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Server Time: 10/6/2008 5:07:58 PM PACIFIC |
 Positive Expectation, Negative Result, Alfonse, 14. Apr 2003 16:14 | ||
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| Roy: Can you expand on this comment in your latest article: "the recurring sum of the volume bet multiplied by the edge (positive or negative) is the key to poker. You want to maximize your expectation by adding to your recurring field from each individual situation, so that over time, you make the sum as large a number as possible." Using a mathematical example would be helpful. Thanks. | ||
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| Re: Positive Expectation, Negative Result, Easy E, 14. Apr 2003 19:52 | ||
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| = The more you bet with the best of it, the more you will make | ||
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| Re: Positive Expectation, Negative Result, stdioh, 15. Apr 2003 09:31 | ||
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| Multiply your chances of winning the hand (using all available information) by the amount of money you stand to win. Act in such a manner that the result is maximized. | ||
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| Re: Positive Expectation, Negative Result, JunglingS, 18. Apr 2003 08:25 | ||
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| First, you have to be able to understand expectation mathematically. So I offer this simplistic example based on dice. You bet with someone that when you roll a single die, you will hit either 1 or 6. For every dollar you bet, he will pay you 10 if you make it. So, there are 2 possible outcomes, either (a) you roll 1 or 6 and win ten dollars, or (b) you roll 2, 3, 4, or 5 and lose one dollar. Line this up mathematically, and you get: Outcome a - Probability: .33 Return: +10 Outcome b - Probability: .66 Return: -1 So, to figure the expectation on this bet, use the formula: E = P(1)R(1) + P(2)R(2) + . . . + P(n)R(n) In this example that is: Expectation = (.33 * 10) + (.66 * -1) = 2.64 So your expectation on this bet is $2.64 for every dollar you bet. If you are given this opportunity 100 times (by a real idiot, I assume), and you bet $1 each time, you can expect to make a profit of $264 (1* 2.64 * 100). However, if you bet $100 each time, you can expect to make $26,400 (100 * 2.64 * 100)!! That is what positive expectation is all about! | ||
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