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Server Time: 8/30/2008 2:46:03 AM PACIFIC |
 middle set,2 plrs,flush board?, jdsalinger, 9. Apr 2003 21:03 | ||
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| online at paradise 15/30. 1 limper I raise from the cutoff with 88 the BB calls and the flop comes 289 spades. The BB bets, the limper cold calls, I raise, BB reraises and now the limper caps it. Now I know I'm up against 2 flushs. The turn brings a 7 blank. BB checks, limper bets and now I must consider raising or calling. 2 to 1 chance to hit a boat or better from the flop but with the blank turn my chances have taken a big drop. I want to raise but I know I will most likely get reraised by the limper and I have to keep the BB with a smaller flush in. What is the correct play here? I also have to keep in mind that paradise has a propensity to pair the board more that in real life. (I don't have empirical evidence but it happens far to often to have big hands vs. big hands | ||
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| Re: middle set,2 plrs,flush board?, Andrew Wells, 9. Apr 2003 21:11 | ||
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| Call, but note that you could also be up against top or bottom set from the limp/backraiser. | ||
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| Re: middle set,2 plrs,flush board?, jdsalinger, 9. Apr 2003 21:17 | ||
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| someone may have bottom set but at the time I don't put the limper on 99. I've seen him raise from MP with 55 I doubt he is limping in with 99. | ||
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| Re: middle set,2 plrs,flush board?, Andrew Wells, 9. Apr 2003 21:42 | ||
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| Probably not a pocket pair then from middle position, but could also be varying his play. The important thing is that you're beat right now, and it is impossible to buy this pot. Since you have to catch, by all means let the big blind come in behind you. | ||
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| Re: middle set,2 plrs,flush board?, Schuster, 9. Apr 2003 21:15 | ||
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| > I also have to keep in mind that paradise > has a propensity to pair the board more that in real life. (I don't have > empirical evidence but it happens far to often to have big hands vs. big hands This is the kind of thing I don't like to think about. I don't play much at paradise, but without empirical evidence, you're letting perceived results affect your play. Winning poker is all about correct plays based on mathematics and reads, not that you think the board pairs more often at one place than another. Don't let past results alter your thought process. That said, I say just call. If you raise, you're likely to drive the big blind out, and get reraised. If you make your hand, you take the money, and if not, you've lost less. You're less than 2:1 to make your hand, and the best you can expect from any money you put in on the turn is 2:1, only 1:1 if the big blind folds. The limper seems pretty happy with his hand, you're not likely to fold him out. Why build a monster pot when you're a dog to win it? Lee | ||
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| Re:few more variables to this, jdsalinger, 9. Apr 2003 21:46 | ||
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| from what I saw the SB would not be able to lay down his smaller flush which I put him on or there is the outside chance he has the A flush draw so he would most likely call if I raise on the turn in both scenarios. Since I have position I'm more inclined to raise the turn and if the limper doesn't have the nuts he will check on the river and I can check with him, a much better alternative to calling the turn and river. | ||
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| Re: Re:few more variables to this, Schuster, 9. Apr 2003 21:58 | ||
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| >Since I have position I'm more > inclined to raise the turn and if the limper doesn't have the nuts he will check on > the river and I can check with him, a much better alternative to calling the turn and > river. I'm not so sure that is the better alternative. You're costing yourself the same number of bets, but only one choice leaves you open to a reraise, and also costs you more bets if you don't make your hand. However, if you make your hand and the limper does have the nut flush, he may very well bet into you on the river, in which case you can pop him then. I doubt he'd lay it down with a pot that big. Just my thoughts. Lee | ||
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| Re: Re:few more variables to this, Andrew Wells, 9. Apr 2003 22:19 | ||
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| You could also still get checkraised by the blind, and even reraised by the middle position player again. I think it's better to play this straightforwardly and just call when both your opponents are fast to this board. I just don't see a raise on the turn slowing both of them down in this spot. | ||
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| Re: Re:few more variables to this, shorn, 10. Apr 2003 05:01 | ||
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| I agree. You definitely have to call but based on the previous action, there is no way you will get the BB to fold by raising, so that (IMHO) would be the less optimal play. If it were a live game and you could have caught a reaction (frustrated, negative) from the BB when the turn came and the limper bet, then maybe, but online this is a part of the game that is missing. | ||
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| Re: middle set,2 plrs,flush board?, stdioh, 10. Apr 2003 08:10 | ||
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| This is a really dangerous situation. Yes, you have a lot of outs to tighten up, but there are a few problems. 1) it is unlikely, but possible that you are facing an opponent with 99 who will make a better tight and nail you to the wall when your hand improves and you start raising. 2) It is possible that you are facing another set or 2 pair and that they have robbed you of your outs so you are drawing a lot thinner than you think. 3) It is possible that a flush player has redraws to a straight flush and will beat your tight. The first three concerns are not that major, but the fourth one is killer. 4) It is possible that both players have flushes, but are too stupid to back off and end up in a raising war in which you get dragged along...that beats the bejesus out of your pot odds. Now I would say that a raise is out of the question here. Calling is ok, but only if you expect them to settle down. You don't want to be sucked in to a cap on the turn. And if a 9 comes to give you tight, don't be too agressive with it. The best thing that can happen for you is that the turn and river pair eachother since that makes you safe from everything except 99. And of course you don't want a straight flush to come so something like kings would be lovely. | ||
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