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Server Time: 9/6/2008 4:07:15 PM PACIFIC |
 How long?, Schuster, 1. Apr 2003 21:17 | ||
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| Statisically speaking, how many hours must one play to be sure that the calculated BB/hour figure is reasonably accurate? This can be either mathematically, or from your own personal experience. I'm just trying to ballpark it here. The reason I ask is that I've been beating the 0.50/1 and the 1/2 games for a little over 2 BB/hour since I started keeping detailed records. Of course, there are tons and tons of terrible players at these limits, but I'd like to know where I stand and maybe consider moving up in limits. Also, I wouldn't expect to keep the same 2 BB/hour figure once I do move up, of course. Just beating the 2/4 for a marginal amount would be more than fine. Thanks in advance! | ||
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| Re: How long?, Piers Majestyk, 1. Apr 2003 21:59 | ||
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| Not really anything scientific but I would estimate that after 20 K hands at a particular level you should have a pretty good idea of where you stand. | ||
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| Re: How long?, Andrew Wells, 2. Apr 2003 07:10 | ||
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| It may depend on your style of play. If your variance is +- 10 BB/hr. then 1000 hours should give you some accuracy to within 5%. I'm no statistician, but this does give you a rough idea of the large sample size involved. You should also weight the more recent results. The last 200 hours should be more significant than the first; compensate for the experience factor over time. If you are already very experienced with a particular form of poker, then 500 hours at a different limit should suffice. | ||
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| Re: How long?, Wren, 2. Apr 2003 07:24 | ||
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| Also remember that you get in close to twice as many hands/hour online as you do in a brick and mortar casino, so your win rate should settle approximately twice as fast. | ||
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| Re: How long?, stdioh, 2. Apr 2003 08:12 | ||
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| on 1. Apr 2003 21:17 Schuster wrote: > Statisically speaking, how many hours must one play to be sure that the > calculated BB/hour figure is reasonably accurate? This can be either > mathematically, or from your own personal experience. I'm just trying to > ballpark it here. > > The reason I ask is that I've been beating the 0.50/1 and the 1/2 games for a > little over 2 BB/hour since I started keeping detailed records. Of course, > there are tons and tons of terrible players at these limits, but I'd like to > know where I stand and maybe consider moving up in limits. Also, I wouldn't > expect to keep the same 2 BB/hour figure once I do move up, of course. Just > beating the 2/4 for a marginal amount would be more than fine. Thanks in > advance! If you put in 500 hours then you should know +- 1 BB, roughly. 1000 hours and you should know within 2/3 BB. At least this is what somebody told me...I was never all that good in my statistics classes. As Wren points out, hands are much faster online, so this can probably be cut in half. | ||
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| Re: How long?, Risky Business, 2. Apr 2003 08:18 | ||
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| I just considered a move up as well, then thought better of it. Though I'm doing fine at this level, I'm relatively new. My decision was based on the profitability of these smaller tables, versus larger tables with better players. I'd rather have a 'seemingly' predictable course to follow, rather than jump to a new level so soon. The tables will always be there, so unless your bankroll is secure for a number of bad sessions at the beginning, why take the jump? Good luck in your decision | ||
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| Re: How long?, stdioh, 2. Apr 2003 14:25 | ||
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| on 2. Apr 2003 08:18 Risky Business wrote: > I just considered a move up as well, then thought better of it. Though I'm doing > fine at this level, I'm relatively new. My decision was based on the profitability > of these smaller tables, versus larger tables with better players. I'd rather have a > 'seemingly' predictable course to follow, rather than jump to a new level so soon. > The tables will always be there, so unless your bankroll is secure for a number of > bad sessions at the beginning, why take the jump? > > Good luck in your decision Indeed, if you are at a small table with terrible players and a big rake, it is very hard to earn much profit at all, but it is also very hard to lose money there. Moving up eventually should be a goal, but if there's any doubt in your mind as to whether you can beat the higher table, then moving up is probably not a good idea. | ||
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| Re: How long?, Roy Cooke, 2. Apr 2003 16:46 | ||
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| Hi Schuster 2000 hours is a reasonable sample....but 4000 would be more accurate. I understand that is a lot of testing. Two big bets an hour is reasonable playing weak competition. As you move up that HR should slow down a little but expert players can make over a bet an hour in games as high as 30-60. Roy Cooke on 1. Apr 2003 21:17 Schuster wrote: > Statisically speaking, how many hours must one play to be sure that the > calculated BB/hour figure is reasonably accurate? This can be either > mathematically, or from your own personal experience. I'm just trying to > ballpark it here. > > The reason I ask is that I've been beating the 0.50/1 and the 1/2 games for a > little over 2 BB/hour since I started keeping detailed records. Of course, > there are tons and tons of terrible players at these limits, but I'd like to > know where I stand and maybe consider moving up in limits. Also, I wouldn't > expect to keep the same 2 BB/hour figure once I do move up, of course. Just > beating the 2/4 for a marginal amount would be more than fine. Thanks in > advance! | ||
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