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Server Time: 10/11/2008 11:21:24 PM PACIFIC |
 What's the odds., Hatchet Harry, 2. Mar 2003 15:50 | ||
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| 2 odds questions. I had back to back pocket A's today. Wondering what the odds are? (Slow played em both and they both held up in a multi way pot!! hehe) Also, I've been thinking recently on the % advantage that overcards give you heads up. All other things being equal IE suits, gaps etc. What is the advantage in % terms when you hold 2 overcards on your opponent before the flop? | ||
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| Re: What's the odds., Andrew Kinsman, 2. Mar 2003 23:05 | ||
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| Hi Harry, 1. The odds of getting pocket aces two hands in a row are around 50,000-1. The odds of them also both standing up when slowplayed are probably more like 5 million-1! Having said that, of course if you have already just been dealt pocket aces in the previous hand, then it is 'only' 220-1 against getting them again in the very next hand. 2. Taking the 'offsuit' example of Jc Td vs 6h 5s, the overcards are 65% favourite, in other words roughly 2-1 on. You might like to try out the excellent free online tool at http://www.twodimes.net/poker/ if you want to run some of these 'hot and cold' simulations yourself. Hope that helps! | ||
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| Re: What's the odds., Hatchet Harry, 3. Mar 2003 09:39 | ||
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| 50,000 to 1!!!!! man that means i might be 80 before it happens again -) Thx for the info...and the link. Cheers Harry | ||
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| Re: What's the odds., stdioh, 3. Mar 2003 09:54 | ||
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| > 1. The odds of getting pocket aces two hands in a row are around 50,000-1. The odds No no no no no. The odds of getting AA twice in a row is equal to the odds of getting AA on a *given* hand. Essentially, you are going to get aces many times. The odds of getting it twice in a row are equal to the odds of getting it on that hand after you've had it once. So if you've just had aces then you have a 1/221 chance of getting them again. The odds of having aces three times in a row are just under 1/50,000 which are the odds of having consecutive AA on demand. But having consecutive pocket aces happens all the time. > of them also both standing up when slowplayed are probably more like 5 million-1! Depending on how many callers you had, your odds for both of them holding up go down by as much as a factor of 9. If you have 9 callers then your aces have about a 1/3 chance of winning against random hands. > Having said that, of course if you have already just been dealt pocket aces in the > previous hand, then it is 'only' 220-1 against getting them again in the very next > hand. Indeed, which is why having AA twice in a row is not so uncommon. | ||
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| Re: What's the odds., Andrew Kinsman, 5. Mar 2003 08:27 | ||
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| Okay, yes, I did phrase this really badly. I should have just said that any individual can expect to receive pocket aces on consecutive hands once in every 50,000 or so hands on average. Having said that, your statement: 'But having consecutive pocket aces happens all the time,' is patently incorrect. I have played well over 50,000 online hands in the past year and not once received consecutive pocket aces, but clearly that is nothing to be concerned about. | ||
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| Re: What's the odds., stdioh, 5. Mar 2003 09:33 | ||
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| on 5. Mar 2003 08:27 Andrew Kinsman wrote: > Okay, yes, I did phrase this really badly. I should have just said that any individual can > expect to receive pocket aces on consecutive hands once in every 50,000 or so hands on average. > > > Having said that, your statement: 'But having consecutive pocket aces happens all the time,' > is patently incorrect. I have played well over 50,000 online hands in the past year and not > once received consecutive pocket aces, but clearly that is nothing to be concerned about. > When I say that it happens all the time, I don't mean that it should happen to you all the time. What I mean is that it happens a lot in a cardroom, etc. For instance I play in a room with 80 seats and there are probably 35 hands per hour...and it is sometimes not chalk-a-block full, so it should happen about once a day there. Considering that a royal flush should come up on board there about once every 3 or 4 years, I would say that consecutive aces being dealt to a play happen all the time :) | ||
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