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Server Time: 11/21/2008 12:23:57 AM PACIFIC |
 Score one for Saddam, stdioh, 12. Mar 2003 07:56 | ||
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| So I was playing the 10-20 in Brantford this morning and Saddam was at my table. The nickname comes from the fact that he is from Iraq and he is a huge maniac. An interesting hand unfolded that I want to share. First, some background on Saddam in the form of a hand summary. A couple of weeks ago I am very tempted to muck my AK after flopping two aces because there is gigantic action and I don't tighten up. Saddam was holding A9 and was so upset to be outkicked. I've seen him 5-bet into the nuts on multiple occaisions. He's a giant fish. That said, here's today's little craptacular profit-killer. I'm sitting in on the puck, there's a massive rock in the SB and Saddam is in the BB. I raise my JQo for a steal and the rock calls; Saddam raises. Now I do something odd - I raise at the rock knowing that if he calls he has certainly got KK or AA...nothing else he would call my cap with. Knowing his hand for certain is worth the raise if he calls and folding him is even better. The rock folded and Saddam called. Now the flop comes 9TK - my miracle flop, but with a flush draw. I'm holding the jack of spades (the suit of the flush) and heads-up, the flush isn't a huge concern. I have the current nuts. Saddam bets out and I raise, he reraises and I 4-bet. He 5-bets it and I think that it's possible I have him beat, but most likely that we are chopping. If he's also holding JQ (and he would raise this garbage to no end preflop nomatter the action) then he may have the queen of spades and I don't want him beating me with a backdoor flush. Enough then - I call. Turn card is a spade - he bets and I call. River card is an unsuited ace and he bets again. So now the board is AKT9X with a spade-flush. I figure that there is no way he could have the flush, due to his action on the hand, and start jamming it for value. At this point I figure that he's either chopping with me or that I've caught him with a set (pocket kings?) and can make some real money. I raise, he reraises and I 4-bet. He 5-bets and now I call. Sure enough, he's holding A7 of spades. He didn't have so much as a pair on the flop and was betting heavilly on his nut flush draw. The worst part of this story is that I was the one to look like a big dope as I was the one 4-betting into the nuts this time. I left the cardroom in disgrace and headed to my day-job. Next time we meet Saddam, I'm going to get you. -stdioh | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, Nathaniel Brous, 12. Mar 2003 09:18 | ||
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| Amusing story. I find it hard to believe you played the river that way. Your posts are always rational and well thought out. You come across as a solid player. Why burst our bubble? lol Seriously though, you "know," he is a maniac. Maniac's are known to bet out on nut flush draw (or a lot less). But the fact that he's a maniac doesn't stop him from getting the hands now and then. As soon as he saw that flop you were toast. Preflop- Poor, even as an isolation tactic, you have a hand easily dominated. bad players get good cards too. Flop-Good, got money in but recognized your hand is only temp. nuts and draws are out Turn-Good, bummer card, your jack helps you make this call down easier, his previous play makes it difficult to fold River- EEEK! Huh? You know he is a maniac. You only called on the turn. Why are you changing your mind now? While it is good to know you are human, I would like to read the post where you get your money back from Saddam. - Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, Paul Stine, 12. Mar 2003 11:42 | ||
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| on 12. Mar 2003 09:18 Nathaniel Brous wrote: > Amusing story. I find it hard to believe you played the river that way. Your posts > are always rational and well thought out. You come across as a solid player. Why > burst our bubble? lol > > Seriously though, you "know," he is a maniac. Maniac's are known to bet out on nut > flush draw (or a lot less). But the fact that he's a maniac doesn't stop him from > getting the hands now and then. As soon as he saw that flop you were toast. > > Preflop- Poor, even as an isolation tactic, you have a hand easily dominated. bad > players get good cards too. > > Flop-Good, got money in but recognized your hand is only temp. nuts and draws are > out > > Turn-Good, bummer card, your jack helps you make this call down easier, his previous > play makes it difficult to fold > > River- EEEK! Huh? You know he is a maniac. You only called on the turn. Why are > you changing your mind now? > > While it is good to know you are human, I would like to read the post where you get > your money back from Saddam. - Nathaniel Brous I pretty much agree with Nathaniel with the expection that I think you played it well pre-flop. You engaged in aggressive betting with good position aimed at gaining information as well as building a good pot. Paul Stine College Station, TX | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, stdioh, 12. Mar 2003 12:41 | ||
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| > I pretty much agree with Nathaniel with the expection that I think you played it well > pre-flop. You engaged in aggressive betting with good position aimed at gaining > information as well as building a good pot. Fair enough, and thanks for the props on the preflop play. At least I didn't do as badly as Shipley with his J6 in the WSOP last year :) | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, Nathaniel Brous, 12. Mar 2003 13:57 | ||
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| on 12. Mar 2003 11:42 Paul Stine wrote: > I pretty much agree with Nathaniel with the expection that I think you played it well pre-flop. You engaged in aggressive betting with good position aimed at gaining information as well as building a good pot. > Paul Stine > College Station, TX Hey Paul. Hey stdioh. It's obvious you were not posting on how pleased you were with your play. Here's further reasoning on why I think the preflop raise was poor. I think the information that the SB was a "massive rock," is very important here (unless that was an exaggeration). Most "massive rocks," won't call your raise (even if you are a chronic button raiser), without AA,KK,QQ,AK and maybe JJ and AQs. After all, it's three times the money they have already invested. But, since he did call your original raise, I would be skeptical that my cap (combined with Saddam's rep) would release him. There is certainly a time and place for your preflop play, I just think that playing the way you did in this situation (holding QJo) does not hold a posev. As you said, if the SB calls you are likely toast (paraphrasing). If he doesn't you still have to get past Saddam. I don't have a program to get the stats, but I am guessing that all the way down to A5s would have QJo dominated. If someone knows for sure, I'd be interested. Please keep the posts coming. Thanks. - Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, stdioh, 12. Mar 2003 14:35 | ||
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| on 12. Mar 2003 13:57 Nathaniel Brous wrote: > on 12. Mar 2003 11:42 Paul Stine wrote: > > I pretty much agree with Nathaniel with the expection that I think you played it well > pre-flop. You engaged in aggressive betting with good position aimed at gaining information as > well as building a good pot. > > Paul Stine > > College Station, TX > > Hey Paul. Hey stdioh. > It's obvious you were not posting on how pleased you were with your play. Here's further > reasoning on why I think the preflop raise was poor. I think the information that the SB was a > "massive rock," is very important here (unless that was an exaggeration). Most "massive > rocks," won't call your raise (even if you are a chronic button raiser), without AA,KK,QQ,AK > and maybe JJ and AQs. After all, it's three times the money they have already invested. But, > since he did call your original raise, I would be skeptical that my cap (combined with Saddam's > rep) would release him. > > There is certainly a time and place for your preflop play, I just think that playing the way > you did in this situation (holding QJo) does not hold a posev. As you said, if the SB calls > you are likely toast (paraphrasing). If he doesn't you still have to get past Saddam. I don't > have a program to get the stats, but I am guessing that all the way down to A5s would have QJo > dominated. If someone knows for sure, I'd be interested. Please keep the posts coming. > Thanks. - Nathaniel Brous I agree with your assessment of the big rock's likely holdings, but I also know this player fairly well and know that he simply does not call a capped preflop without AA or KK. My point is that if he does call then yes, he has the best of it, but through my knowing his hand and the fact that there is a third player in the hand I will a) not get sucked in if he has me beat on the flop and b) will suck him in if I have him beat on the flop. You could have the worst possible cards all the time, but if your opponents were playing their cards face up (to you, not to eachother), you would have no problems making money. That said, I do agree with you that in the general case, raising into a rock who has called is beyond stupid. | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, Paul Stine, 12. Mar 2003 14:35 | ||
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| Nathaniel, Preface: Maybe I am interpreting "massive rock" as "cranky old rock" but I already have the rest of this written, so here goes. - PS I think I understand where you are coming from here (because I have been handcuffed (in my opinion) by that style of thinking for a long time and it doesn't work for me) but I certainly could be wrong. That being said, I think to fail to raise and then cap (given the opportunity) here is a mistake. A "massive rock" with a reasonable holding here will call the single raise while in the SB, but in order to call two bets after the BB (maniac or not) raised from the BB and the button caps it a "massive rock" (if he truly is a "massive rock" will need "real strength (tm)". Now, if the SB call the two raises cold you can put him on "real strength (tm)" and not "reasonable tickets" that are worth calling 1-1/2 bets which might be a steal. Try and think of this from the perspective of the other players; a "massive rock" and a brain dead, flatliner: Button raises -> MR thinks: that blankity-blank is trying to steal my blind, again. I'm going to call his raise with my 77 so I can flop a set and skewer his fancy pants right up on it. BB (maniac) thinks: Ugh! Re-raise. Our hero: maybe I can push the SB off his hand with another bet here, He might fold for just the BB's three bet, but I'll add another turn to the screw. SB: Dagg-nabbit! That idiot in the BB raised and the Button capped it. The BB must have "real strength (tm)" I'm gonna get the heck outta here and save my precious two small bets. BB: Ugh! call. The situation here is like a baseball hanging on a string to a big league slugger! Could it go bad? Hell, yes! but I will cross that bridge when I come to it. Worrying about outcomes are for non-situational players. I'm playing my situation here and my cards are backing me up. If I can't win hands that I am nott supposed to win (given my cards) as well as those that I am supposed to win, I will never be a winning player. (Thanks to Barry Tannenbaum for that bit of insight.) If you can knock out the player that would have had the best hand in a game of showdown, how does that effect your EV? Positively? You bet it does! I would really like to hear Roy's thoughts on this because it reminds me a bit of a Card Player column he wrote in the last couple month. (It was about the effect on edge of folding a hand before the flop hand once in the pot.) I love the discussion here. For anyone that missed out on it, this is what R.G.P. used to be like. Paul Stine College Station, TX on 12. Mar 2003 13:57 Nathaniel Brous wrote: > on 12. Mar 2003 11:42 Paul Stine wrote: > > I pretty much agree with Nathaniel with the expection that I think you played it well > pre-flop. You engaged in aggressive betting with good position aimed at gaining information as > well as building a good pot. > > Paul Stine > > College Station, TX > > Hey Paul. Hey stdioh. > It's obvious you were not posting on how pleased you were with your play. Here's further > reasoning on why I think the preflop raise was poor. I think the information that the SB was a > "massive rock," is very important here (unless that was an exaggeration). Most "massive > rocks," won't call your raise (even if you are a chronic button raiser), without AA,KK,QQ,AK > and maybe JJ and AQs. After all, it's three times the money they have already invested. But, > since he did call your original raise, I would be skeptical that my cap (combined with Saddam's > rep) would release him. > > There is certainly a time and place for your preflop play, I just think that playing the way > you did in this situation (holding QJo) does not hold a posev. As you said, if the SB calls > you are likely toast (paraphrasing). If he doesn't you still have to get past Saddam. I don't > have a program to get the stats, but I am guessing that all the way down to A5s would have QJo > dominated. If someone knows for sure, I'd be interested. Please keep the posts coming. > Thanks. - Nathaniel Brous > > | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, Nathaniel Brous, 12. Mar 2003 17:45 | ||
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| Cool thoughts. I certainly agree with the play, just not with the holdings. It's possible I undervalue QJo. Damm. Now I am going to have to make yet another poker purchase (I actually don't mind at all. he he). Can anyone recommend some software? Is it Poker Probe that I am looking for? - Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, Paul Stine, 12. Mar 2003 20:19 | ||
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| Nathaniel, You might want to try Steve Brecher's Hold'em Showdown. It's not Poker Probe, but it works for Hold'em and it is freely available. You can download it at www.brecware.com. Hold'em Showdown does an exhaustive solution (as long as the trial-space is not too large) to compare starting hands in Hold'em. For example, if I put QdJh in against a single unknown hand I get the following (after about 2.1 billion trials and takes a while on a fast computer): 2,097,572,400 pots with board cards: (unspecified) QdJh Unknown % chance of outright win 56.906232 40.636852 % chance of win or split 59.363148 43.093768 expected return, % of pot 58.134690 41.865310 fair pot odds:1 0.720143 1.388612 pots won: 1219417205.50 878155194.50 QhJd against As7s (about 1.7 million trials), yields: 1,712,304 pots with board cards: (unspecified) QdJh As7s % chance of outright win 41.288288 58.314703 % chance of win or split 41.685297 58.711712 expected return, % of pot 41.486792 58.513208 fair pot odds:1 1.410406 0.709016 pots won: 710380.00 1001924.00 Against two unknown hands, before the flop, the simulation would probably take prohibitively long. (Yep, about 1.9 trillion trials.) Paul Stine College Station, TX | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, Nathaniel Brous, 12. Mar 2003 20:46 | ||
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| Much obliged sir (tipping hat). Until next time (galloping off into the sunset). - Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, stdioh, 13. Mar 2003 07:42 | ||
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| on 12. Mar 2003 20:19 Paul Stine wrote: > Nathaniel, > > You might want to try Steve Brecher's Hold'em Showdown. It's not Poker Probe, but it works for Hold'em and it > is freely available. You can download it at www.brecware.com. > > Hold'em Showdown does an exhaustive solution (as long as the trial-space is not too large) to compare > starting hands in Hold'em. For example, if I put QdJh in against a single unknown hand I get the following > (after about 2.1 billion trials and takes a while on a fast computer): > > 2,097,572,400 pots with board cards: (unspecified) > > QdJh Unknown > % chance of outright win 56.906232 40.636852 > % chance of win or split 59.363148 43.093768 > expected return, % of pot 58.134690 41.865310 > fair pot odds:1 0.720143 1.388612 > pots won: 1219417205.50 878155194.50 > > QhJd against As7s (about 1.7 million trials), yields: > > 1,712,304 pots with board cards: (unspecified) > > QdJh As7s > % chance of outright win 41.288288 58.314703 > % chance of win or split 41.685297 58.711712 > expected return, % of pot 41.486792 58.513208 > fair pot odds:1 1.410406 0.709016 > pots won: 710380.00 1001924.00 > > Against two unknown hands, before the flop, the simulation would probably take prohibitively long. (Yep, > about 1.9 trillion trials.) > > Paul Stine > College Station, TX One slight tweak - I was holding Js and counterfeiting one of his flush cards...not that it matters that much. | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, Nathaniel Brous, 13. Mar 2003 08:44 | ||
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| Tweaked. QdJh vs As7s outright win = 41.28 vs. 58.31 QdJs vs As7s outright win = 41.97 vs. 57.55 Not much is correct, when you use the spade you lose all the heart flush compensation(apparently a favorable trade). Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, stdioh, 13. Mar 2003 07:40 | ||
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| on 12. Mar 2003 17:45 Nathaniel Brous wrote: > Cool thoughts. I certainly agree with the play, just not with the holdings. It's possible I undervalue > QJo. Damm. Now I am going to have to make yet another poker purchase (I actually don't mind at all. he > he). Can anyone recommend some software? Is it Poker Probe that I am looking for? > - Nathaniel Brous It is hard to undervalue JQo...the hand is a little oinker. Just that it is *still* much better than a random hand. | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, Paul Stine, 13. Mar 2003 08:15 | ||
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| on 13. Mar 2003 07:40 stdioh wrote: > on 12. Mar 2003 17:45 Nathaniel Brous wrote: > > Cool thoughts. I certainly agree with the play, just not with the holdings. It's possible I undervalue > > QJo. Damm. Now I am going to have to make yet another poker purchase (I actually don't mind at all. he > > he). Can anyone recommend some software? Is it Poker Probe that I am looking for? > > - Nathaniel Brous > > It is hard to undervalue JQo...the hand is a little oinker. Just that it is *still* much better than a random > hand. Actually, as shown, it is about a 3:2 favorite over a random hand. Now, in limit ring play that is a nice edge, but in, say, a no-rebuy, no-limit tournament it is not the kind of edge on which I want to balance all my chips. Paul Stine College Station, TX | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, stdioh, 13. Mar 2003 11:56 | ||
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| on 13. Mar 2003 08:15 Paul Stine wrote: > on 13. Mar 2003 07:40 stdioh wrote: > > on 12. Mar 2003 17:45 Nathaniel Brous wrote: > > > Cool thoughts. I certainly agree with the play, just not with the holdings. It's possible I undervalue > > > QJo. Damm. Now I am going to have to make yet another poker purchase (I actually don't mind at all. he > > > he). Can anyone recommend some software? Is it Poker Probe that I am looking for? > > > - Nathaniel Brous > > > > It is hard to undervalue JQo...the hand is a little oinker. Just that it is *still* much better than a random > > hand. > > Actually, as shown, it is about a 3:2 favorite over a random hand. Now, in limit ring play that is a nice edge, > but in, say, a no-rebuy, no-limit tournament it is not the kind of edge on which I want to balance all my chips. Agreed! Ring games...especially when played against bad players, are very much a degeneration of poker. You often have correct odds to make strange draws and you can bet marginal edges with impunity. | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, stdioh, 12. Mar 2003 12:40 | ||
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| Indeed. I should have just made a crying call on the river. The thing is that he couldn't have a pat hand on the flop and a flush draw. I decided that he *must* have had a pat hand to go six bets on the flop and therefore considered my nut straight the defacto nuts. I *was* overzealous and it did cost me. And yes, if somebody told me they would play it this way, I would tell them that it is a bad idea to do so. As for my preflop play, I'm defending that on the basis of it being a question of table texture. After all, I am playing a steal from the puck against the BB. And like I said, the raise was targetting the SB. But indeed, I didn't post this to show off because I know I played it wrong to the tune of 4 BB, but I just thought that it would make an interesting and thought provoking read. I can look at that hand as a waste of 4 hours at 1 BB/hour and it's not that bad if I think of it as such. | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, Andrew Wells, 12. Mar 2003 12:33 | ||
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| Why wait for the river to start raising? If he's on a set which is quite likely, you should want to get some bets in on the turn. I'd probably have raised on the turn, called the reraise and just called on the river. Either you chop with QJ, beat the set or lose to the flush. By the river it's much more likely you chop or lose, than are up against a set. That's assuming he'll play anything. | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, stdioh, 12. Mar 2003 12:43 | ||
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| on 12. Mar 2003 12:33 Andrew Wells wrote: > Why wait for the river to start raising? If he's on a set which is quite likely, you > should want to get some bets in on the turn. I'd probably have raised on the turn, > called the reraise and just called on the river. Either you chop with QJ, beat the > set or lose to the flush. By the river it's much more likely you chop or lose, than > are up against a set. That's assuming he'll play anything. I was afraid that he might make a backdoor flush with the Qs. I had put in an aweful lot of bets, so I was feeling relatively certain that there would be a chop without a backdoor flush. That relative certainty wasn't enough to prevent me from going bananas on the river. In retrospect, I was a little too eager to punish a fishy player and it came back and bit me in the ass. | ||
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| Re: Score one for Saddam, TOM WAGGONER, 12. Mar 2003 14:18 | ||
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| I agree with your pre-flop play here. If the SB is a rock, he will likely fold too two more bets cold, and if the BB is a maniac he will raise with a wide range of hands of lesser value than yours. | ||
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