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Server Time: 2/13/2012 9:10:45 AM PACIFIC |
 Shorn: Re: Hypothetical Situation (thread got too long...), Wren, 16. Apr 2003 11:38 | ||
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| They really need to fix this max number of posts in a thread thing, huh? Anyway... "The only reasoning that I can think of to check the flop and then bet the turn if a blank comes (and the 76h had checked the flop also) is that the double size bet only gives the 76h 2 to 1 on the turn for a call where they actually need 2.93 to 1 to call to continue (15/44). So is the idea save a bet (or two) on the flop in case the turn hits the drawer and then if not, make them make an error by calling without pot odds? Wow, did I really just convince myself of your argument here?? :(" No, this isn't it. First of all, 76h only needs 2:1 on the turn to continue (15/44 = ~1:2, not ~1:3). So 67h still has pot odds, even without a bet on the flop (though marginally so). The reason that 67h wants to make KK pay on the flop is that (a) 67h has the advantage here EV-wise AND (b) (this is the key here) KK cannot turn around on the turn when IT has the advantage and make 67h pay a pot-sized (or bigger) bet for making the pot large. This is where the limit case differs from the pot-limit case. Anyone else have anything to add to this to make it a little more clear? | ||
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| Re: Shorn: Re: Hypothetical Situation (thread got too long...), Schuster, 16. Apr 2003 12:52 | ||
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| Yep too many messages... hehe. In response to this: Schuster: Am I correct in saying that if the game were no limit and the each players stack size were somehow infinite, the Kings could always play this hand profitably? Wren: No. If each player was playing perfectly, KK would check and fold to a very large flop bet made by 67h. There are 15 cards in the deck that make the hand for 67, which leaves 20 cards that do not make the hand. Seeing as how the Kings are favored to have the best hand by the turn, if each player were to have an infinite stack, I would say the best play would be for the kings to check and call, regardless of how big the bet was, then bet an amount on the turn such that 67 does not have odds to draw anymore. More often than not, the kings will have the best hand on the turn. Assuming this logic is correct, the only play for 67 (given infinite stack sizes) is to check the flop right after the kings and hope to win the blinds on the turn. Clearly, 67 must give it up to a bet on the turn. Perhaps to help Shorn's understanding, 67 is a 56% favorite to win the hand on the flop. It's important to make draws pay for their hands, but when the draw is a favorite to win, the draw must make the other hands pay to see if the draw doesn't make it's hand. | ||
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| Re: Shorn: Re: Hypothetical Situation (thread got too long...), shorn, 16. Apr 2003 13:01 | ||
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| OK all. I think i got it now. This is one of those (rare) instances where a draw is the favorite to win it vs. the made hand and therefore must give the free card to save $$ b/c KK doesn't have the best of it. Whew... | ||
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| Re: Shorn: Re: Hypothetical Situation (thread got too long...), Snorbolus, 18. Apr 2003 11:13 | ||
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| I took this quote from Steve Badger's website. It seems relevant to this thread: "Do not let yourself be confused by irrelevant concepts. What matters in any form of poker, but particularly in Omaha, is the probability of winning -- not who is temporarily in the lead." Snorbolus | ||
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| Re: Shorn: Re: Hypothetical Situation (thread got too long...), Wren, 16. Apr 2003 13:06 | ||
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| In the NL example, what I should have said instead of "making a bet large enough" was "pushing all-in". In practicality, there is no such thing as an "infinite" stack. However, it is quite feasible for both players' stacks to be larger enough so that the KK no longer has odds to call an all-in bet on the flop. For example: A heads up tournament with blinds of 10-20 and 2 players with stacks of 1000 each. Say preflop the small blind limps, and the flop comes as discussed. If 67h goes all-in here, KK does not have odds to call. (In this example, KK is losing an average of T-306 to call here). However, with stacks of 100 each, KK is winning an average of T98, therefore should call here. The important points are that (a) 67h must get all-in (or close to all-in) on the flop and (b) The bet must be large enough so that KK does not have pot odds to call. | ||
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