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Server Time: 8/30/2008 6:27:52 AM PACIFIC |
 Poker Odds, Fairfax, 9. Apr 2003 01:26 | ||
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| What are the odds of making quads if you hold a pair preflop and will go to the river? Thank you | ||
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| Re: Poker Odds, stdioh, 9. Apr 2003 07:27 | ||
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| on 9. Apr 2003 01:26 Fairfax wrote: > What are the odds of making quads if you hold a pair preflop and will go to the > river? > Thank you Roughly 1/136 that you'll make quads. There's a 1/5 chance that you'll eventually make trips (actually 1/4.8) Really you shouldn't be too concerned about making quads...it doesn't happen often enough to care about and when it does, it becomes apparent by betting patters. (ie if you are holding top tight and get 4-bet you're either playing a total idiot or he has quads). | ||
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| Re: Poker Odds, Fairfax, 9. Apr 2003 13:19 | ||
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| Thank you on your response. It is for bad beat jackpots. Would I be correct in assuming then for me to have quads AND for another person to have them would be (1/139)*(1/139) or or 1/19321? | ||
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| Re: Poker Odds, stdioh, 9. Apr 2003 14:00 | ||
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| Actually, it's a lot less likely than that. Since you have quads, he has less cards in the deck with which to make his quads, so it is *more* likely for him to get them than that...BUT - and here's the crux of the biscuit - in a flop game for two players to have quads, you need to have a double-paired board. So you could assume that the board is double paired ((51-3)/51*(50-6)/50*9/49*6/48 = ~ 1/50 Then the chance of you having the case low quads and your opponent having the case high quads is: 4/(perm(47,44)) which is 1/1070190 and there is an equal chance of you having the high quads and him having the low. So that chance of having a holdem hand where two players make quads is 1 : 2,197,250 - so on the whole it should happen every 2.19 million hands dealt. To put that in perspective, let us assume that a cardroom has 20 tables and all of them are going around the clock at 35 hands per hour. Then you should have about 3 instances of this hapening per year. I hope that helps some :) | ||
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| Re: Poker Odds, Fairfax, 9. Apr 2003 16:05 | ||
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| Wow no wonder bad beat jackpots get so big. But assuming you already have a pair doesn,t it come down in odds some? | ||
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| Re: Poker Odds, stdioh, 10. Apr 2003 08:50 | ||
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| It comes down marginally. You have a pair 1/17 hands. Thus multiply by 17 and you get the chance that you have quads, an opponent has quads, given that you started with a pair. If you're looking for advice as to when you should play your pair for the jackpot when the hand would otherwise dictate that you fold it, *don't* do it. Jackpots are almost never worth it until a lot has happened first. I'd say that the only exception here would be when you have a pocket pair making a tight and your opponent has quads and shows them to you. Now you have 1 out to quads yourself, but there is a big bad beat jackpot there. It would deinitley then be worth the one bet to see another card. ... in this highly hypothetical situation. Let me put it another way. The speakeasy in Kitchener has a straighflush/royal flush jackpot. If you are holding two royal cards then you have a 1/2000 chance of making a royal flush. If the jackpot is at $2000 and the game is 3/6, then your equity in the jackpot is currently $1. Now lets say that your cards are KT-suited and you are on the puck. UTG riases, UTG+1 reraises, and it is folded to you. Do you really want to play KT suited to three bets, knowing that it'll be three handed and your hand will almost certainly be dominated? NO. In fact, chances are good that another one of the royal cards you need is in one of their hands too. So you muck them and don't worry about it. | ||
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| Re: Poker Odds, Fairfax, 10. Apr 2003 15:41 | ||
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| Thank you for your time and knowledge, and yes it was for info. on when to play a small pair I would normally not play. Station Casinos now offers 35K to have quads beat. I thought that was not enough but did not want to make a big mistake, as otherwise I play fairly well. I guess if I am to get quads beat it will be a large pair to start with. Thank youJ | ||
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