|
||
|
||
|
Server Time: 10/11/2008 1:08:12 PM PACIFIC |
 KK vs. 3 other all-ins early in NL tourney, SoCalPat, 20. Mar 2003 17:29 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| It's a $5 NL tournament on Paradise. I've played in several of these low-limit tournaments, and am rarely impressed with the play going on here. By no means do I think I'm great, but I'm always amazed at the lack of discipline in these tournaments, especially the short stacks. Anyway ... It's the second hand, so everyone is pretty much at their original stack of 1000. MP+1 calls for $15, as does MP+2. A late position player raises for $100 and I raise for $200. MP+1 goes all-in, as do MP+2 and the late position raiser. They can't all have AA, I figure, so I jump in as well. Flop is Axx, with nothing coming on the turn or river. Amazingly, my KK holds up and I triple up two hands in the tournament. Although I suffer one bad beat to temporarily lose the chip lead (my 33 turns into a set on the flop, but my opponent holding JJ catches a runner-runner for a straight), I go on to win the tournament. I realize I was fortunate that no one was holding an A, but was my thinking correct when I went all-in? At that stage, only AA beats me, and given that three went all-in, I figured at worst, I was up against was AK or QQ. MP+1 was holding KQo, the others mucked. Should I do this move again if a similar opportunity presents itself? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: KK vs. 3 other all-ins early in NL tourney, Andrew Wells, 20. Mar 2003 20:18 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Very interesting question, I'm not at all sure what I would do. My inclination would be to let go of the hand and not risk getting knocked out by someone with an ace that catches. It sure is tempting to try to get a commanding lead early, but against these types of players it might be better to let some of them get busted out first. I could be way off base on this one. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: KK vs. 3 other all-ins early in NL tourney, Paul Stine, 20. Mar 2003 21:19 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 20. Mar 2003 17:29 SoCalPat wrote: > It's a $5 NL tournament on Paradise. I've played in several of these low-limit > tournaments, and am rarely impressed with the play going on here. By no means do > I think I'm great, but I'm always amazed at the lack of discipline in these > tournaments, especially the short stacks. > > Anyway ... > > It's the second hand, so everyone is pretty much at their original stack of > 1000. MP+1 calls for $15, as does MP+2. A late position player raises for $100 > and I raise for $200. > > MP+1 goes all-in, as do MP+2 and the late position raiser. They can't all have > AA, I figure, so I jump in as well. > > Flop is Axx, with nothing coming on the turn or river. Amazingly, my KK holds > up and I triple up two hands in the tournament. Although I suffer one bad beat > to temporarily lose the chip lead (my 33 turns into a set on the flop, but my > opponent holding JJ catches a runner-runner for a straight), I go on to win the > tournament. > > I realize I was fortunate that no one was holding an A, but was my thinking > correct when I went all-in? At that stage, only AA beats me, and given that > three went all-in, I figured at worst, I was up against was AK or QQ. MP+1 was > holding KQo, the others mucked. > > Should I do this move again if a similar opportunity presents itself? A couple non-play factors hold sway on my opinion, here. 1.) it is only $6 to play this beauty (about 20% vig, aiyah!) and 2.) if you bust out, you can be playing another one in about 50 microseconds. You have only committed 20% of your stack and in a reasonable tournament against reasonable opponents you pretty much are toast in this situation. Fortunately for you, it isn't and they aren't. If you win, you will have eliminated three players, quadrupled you stack, and be in a position to use that stack like a club with which you can break the spines of your opponents. (That would be a good thing.) You are not in danger of being busted in any single hand. So, from a purely showdown/mathematical-type standpoint you are risking 800 to win 3200, therefore the pot is laying you 4:1. A quick check of Steve Brecher's "Percentage of Pots Won with Hold'em Hands Ranked by Hand" shown on a web page at http://mentorms.best.vwh.net/poker/HE_Value.htm shows that with KK against three random opponents you will win in a showdown about 58.2% of the time. So, it is any easy call. In your happy place all your opponents are holding AQo and they only have one out between them, which someone else has wisely mucked. Paul Stine College Station, TX | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: KK vs. 3 other all-ins early in NL tourney, shorn, 21. Mar 2003 04:46 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I agree with the math, but I would have mucked to the second all-in caller as what could he possibly have that you could beat? The only hand I could think of is QQ. Maybe this is the wrong play, but with two people already all-in, I have to think I am behind. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: KK vs. 3 other all-ins early in NL tourney, Paul Stine, 21. Mar 2003 13:19 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 21. Mar 2003 04:46 shorn wrote: > I agree with the math, but I would have mucked to the second all-in caller as what could > he possibly have that you could beat? The only hand I could think of is QQ. Maybe this > is the wrong play, but with two people already all-in, I have to think I am behind. Well, given the marginal utility of $6 and the fact the reasonable players might be non-exisitant in the game, I think you have to go with the math. Now if it was a 6 trillion dollar tournament againt highly skilled player ... Paul Stine College Station, TX | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: KK vs. 3 other all-ins early in NL tourney, stdioh, 21. Mar 2003 10:20 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I think that you've got to make the call. Yes, AA beats you and if the board hits an ace you should be dead too, but it's worth it if you win. I would assume that with 3 players all in you've probably got any combination of JJ, QQ, AA, AK, AQ, AJ - we're not talking about expert players here, so these are all reasonable. Now, if you've got an AA against you, you're boned, but it is worth the risk to quadruple your money. You have JJ and QQ totally dominated so you would love to be up against both of them. Likewise, you'd love to be against an AK and you're a pretty strong favourite against AQ and AJ. The best thing about this is that assuming there is no AA, you've got command over most boards as your opponents couterfeit eachother. Chances are that there are about 6-8 cards in the deck that can improve somebody to a better hand than yours...that pretty much gives you a 50% chance to win the whole thing. And if you win this hand, then you're sitting on an enormous stack and are pretty much guaranteed to money in the tournament. So I would break it down thusly: Chance of nobody having AA - very subjective, but I would say 4/5 in this case. Multiply that by your chance of winning if nobody has an ace - 2/5 total. So I would say that you have a 40% chance of guaranteeing yourself at least double your buy-in and a 60% chance of losing. I would take that shot every time, since you greatly increase your chances of winning the tournament, placing better than just in the money, etc. Conversely, if I were playing against players who are not terrible and a third all-in call was made, I would assume that at least one of the three players had AA and I would be out of there in a flash. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: KK vs. 3 other all-ins early in NL tourney, shorn, 21. Mar 2003 11:07 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 21. Mar 2003 10:20 stdioh wrote: > I think that you've got to make the call. Yes, AA beats you and if the board hits an > ace you should be dead too, but it's worth it if you win. I would assume that with 3 > players all in you've probably got any combination of JJ, QQ, AA, AK, AQ, AJ - we're > not talking about expert players here, so these are all reasonable. Now, if you've > got an AA against you, you're boned, but it is worth the risk to quadruple your > money. You have JJ and QQ totally dominated so you would love to be up against both > of them. Likewise, you'd love to be against an AK and you're a pretty strong > favourite against AQ and AJ. The best thing about this is that assuming there is no > AA, you've got command over most boards as your opponents couterfeit eachother. > Chances are that there are about 6-8 cards in the deck that can improve somebody to a > better hand than yours...that pretty much gives you a 50% chance to win the whole > thing. And if you win this hand, then you're sitting on an enormous stack and are > pretty much guaranteed to money in the tournament. > > So I would break it down thusly: Chance of nobody having AA - very subjective, but I > would say 4/5 in this case. Multiply that by your chance of winning if nobody has an > ace - 2/5 total. > > So I would say that you have a 40% chance of guaranteeing yourself at least double > your buy-in and a 60% chance of losing. I would take that shot every time, since you > greatly increase your chances of winning the tournament, placing better than just in > the money, etc. > > Conversely, if I were playing against players who are not terrible and a third > all-in call was made, I would assume that at least one of the three players had AA > and I would be out of there in a flash. Great analysis stdioh. You have changed my mind. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: KK vs. 3 other all-ins early in NL tourney, stdioh, 24. Mar 2003 11:30 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| > Great analysis stdioh. You have changed my mind. No problems. Thanks for stroking my ego :) | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: KK vs. 3 other all-ins early in NL tourney, TOM WAGGONER, 23. Mar 2003 07:23 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I would say that if you are up against players that will move all in with hands like AK and AQ, then that makes your KK's that much stronger. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: KK vs. 3 other all-ins early in NL tourney, Josh, 28. Mar 2003 15:22 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| The one thing you must realize when playing in these tourneys, is that the only hand you should be willing to lose all your chips with preflop is AA, (early rounds only) other than that sit back and wait for a better opportunity. Nothing worst than running into some horrible playing going all-in with A2 and catching an Ace to take down your kings. There will always be better opportunities, and self-decipline will always rule! | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| POKER FORUM HOME | POKER FORUM | LINK TO US | ARCHIVE | ONLINE POKER | Copyright 2002, United Poker Forum |
|
Getting Started |
UPF Tournaments |
Poker News, Views, Rules |
Poker Strategy & Psychology |
Money and Bankroll Poker Bonuses & Promotions | World Series of Poker (WSOP) | Play Online Poker | Poker Odds & Statistics | Tournament Poker | Poker Books, Videos & Learning Tools Looking for a Poker Game | Poker Bad Beats | Not Quite Poker | Quizzes and Polls | Forum Suggestions & Bugs |
|
|
|
|
Interesting Links: Online Poker | Free Poker Games | United Poker Network |
|