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Server Time: 10/11/2008 11:00:22 PM PACIFIC |
 $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, 4 POKER, 14. Apr 2003 21:49 | ||
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| My friend was playing in a 4 handed POT LIMIT hold-em game in Binion's Horseshoe in Tunica ,Mississippi. My friend(we'll call him Harry), had ten thousand dollars on the table. After back and fourth play for about an hour and a half, Harry was about even. Harry thought he was perceived as a tight, aggressive player. The other players in the game; a farmer wearing his over-alls, and two local pro's. One pro was making all the right moves and connecting on his cards. The second pro was having a bad night and was on tilt. The farmer seemed to be going all-in practically every other hand. Harry picked up AQ of diamonds on the button. The farmer was under the gun and folded. Leaving the pro on tilt in the small blind, and the other pro in the big blind. The blinds were 25-50. Harry makes the bet $300 to go, and is called by both blinds. The flop comes Jd, 10d, 3s. (giving Harry a royal flush draw including two overs). Both blinds check the flop, Harry bets $900. The small blind folds and the big blind makes it $1,800. Harry calls the flop. The turn brought the 2c.The big blind (the pro making all the right moves) makes it $2,000 to Harry. What is Harry's correct course of action? All reply's welcomed... 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Schuster, 14. Apr 2003 22:54 | ||
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| Harry has 10 outs to the nuts as I see it, 4 kings and 6 other diamonds. 2d and 3d aren't counted for obvious reasons. At the time of the $2000 bet, the pot is paying him 2.286 to 1. Odds of hitting 10 outs on the river are 2.860 to 1. This isn't hard to figure, of course, but the reference is helpful. That said, so much of this depends on what the pro might have, and how accurate his read on Harry was. If the pro knows Harry's hand, Harry really has no choice but to fold. If there's some doubt, and the pro will pay him off even a little bit if he hits (probably more likely if the king falls than a diamond) then I'd say call. I don't think there can be a concrete answer without knowing more about the pro, but on the information given, I'd say muck. Always better to play the math when there is not much else to go on. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, shorn, 15. Apr 2003 06:20 | ||
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| My math may be wrong here, but it appears to me that the odds of hitting one of his 10 outs to the nuts on the river is 3.6 to 1 (46 unseen cards, 10 help, 36 do not). With these odds, Harry has a clear fold as the pot is not laying him the proper odds (1.8 to 1). There is no hand that the pro can realistically have that Harry can beat and based on the betting, it is possible that the pro is holding one or two of harry's outs (KK, AK with the K of diamonds). I think (unfortunately for Harry) that this is a clear fold. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Schuster, 15. Apr 2003 13:12 | ||
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| Gah! I goofed the math again! I need to stop doing it late at night! Thanks Shorn. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, shorn, 15. Apr 2003 13:20 | ||
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| on 15. Apr 2003 13:12 Schuster wrote: > Gah! I goofed the math again! I need to stop doing it late at night! Thanks Shorn. > No biggie. Just don't do it when YOU are pondering the call! :) | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, chasepoker, 16. Apr 2003 05:14 | ||
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| Call me thick but do the 2d and 3d really not count as outs? Would the other guy be playing the cards that hit the full house with the pre flop raise ? If someone could explain to my tiny brain i would appreciate ! > Harry has 10 outs to the nuts as I see it, 4 kings and 6 other diamonds. 2d and 3d > aren't counted for obvious reasons. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, 4 POKER, 16. Apr 2003 05:46 | ||
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| 2on 16. Apr 2003 05:14 chasepoker wrote: > Call me thick but do the 2d and 3d really not count as outs? Would the other guy be > playing the cards that hit the full house with the pre flop raise ? > > If someone could explain to my tiny brain i would appreciate ! > > > Harry has 10 outs to the nuts as I see it, 4 kings and 6 other diamonds. 2d and 3d > > aren't counted for obvious reasons. What this person is trying to say is- Without anyone knowing what cards this pro is holding, Harry has 10 SAFE cards to hit for the nuts; because if the Pro did happen to flop a set, (JJ OR 10-10)and the board reads Jd,10d, 3s, 2c, if the 3 of diamonds or the 2 of diamonds come up on the last card that would give the PRO a Full House- now beating the Flush that Harry makes. 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, chasepoker, 16. Apr 2003 05:55 | ||
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| Yup that makes complete sense...too much sun over here in England ! | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, 4 POKER, 16. Apr 2003 06:16 | ||
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| on 16. Apr 2003 05:55 chasepoker wrote: > Yup that makes complete sense...too much sun over here in England That's funny !! I'm glad it helped anyway. 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Rolf Slotboom, 15. Apr 2003 07:28 | ||
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| Well, it depends upon the stack size of his opponent as well, because if he thinks his opponent might be in there with one pair only, then a pot-size raise MIGHT be considered- to make him lay down the best hand at the moment, while still having outs if called. Important here is the EXACT playing characteristic of his opponent, and how this player views Harry. BTW, if I'm not mistaken, the odds for Harry are NOT 1.8 to 1, as stated in one of the replies. There is $1800+ $1800 + $900= $4500 in the pot already, with his opponent betting $2000 at him. Plus, if his opponent still has money left, there is the question of implied odds: will he be able to make money if he makes his hand, and if so how much? (This is VERY important when contemplating a call). Curious to know what Harry did, what he was up against and how the pot ended, Rolf. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, shorn, 15. Apr 2003 07:36 | ||
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| on 15. Apr 2003 07:28 Rolf Slotboom wrote: > Well, it depends upon the stack size of his opponent as well, because if he thinks > his opponent might be in there with one pair only, then a pot-size raise MIGHT be > considered- to make him lay down the best hand at the moment, while still having outs > if called. Important here is the EXACT playing characteristic of his opponent, and > how this player views Harry. BTW, if I'm not mistaken, the odds for Harry are NOT 1.8 > to 1, as stated in one of the replies. There is $1800+ $1800 + $900= $4500 in the pot > already, with his opponent betting $2000 at him. Plus, if his opponent still has > money left, there is the question of implied odds: will he be able to make money if > he makes his hand, and if so how much? (This is VERY important when contemplating a > call). Curious to know what Harry did, what he was up against and how the pot > ended, > Rolf. Good catch Rolf. There was $4500 in the pot at the time. I had forgotten that Harry called the extra $900 on the flop. Implied odds are very important here as to whether the opponent will call or not. I would think he would call with two-pair or a set other than in the Kc falls making both the str8 and Royal. Great to have your input though. I was curious as to what Harry did too and how it played out. Steve | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Andrew Wells, 15. Apr 2003 07:47 | ||
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| Why the dealer didn't size down Harry's preflop bet or why both pro's allowed it is curious. Since you said this opponent was making all the right moves and connecting, I'm going to assume he has Harry's stack covered. If he has a set, it's equally likely to be tens rather than jacks. He could also have an overpair, probably kings but possibly aces. Harry should push all-in on the turn. He has a real possibility of getting the pro to lay down any overpair. Even though the farmer has been giving enough action that Harry might recover from a fold here, who knows when the action player is going to leave? If he gets called, he may still catch the nuts to double up. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, shorn, 15. Apr 2003 08:02 | ||
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| That's a very aggressive play with a draw, but it may work. I think you need an exceptional read on the pro to make that play (that he does have an overpair instead of a set), and you need to be sure that he will lay down his overpair. I think going all-in here you are taking the worst of it and unless the situation is perfect, I think a fold is the better play. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Andrew Wells, 15. Apr 2003 08:32 | ||
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| Can't be sure from the betting whether it's a set or overpair, but it's twice as likely it's AA KK or QQ rather than JJ or TT. The pro should assume Harry has a set after calling the flop checkraise, and going all-in on the turn. Harry's been playing with a tight image so what can the pro think holding AA, that Harry is making a move with KK? I think overall, whatever the pro is holding that Harry has about a 60% chance to win it right there if he goes all-in. That combined with 10 outs if he's called by a set looks like enough. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Mark, 15. Apr 2003 08:36 | ||
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| I like the all-in on the turn if Harry has a large stack. Calling is too weak as it gives away his hand and the pro could have easily been making a move on the flop. Alot depends on the pro's style and harry's image. Was Harry a rock or super aggressive? How did the pro play? Harry's flop bet doesn't mean much as he raised pre-flop and is probably just following it up on the flop. The pro's turn bet may or may not mean anything, depending on what type of a player he is. He may read Harry for a draw and be tyring to make him lay it down. I think this situation is very style/image dependant, but unless the pro is a rock, if Harry has a large stack he should probably go all-in. If he gets called he has 9 outs to the nut flush, 4 kings for a str8, and 6 pairing cards Mark | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Andrew Wells, 15. Apr 2003 08:45 | ||
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| Harry thinks he has a tight image, and also had about 10K at the start of the hand. The all-in move on the turn is nearly a maximum raise, and also has some psychological advantage in being such. His opponent has been beating up on this game, and can presumably make a lay down without seriously affecting his stack. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, stdioh, 15. Apr 2003 08:54 | ||
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| You are presuming here that the opponent is not holding JJ which is a call for any bet to him. Bluffs only work when you opponent is not holding the nuts. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Andrew Wells, 15. Apr 2003 08:58 | ||
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| I have no idea if he has AA KK QQ JJ or TT, or even JTs. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, shorn, 15. Apr 2003 09:01 | ||
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| on 15. Apr 2003 08:58 Andrew Wells wrote: > I have no idea if he has AA KK QQ JJ or TT, or even JTs. With no clue, how good are your chances of getting him to lay down his hand? A huge bet here without a great read is quite a costly error if you asked me. If he had AA, KK, or QQ, he presumably would have re-raised re-flop to try and isolate someone (OK, maybe not with AA, but with KK and QQ I would think so). So, those hands are less likely than JJ or TT which he more likely would call with pre-flop. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, stdioh, 15. Apr 2003 10:23 | ||
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| I'd say that JJ and TT look like the most likely holdings and you have to expect a call on either of those. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Andrew Wells, 15. Apr 2003 10:33 | ||
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| I don't see it that way. At this high a level and especially shorthanded, KK or QQ could just as readily call out of the blind and play for the aggressor to bet on the flop. Sometimes it's too early to reraise before the flop and if I was looking for a big score, I'd wait to see if there was an overcard on the flop. I don't play this high however. Regardless there's a lot more pressure on someone to call a large all-in raise, than there is to make the move in the first place. It's tough enough to call with top two pair facing that play, let alone an overpair. There's 4500 in the pot on the turn, so why does the pro just bet enough to barely take away odds from possible hands that can beat him? That seems just a bit too risky even with top set. That pot is big even for this game, and it would seem to be right for a pot sized bet. Could it be that he's actually concerned that if he goes pot, that Harry must play all-in holding a set? | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, shorn, 15. Apr 2003 11:26 | ||
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| "Could it be that he's actually concerned that if he goes pot, that Harry must play all-in holding a set?" I am not sure I understand this quote from your post. I agree that at $4500, the pot is already big here. However, perhaps he felt that he couldn't get Harry to lay down his draw no matter what, but he wasn't comfortable with a pot-sized bet (which tends to favor TT or JT) with his holding. So, he bet enough to make Harry make a mistake to draw and if Harry went all-in, then he hadn't committed himself to a loser with 1 to 4 outs on the river. I will admit that NL is not my forte, so I may be simplifying things here, but I still thing that Harry should fold based on the previosu action. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, 4 POKER, 15. Apr 2003 15:47 | ||
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| GREAT RESPONSES EVERYONE! All of your conclusions and well-calculated theories to how this particular hand could have been played were well thought out, IMO. When playing hold-em, especially no limit and pot limit, you must have the ability to really be able to put your opponent on a certain hand. Your reading skills are crucial in this game. knowing the correct odds someone is laying you are also very important. If anyone's interested... The hand played out as followed: My friend Harry did not improve his hand. He lost the pot. He flat called the bet on the turn. The river brought no improvement. (an off-suit blank) The pro checked, Harry checked. The pro flips up the J-8 off-suit. Would you have called a raise with J-8 off-suit for a max raise in a N/L game? Maybe the pro had a tremendous feel for the game and was able to put Harry on a draw rather then a higher holding. Just something to think about... Again, Great posts!!! 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Andrew Wells, 15. Apr 2003 19:06 | ||
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| If Harry has a set of jacks or tens he should come over the top (all-in if possible) on the turn. Harry could easily have such a hand from the betting if the pro does not. If the pro does not have a set why should he risk more than enough to take away odds from the big draws? If the pro has top two and Harry moves all-in then it's a very tough decision, otherwise as you say he can get away from it without a set. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Mark, 15. Apr 2003 09:07 | ||
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| on 15. Apr 2003 08:54 stdioh wrote: > You are presuming here that the opponent is not holding JJ which is a call for any bet to him. > Bluffs only work when you opponent is not holding the nuts. Harry is only semi bluffing with a VERY strong (drawing) hand. "you can't make money in NLH if you are allways afraid of the nuts" - Doyle Brunson the pro could easily have a pair, or more likely a pair with and ace kicker. he could also have a draw or be reading harry for a draw. If the pro was making alot of moves, he doesn't need to have anything to make those bets. harry's call on the flop said he was weak or drawing. When a blank comes on the turn, the pro knows he can bet again and probably take down the pot. The pro only bet 2/5 the pot on the turn expecting Harry to fold because he showed weakness on the flop and the blank on the turn could not have helped him. if the pro had a strong hand had he would probably bet the pot to kill any pot odds Harry had to draw for and because he wouldn't mind being re-raised with a made hand. if harry pairs his hole cards, he'll probably win the pot. mark | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Andrew Wells, 15. Apr 2003 19:00 | ||
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| That's sort of the way I feel about it. But I don't consider the overcards pairing as outs. I'd play a set of jacks or tens here in Harry's spot the same way up until the turn, trapping. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, Mark, 15. Apr 2003 08:57 | ||
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| after thinking more about this situation, going all-in is diffucult to do because its a pot limit game (a little oversight).. i think calling that flop is pretty weak, its a fold or pot size bet situation. Again it depends on the pro, but i lean heavily towards a pot size bet on the flop. By just calling you give away alot of information, so if you do make a flush you won't get anymore action. Again harry had 16 outs, probably 13 of them are good. mark | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, stdioh, 15. Apr 2003 08:51 | ||
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| Great post 4 POKER. First of all, I think it was a mistake to bet on the come here. The board is in the playing zone, so the chances of taking the pot right then and there are slim and none. This takes value off. Also with a flush draw plus a gut shot, you're still not a 50%+ favourite to win the hand at this point. Also, you should know that if you are called your chances of winning if you hit an overcard are slim. Thus I would call that a mistake. Now the pot is not laying you odds and you are being hyper-agressed. Chances, like I said, are slim and none that your opponent is holding only 1 pair. He might be on TJ suited for 2 pair, but more likely he's on a set, probably jacks. So right there, he's got redraws if you make your flush and pair the board. You're also probably going to be unable to fold him off his hand if you move all in as Rolf contemplated - in this case I would call going all in a decidedly bad move, though I think that any player who doesn't at least consider an all-in is not thinking the hand through well enough. So now it comes down to call or fold. Well, the pot is not laying you odds right now, so if you are going to call then you need to be pretty sure that you have the implied odds. Well, we've put him on a good hand, so he'll definitely call an underbet, but if we have the nuts we can also be fairly sure that he won't call a big bet - we're not playing with an idiot here and what will he put us on if we just call here, but a draw to at least an overflush, likely with at least a gutshot. Thus I would say that the implied odds for this hand are very poor. Thus without being able to look the man in the eyes, bore a hole in him and see what his cards definitely are, I would make a fold here, cry about it a little, and eat some ice cream. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, shorn, 15. Apr 2003 08:58 | ||
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| I like the ice cream ending. I am not saying that I wouldn't consider an all-in raise here...in fact, I think the options in order would be fold, all-in, call in that order. I just think (and agree with you stdioh) that the implied odds aren't there for the draw and if you only call, you are definitely taking the worst of it. Also, only calling should clue him in to where you stand so that he can play his hand perfectly on the river, never a good combination even when you hit. Sure, you might win the hand, but you lose in FTOP space. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, stdioh, 15. Apr 2003 10:25 | ||
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| Yup. I think you summarize it just right. Fold, all-in, call, in that order. | ||
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| Re: $25.00-50.00 POT LIMIT HOLD-EM, ryan, 16. Apr 2003 13:34 | ||
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| Seems like the Big Blind is either holding J 10 suited or Tens in the hole wishing to improve his straight draw or the Tens on a flop but instead caught 2 top pairs or a Trip Tens on the board from the flop. BB figures since Harry opened with $300 from the gun, BB probably puts harry at a A K suited / unsuited and since Harry has not call BB reraise on the turn card. BB think Harry needs the emergency River card to beat him. BB already has a made hand and knows he has a possiblity if filling up which beats any flushes so BB feels he's on the driver seat and let Harry sweated out. If Harry was a aggressive player with already having $2100 on the fifth street, he'll probably call BB's $2000. But if Harry is methodical player, he's should note that with 4 diamonds already out and God knows how many got trashed before the flop, Harry is maybe looking at roughly or maybe 4.5 % of hitting another diamond on the river. So if it was me since lean more towards being a methodical player.. I wouldn't chase a made hand. Of course...lot of you might disagree with me but..You're input or criticism will be taken constructively. | ||
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