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Server Time: 10/11/2008 11:10:47 PM PACIFIC |
 pot odds question, Jeremy, 23. Feb 2003 18:46 | ||
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| Just recently I downloaded JasonHoldEm's pot odds calculator, which he posted how to get on the forum. Now this may be a stupid question so bear with me. One of the things the program does is gives you odds for improving your hand on the next card. His program shows that for example you are getting 4.22 to 1 of catching your flush on the turn with four cards to the flush on the flop or 9 outs. But your chances of improving by the river are 1.857-1. Now the question I have is are you correct in calling a bet on the flop if lets say the pot is laying you 4-1? Now my next question is if you don't hit the flush on the turn and your odds of hitting it on the river are 4.11-1 do you call the turn bet also? I used to think you would but now after thinking it over I think thats where I may be leaking a lot of money away. Thanks for any inputs in advance. Thanks for the calculator Jason it may be saving me some money. Jeremy | ||
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| Re: pot odds question, JasonHoldEm, 23. Feb 2003 19:16 | ||
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| Hey there, Jeremy brings up an interesting point here, and I'm not 100% positive the program works correctly in this sense... The way I calculate "odds of improving your hand" (on the next card). Number of unseen cards - number of outs = X X / number of outs = Y Odds would be Y:1 for your hand to improve on the next card. So if you had nine outs (four to a flush) on the flop your odds of getting the flush on the turn would be: 47 (unseen cards) - 9 (outs) = 38 (cards that won't help you) 38 / 9 = 4.22 Odds of hitting your flush would therefore be 4.22:1. I'm pretty sure this is correct, and my program simply suggests you call if your pot odds are better than this ratio or fold if they're not. I'm not sure whether it would be proper to forecast odds on the turn (i.e. coming up with a calculation for your hand to improve on *either* the turn or river when viewed from the flop) in relation to pot odds, since you can't accurately predict what those odds will be (i.e you might be getting the proper odds to call on the flop, but not the turn). Anyways, please help us figure this out, because if my program is in error I want to get it fixed quickly. If anyone wants to take a look at the program you can download it (for free) from my yahoo briefcase. I need to add you to my list before you can access the files, so just send me an email (jasonholdem@hotmail.com) with your yahoo ID and I'll get you on the list ASAP. Thanks, Jason | ||
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| Re: pot odds question, stdioh, 24. Feb 2003 06:21 | ||
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| on 23. Feb 2003 19:16 JasonHoldEm wrote: > Hey there, > > Jeremy brings up an interesting point here, and I'm not 100% positive the program > works correctly in this sense... > > The way I calculate "odds of improving your hand" (on the next card). > > Number of unseen cards - number of outs = X > X / number of outs = Y > Odds would be Y:1 for your hand to improve on the next card. > > So if you had nine outs (four to a flush) on the flop your odds of getting the flush > on the turn would be: > > 47 (unseen cards) - 9 (outs) = 38 (cards that won't help you) > 38 / 9 = 4.22 > Odds of hitting your flush would therefore be 4.22:1. > > I'm pretty sure this is correct, and my program simply suggests you call if your pot > odds are better than this ratio or fold if they're not. > > I'm not sure whether it would be proper to forecast odds on the turn (i.e. coming up > with a calculation for your hand to improve on *either* the turn or river when viewed > from the flop) in relation to pot odds, since you can't accurately predict what those > odds will be (i.e you might be getting the proper odds to call on the flop, but not > the turn). > > Anyways, please help us figure this out, because if my program is in error I want to > get it fixed quickly. > > If anyone wants to take a look at the program you can download it (for free) from my > yahoo briefcase. I need to add you to my list before you can access the files, so > just send me an email (jasonholdem@hotmail.com) with your yahoo ID and I'll get you > on the list ASAP. Of course it matters if there is another card coming. For instance if you have an up/down straight draw and a flush draw with overcards, then (assuming that your opponent doesn't have a piece of it), you are a favourite to win. Your number of outs is still less than half the remaining cards, but because you know there are two cards coming then you know you have a high probability of winning so you should be putting money into the pot. Now if the turn doesn't help you then your pot odds go down because you know that there is only one more card coming. This is a mistake many players make...folding on the flop because there isn't enough money right now to warrant a call. You must also look at implied odds...in that if you make your draw, you know that you'll be able to extract more bets. Of course this relates to reads, table texture, and other factors too. | ||
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| Re: pot odds question, Jeremy, 24. Feb 2003 06:39 | ||
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| So lets's say it's heads up on the turn and I have still not made my flush I should call a bet only if I think I can get a check-raise or raise, depending on the position, and fold the turn if I think the player will check if the flush card hits? Jeremy | ||
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| Re: pot odds question, shorn, 24. Feb 2003 08:28 | ||
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| on 24. Feb 2003 06:39 Jeremy wrote: > So lets's say it's heads up on the turn and I have still not made my flush I should call a bet > only if I think I can get a check-raise or raise, depending on the position, and fold the turn > if I think the player will check if the flush card hits? > Jeremy No. If the pot is still laying you proper odds to draw (37/9 = 4.22 to 1), then you lose money if you fold. You will generally get a call on the river even when the flush card comes (unless your opponent is really nervous or the board is so raggedy that the only thing you could have is a flush) due to the pot size. You are not calling to win 1 or two more bets; you are calling not to lose the bets that are in the pot already. | ||
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| Re: pot odds question, JasonHoldEm, 24. Feb 2003 08:47 | ||
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| on 24. Feb 2003 06:21 stdioh wrote: > Of course it matters if there is another card coming. For instance if you have an up/down > straight draw and a flush draw with overcards, then (assuming that your opponent doesn't > have a piece of it), you are a favourite to win. Your number of outs is still less than > half the remaining cards, but because you know there are two cards coming then you know > you have a high probability of winning so you should be putting money into the pot. Now if > the turn doesn't help you then your pot odds go down because you know that there is only > one more card coming. This is a mistake many players make...folding on the flop because > there isn't enough money right now to warrant a call. You must also look at implied > odds...in that if you make your draw, you know that you'll be able to extract more bets. > Of course this relates to reads, table texture, and other factors too. So basically, based on your implied pot odds, it would be appropriate (in certain situations) to call even if you're not getting the proper pot odds on the flop? What would be the best way to calculate these pot odds/ drawing odds, and what would those situations be? Thanks for the help, hopefully I can edit the program to work better in this situation. Jason | ||
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| Re: pot odds question, stdioh, 24. Feb 2003 13:54 | ||
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| > So basically, based on your implied pot odds, it would be appropriate (in certain situations) > to call even if you're not getting the proper pot odds on the flop? What would be the best way > to calculate these pot odds/ drawing odds, and what would those situations be? > > Thanks for the help, hopefully I can edit the program to work better in this situation. It is very difficult to quantify implied odds...they depend on tonnes of factors. Some of them are: Are you playing against players who cannot resist betting if it is checked to them? How strong does you opponent(s) seem to be right now? Am I drawing to an unlikely hand? (ie, I have a set, but there is a 4-straight on board) Does the table respect me? I've played in games where I've rivered the nuts and had the river capped with three other players. Implied odds are huge here obviously, so it's ok to draw to crappier hands. I've also been at tables so weak that only monster hands were getting shown down - at these tables, bluffing is worth a fortune, so semi-bluffing your bad draws can pay off large. I think that factoring these things into a program would be very difficult, but you could include some sort of X-factor in the form of, "How many bets do you think you can get if you make your hand?" | ||
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| Re: pot odds question, JasonHoldEm, 24. Feb 2003 14:43 | ||
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| That sounds do-able...although (another reason I didn't implement something like this originally), is that having a person estimate anything is generally a bad idea :-( How about this: What if I added a Select type of table option with the choices being loose, normal, or tight. That way I could soften up the odds for loose tables and perhaps even increase them a little for tight tables...(with normal just being the straight odds). I'm not sure exactly how much I should alter the odds, so if you have any ideas (10-25%?, more? less?) please feel free to suggest them. Also, I found out that the program is small enough (~60K) I can just attach it to an email, if anyone wants it please email me (jasonholdem@hotmail.com) jason PS-> Hopefully I'll have time to add these improvements this weekend and get out a new version. | ||
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| Re: pot odds question, stdioh, 24. Feb 2003 14:53 | ||
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| > that having a person estimate anything is generally a bad idea :-( I agree...if there is one thing that beginner poker players are terrible at, it is estimating *anything*! > How about this: What if I added a Select type of table option with the choices being loose, normal, or > tight. That way I could soften up the odds for loose tables and perhaps even increase them a little for > tight tables...(with normal just being the straight odds). I think that's a good idea, though I think you would get more meaningful data by asking about table strength...weak players will pay off less often (rocks) and calling stations will pay off much more. Tighness is less important than passivity. > I'm not sure exactly how much I should alter the odds, so if you have any ideas (10-25%?, more? less?) > please feel free to suggest them. I haven't the foggiest on that one, you'd have to research it and do a lot of statistical math, I'm afraid. | ||
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