn stdioh and nathaniel, stdioh, 22. Apr 2003 11:44 | ||
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| Hey...I don't want a misunderstanding so let me clear things up right now. I think that this is an appropriate forum in which to post such game-filling requests. Whether or not the belong in "Poker" or "Not Quite Poker" is anybody's guess. Actually, if there were a seperate section for "Home Game Solicitations" that would probably make everybody's experience better. That said, I'm not against such posts. I just think that the frequency of advertising for that game was getting a little high. When you see the same post reposted day after day it is a bit much IMHO. If you disagree, that's your prerogative. Anyhow, I really enjoy the spirit of congeniality here, so I'm hoping that we don't have to bring this to some big fracas. And indeed, if you want to play heads up some day, it's something that I could be convinced to do, though I should warn you that my heads up nolimit freeze-out play is probably one of the stronger areas of my game. | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River -attn stdioh and nathaniel, noiseboy, 22. Apr 2003 11:50 | ||
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| I think stdioh just thought maybe posting it everyday was a bit much, but hey, if they are gonna be short players, they gotta find some. I've seen the same guy's posts on RGP as well. | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River -attn stdioh and nathaniel, john ray, 22. Apr 2003 15:12 | ||
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| Thanks for clearing that up Spk. I didn't know what that post was about. Hope you will put your 2 cents into my questions also. John | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River -attn stdioh and nathaniel, noiseboy, 22. Apr 2003 11:47 | ||
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| There are no dumb questions in poker, even the simple ones have layers that might not be apparent on the first analysis. Your example illustrates something fairly common, in that it is possible for both a made hand to be correct in betting while the person trying to suck out is also correct in calling. The nice thing is when you are in a multi-way pot, you often have several other players in who are financing the made hand and the draw. | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River -attn stdioh and nathaniel, stdioh, 22. Apr 2003 11:59 | ||
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| > The nice thing is when you are in a multi-way pot, you often have several other players in who are financing > the made hand and the draw. That's nice for the draw, but terrible for the made hand. After all, it is very possible to have the current nuts and be drawing slim. Lets say that the flop is 89T and you're holding JQ - wonderful flop, but what if there's a flush draw out there? No porblems - you're a huge favourite. Now what is somebody is also holding QK? A jack will really hurt you and likewise if somebody has JK a Queen is no good for you. Now what if yet another player is holding TT and hoping to fill up? All of a sudden you need to draw two total blanks in order to win the hand. A flush coming kills you, a paired board is no good, and hitting one of your hole cards ruins things too. In fact you are on the worst kind of draw right now and the best thing you can do is fold out opponents. You want to get rid fof QK and JK by knocking them off their gutshots and if you can find some way to get protection from another player then you could even get rid of a poor flush draw who has no other part of it. If that happens and you get heads up with the set of tens, you're onward to glory as he's now the one drawing to a worse than 1:4 shot on the river. | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River -attn stdioh and nathaniel, noiseboy, 22. Apr 2003 13:37 | ||
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| True, if there are several people in there on other reasonable draws, a made hand can be the underdog to get the money, the example you give illustrates this very well. I was mostly talking about him playing with a "school of fish" as he put it, in which case you will sometimes have a made hand, a good draw, and a bunch of people hanging around that have no business in the hand making it more profitable for the ones who should be there. In this case, it's a moot point because all the "fish" folded and he ended up heads up. | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River -attn stdioh and nathaniel, stdioh, 22. Apr 2003 11:25 | ||
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| Well, I do laud you on your attempts to put your money where your mouth is. I play, from time to time, on ultimatebet ... if you really like, when I'm not so busy next month, we can arrange to play some heads up freeze out sit-n-go's there for $5 a go or some such arrangement. | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River, stdioh, 22. Apr 2003 11:23 | ||
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| heheh...indeed. I started writing mine and when I posted it I saw yours pop in ahead and thought, "Shucks. Now everybody is just going to assume that I'm copying a greater intellect." :) | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River, Nathaniel Brous, 22. Apr 2003 11:29 | ||
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| on 22. Apr 2003 11:23 stdioh wrote: > heheh...indeed. I started writing mine and when I posted it I saw yours pop in ahead and > thought, "Shucks. Now everybody is just going to assume that I'm copying a greater intellect." > :) Not unless you type a couple hundred words a minute, they won't. -Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: Drowned on the River, stdioh, 22. Apr 2003 11:44 | ||
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| About 100, but who's counting :) | ||
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