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Server Time: 11/21/2008 5:36:01 AM PACIFIC |
 Unusual hold'em question, Andrew Wells, 19. Feb 2003 16:04 | ||
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| You're in middle position playing 10-20 and raise two limpers from early position. The button calls cold. The big blind and limpers call your raise. The flop comes down 6c 6h 3d, and it is checked to you. Would you prefer to have AsJs or KsQs, and why? | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, stdioh, 19. Feb 2003 16:57 | ||
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| on 19. Feb 2003 16:04 Andrew Wells wrote: > You're in middle position playing 10-20 and raise two limpers from early > position. The button calls cold. The big blind and limpers call your raise. The > flop comes down 6c 6h 3d, and it is checked to you. Would you prefer to have > AsJs or KsQs, and why? I'd much prefer the AJ, since for a start I wouldn't be raising at preflop limpers with KQ. If they are holding aces, they are likely not as big as yours, so even without improving on the turn or river you may be good. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, Andrew Wells, 19. Feb 2003 17:27 | ||
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| I asked this of Mason Malmuth once, and was convinced by his reply. Let's see what others think first before I argue one side or the other. By the way, both hands are suited, and from middle position I raise with both. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, stdioh, 20. Feb 2003 07:18 | ||
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| on 19. Feb 2003 17:27 Andrew Wells wrote: > I asked this of Mason Malmuth once, and was convinced by his reply. Let's see what others > think first before I argue one side or the other. By the way, both hands are suited, and > from middle position I raise with both. You've really got me thinking now. In a sense, KQ might be superior, since if you hit a king, you're probably the favourite, whereas if you're playing AJ and hit an ace, you are likely not the favourite. What is the BB cold calling with after all? | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, Andrew Wells, 20. Feb 2003 11:21 | ||
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| The big blind had to only call one small bet if no backraise from early position was anticipated, so was getting roughly 9:1 expected odds on the call before the flop. There are a wide range of hands that can be played out of the big blind for those pre-flop odds. With this flop, the big blind also has the opportunity to represent a six with a potential checkraise and turn bet. If the big blind does checkraise, this makes it hard for the AsJs option to steal or get half if a trey comes on the turn or river. So having the big blind in the hand tends to reduce the power of a lone ace winning unimproved. The interesting issue is what happens to the relative strength of AsJs vs. KsQs when a supposedly harmless card ten or under (not a six or trey) comes on the turn. Curiously, I can make a case for KsQs being superior to AsJs should that occur. This should also show why it is important for either AsJs or KsQs to bet this flop as naked overcards. Understanding how to handle two big overcards with no backdoor potential after the flop is an often overlooked aspect of winning hold'em theory. Most low limit players are advised to check/fold these hands after they miss the flop, but in middle limit play they can sometimes be managed profitably against typical opponents. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, Terrence Chan, 21. Feb 2003 08:49 | ||
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| on 20. Feb 2003 07:18 stdioh wrote: > You've really got me thinking now. In a sense, KQ might be superior, since if you hit a king, > you're probably the favourite, whereas if you're playing AJ and hit an ace, you are likely not > the favourite. What is the BB cold calling with after all? I think you mean the button, not the BB. Anyway, I don't think the KQ outs being somewhat more live than the AJ outs makes up for what others have mentioned; namely, the chance of winning unimproved. This flop is extremely ragged so the chances of AJ being best are really pretty good. If you are beat it's likely by a pocket pair or AK/AQ on the button (note that you're equally screwed by AK/AQ behind you if you are holding AJ or KQ). The argument of liver outs with KQ might be valid if the flop was like T-8-2, since someone in the field could easily have a hand like AT or A8s or A2s and hitting an ace would be a big money loser in that case. But on this flop it's not a consideration, because the ace cannot make you a pair at the same time someone else makes a better two pair. AJ is certainly the preferred hand. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, stdioh, 21. Feb 2003 13:18 | ||
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| on 21. Feb 2003 08:49 Terrence Chan wrote: > on 20. Feb 2003 07:18 stdioh wrote: > > You've really got me thinking now. In a sense, KQ might be superior, since if you hit a king, > > you're probably the favourite, whereas if you're playing AJ and hit an ace, you are likely not > > the favourite. What is the BB cold calling with after all? > > I think you mean the button, not the BB. > > Anyway, I don't think the KQ outs being somewhat more live than the AJ outs makes up for what > others have mentioned; namely, the chance of winning unimproved. This flop is extremely ragged so > the chances of AJ being best are really pretty good. If you are beat it's likely by a pocket pair > or AK/AQ on the button (note that you're equally screwed by AK/AQ behind you if you are holding AJ > or KQ). > > The argument of liver outs with KQ might be valid if the flop was like T-8-2, since someone in the > field could easily have a hand like AT or A8s or A2s and hitting an ace would be a big money loser > in that case. But on this flop it's not a consideration, because the ace cannot make you a pair at > the same time someone else makes a better two pair. AJ is certainly the preferred hand. I think that's a great analysis and very concise. Thanks. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, Andrew Wells, 24. Feb 2003 14:55 | ||
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| The KQ hand is liver than AJ. It is much more likely that the early position limpers are playing hands that contain an ace or jack rather than a king or queen. You would expect a pre-flop raise more often from a hand that contained a king or queen. There are still a lot of players who will limp up front with AXs. JT, J9, and J8s are not out of the picture either. These are the type of hands that weak players will enter the pot before the flop with. Since the pot is already ten plus bets by the flop, you should not want someone with medium overcards to pair on the turn. If they do pair, you may or may not win this hand as they will have justification to see the river with top pair and a large pot. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, TOM WAGGONER, 20. Feb 2003 22:47 | ||
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| I like the AsJs better, because it has a better chance of winning without improvement. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, Andrew Wells, 24. Feb 2003 14:44 | ||
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| In order for AJ to win unimproved where KQ would not, someone has to take ace rag to showdown. The type of hands where this occurs are when someone decides to call a bet on the river where it looks like a drawing hand missed and is bluffing. This board doesn't have any drawing opportunities for a reasonable player who raised two early position limpers before the flop. Therefore if either AJ or KQ is going to win without improving, it will be due to everyone folding. This would not necessarily be true if the board cards were higher in rank, more connected, or two suited. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, SendMoney, 23. Feb 2003 17:01 | ||
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| It would be better to have the AJ than the KQ, since you have no flush possibility. In the best case scenarios: A. everyone will draw blanks and your AJ will be enough to out kick the others and win with a pair of 6s B. you'll catch an A or J on the river or turn and win with top two pair. KQ is not as good because an ace kicker can beat you if everybody draws blanks. This is a good hand to be careful in though, one of the limps might have a 3, or even a 6, or perhaps 4-5 and be drawing at an open ended straight. A bet after the flop may be appropriate, but if they don't dump immediately watch out. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, Andrew Wells, 24. Feb 2003 15:05 | ||
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| When no one catches a pair on the turn, either AJ or KQ is equally good since the hand isn't going to showdown against someone playing ace rag. I agree you have to bet the flop and continue to represent a big pair. It's very unlikely the player on the button is going to fold here, but you can not allow it to be checked around so that the big blind or one of the early position players can attempt a steal bet on the turn. You are likely to be in trouble if you are checkraised on the flop, or bet into on the turn. But it is easy to let go of either hand if the turn doesn't make you top pair. A smooth call from the big blind on the flop is also a concern, and if this occurs it might be a good idea to check on the turn if you happen to make top pair. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, shorn, 26. Feb 2003 12:53 | ||
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| on 24. Feb 2003 15:05 Andrew Wells wrote: > When no one catches a pair on the turn, either AJ or KQ is equally good since the hand > isn't going to showdown against someone playing ace rag. I agree you have to bet the flop > and continue to represent a big pair. It's very unlikely the player on the button is going > to fold here, but you can not allow it to be checked around so that the big blind or one > of the early position players can attempt a steal bet on the turn. You are likely to be in > trouble if you are checkraised on the flop, or bet into on the turn. But it is easy to let > go of either hand if the turn doesn't make you top pair. A smooth call from the big blind > on the flop is also a concern, and if this occurs it might be a good idea to check on the > turn if you happen to make top pair. I agree with you Andrew. I remember an article that Roy Cooke once wrote that stated he would rather call/bet the flop with overcards if he did not have an Ace than if he did because he figured that more people play ragged Aces than ragged Kings or Queens, so he figured he actually may have 6 clean outs that was (as people with AK and AQ would likely raise). Either way though, this is a dangerous (and frankly, poor) flop for either hand with the button clod calling 2 bets preflop. I would bet both hands on the flop and most likely fold if raised. If called and I didn't help on the turn, into the muck baby. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, Andrew Wells, 28. Feb 2003 20:35 | ||
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| It really depends on who calls on the flop, what decision to make if checked to again on the turn. That's most of the reason to make the flop bet. A call from the button on the flop would not make me want to toss those cards on the turn as much as a call from the big blind. It's almost automatic for the button not to fold to a bet on the flop having something to call two bets cold pre-flop, and even a raise from the button could be considered as helpful in either getting the big blind / limpers out, or at least giving more information to help the turn decision. I don't mind a call from one but not both of the limpers either. If I get only the right two other players to just call and see the turn (button and one of the early position limpers) then a bet on a blank turn is giving less than 8:1 pot odds which combined with the possibility that I actually have a pocket overpair is often enough for a turn bet to win uncontested against someone else holding two overcards. Those odds are right in the grey area for someone facing a bet holding two big cards which may or may not be good if they improve on the river. Any higher pot odds or another player makes it much less likely that a continued semibluff bet with either AJ or KQ will not get to the river. | ||
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| Re: Unusual hold'em question, Rockoon, 26. Feb 2003 12:29 | ||
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| I would prefer the hand least likely to make a mistake: KQs | ||
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